WiTH only three days left for the october 13 assembly elections in Maha-rashtra, india's ruling Congress and main opposition BJP have braced themselves for the crucial battle to control the second most important political state and the country's commercial capital Mumbai.

Congress, its major partner Nationalist Congress Party led by Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and other allies, which have ruled the state for the last five years after dislodging Shiv Sena-BJP combine in the previous assembly polls in 1999, are seeking to renew their hold on Maharashtra while the saffron alliance is banking on antiincumbency to regain power.

Rebellion in the ranks of all major contenders for power Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena and BJP has coloured the assembly polls making them perhaps the most-watched suspense electoral soap.

opinion polls by two leading television news channels NDTV and Aaj Tak have come out with contrasting assessment of the Maharashtra electoral outcome. While NDTV-indian Express poll projects a fractured mandate with no clear majority for either Con-gress-NCP or Shiv Sena-BJP combine, Aaj Tak-oRG-MARG predicts comfortable majority for Congress-NCP alliance with 165175 seats in the 288-member state assembly.

The elections are equally significant for Congress and BJP. This is going to be the first major electoral outing for Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government headed by Manmohan Singh since its win in parliamentary polls four months ago.

in a way, say political analysts, the polls in Maharashtra will be a measure of the people's response to UPA government. if Congress-NCP holds on to the state for another five-year term, it will provide further weight to Manmohan Singh government.

For the opposition, a positive outcome in Maharashtra would boost its morale after the stunning defeat in parliamentary elections and enthuse for future assembly elections in some other states like Bihar and Jharkhand early next year. if Congress manages to retain Maharashtra, the stature of party chief Sonia Gandhi's image, which has grown by leaps and bounds since she renounced the post of Prime Minister in May this year, will grow further. But failure to do so is likely to not only rejuvenate the opposition but increase the decibel level of dissent within UPA, say analysts.

Maharashtra, now with the second largest number of 48 parliamentary seats after Uttar Pradesh (81), has been traditionally a Congress stronghold but its hold has been weakening since the middle of 1990s yielding place to Shiv Sena and BJP.

The parliamentary polls in April-May this year saw Congress-NCP hold on the state being eroded significantly and the gainers were the saffron alliance and it remains to be seen if after five years in power, the ruling combine is able to overcome anti-incumbency.

Taking lessons from general elections this year when the party's campaign of "india Shining" and "feel-good" urban-oriented voters floundered, BJP and Shiv Sena have decided this time to emphasise on bread-and-butter issues, farmers' suicides, malnutrition deaths among poor tribals and power shortage in Maharashtra, party leaders said.

Congress-NCP as well as Sena-BJP came out with joint poll manifestoes desperately doling out sops

for farmers promising free power and waiver of outstanding loans, crop insurance and facilities for slum dwellers in Mumbai.

Shiv Sena-BJP was first off the bloc releasing their list of candidates even as Congress-NCP struggled to finalise their seat-sharing arrangements and infighting and pressure from allies delayed Congress' list of nominees for the elections till the last minute. Compulsions of coalition politics forced Congress finally to settle for contesting 154 seats, their lowest in Maharashtra's history.

The Shiv Sena will be contesting 167 seats, BJP 117 and the remaining left to their smaller allies.

The rebel factor is haunting Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena and BJP in the elections and all the four parties are trying hard to minimise the damage from the rebels by either expelling them or trying to

persuade them to pull out of the fray.

Despite the promise fielding new faces in elections, Congress finally retained most of the sitting members of the assembly, apparently to avoid large-scale rebellion in rank and file and to prevent entry of big number of rebel candidates in fray.

Congress is particularly concerned over the rebels as many of them had crossed over to smaller parties like Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party, which rely mainly on backward caste votes, in the parliamentary elections causing considerable erosion in Congress support base especially in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra where Sena-BJP did exceedingly well.

Backward castes (Dalits) are estimated to make up about 13 percent of the state's population, which is significant in terms of electoral considerations, and they are viewed as having the power to determine the outcome in 120 of the 288 seats.

There is recognition in Congress and BJP circles that a surge in BSP's electoral performance could affect all the four major parties with Congress being the hardest hit.

The BJP is also trying to regain control of Mumbai where 34 assembly seats are at stake after the saffron alliance suffered virtual rout in parliamentary elections this year, being able to win only one of the six seats.

While BJP is focusing on votes of a large number of nonMaharashtrian people in Mumbai, its ally Shiv Sena is seeking to hold on to its traditional base among Marathis. But Sena's often strident pro-Marathi posture has tended to put off a large chunk of non-Marathi voters in the metropolis.

The elections in Maharashtra is also set to become a clash of two aging political titans of the state -Sena supremo Bal Thackeray, 78, and NCP chief Sharad Pawar. For Thackeray, the coming elections could be the final chance to prove his clout and regain power for the saffron alliance. But his illness forced him to cancel most part of his electioneering, giving a jolt to Sena-BJP's prospects.

on the other hand, Pawar needs a win in the elections to retain his stature and bargaining power vis-avis Congress, with which he parted ways five years back protesting Sonia Gandhi's bid for the post of Prime Minister, in national politics.

The Maharashtra poll is also likely to determine the course NCP would take in view of demands coming from within the party from time to time for merger with parent party Congress, analysts say.

one of the interesting facets of Maharashtra assembly elections is the presence of a large number of relatives of veteran politicians in the fray, so much so that politics in the state seems to have become a family affair.

Sons, daughters, brothers, brothers-in-law and cousins are in plenty among the list of candidates of all the major parties. Then, most political families also appear to hedge their bets with different members managing to secure nominations from different parties to keep the options open, analysts said.

Pallab Bhattacharya is the New Delhi correspondent of The Daily Star.