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How does freedom for Anwar Ibrahim impact on Malaysian politics?

Harun ur Rashid
oN 2nd September, in a stunning reversal of earlier judicial pronouncements, the Malaysian Federal High Court in 2-1 verdict overturned the controversial sodomy conviction of the former Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, Anwar ibrahim (57), allowing him to walk free after six years behind bars on corruption charges. of course he could not walk because he has been bound in a wheel chair because of his spinal injuries, allegedly caused by the beatings of police after arrest.
Anwar ibrahim, who is reportedly surprised by the verdict, told reporters that he felt vindicated but bore no malice towards the retired Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammad, seen as the force behind the widely discredited prosecution and imprisonment. on the other hand, Dr. Mahathir reportedly said that he "would not lose sleep" over the decision to free Anwar ibrahim.
Anwar ibrahim has a chequered political career. He joined the ruling party in 1971, became a Minister in 1982 and Finance Minister in 1991. in 1993 he was promoted as Deputy Prime Minister. He was being groomed to succeed the PM. However, in 1998 he was not only sacked by the Prime Minister but also was expelled from the ruling Party (United Malays National organisation -- UMNo) for not being "suitable" for the party. He was sentenced for six years in 1999 on corruption charges.
Anwar ibrahim has been a charismatic politician in Malaysia and although he has been in prison for the last six years, his followers did not lend credence to the charges and continue to admire him for his forward-looking policy and his desire for reforms towards an open democracy in the country.
Rift between former PM and Anwar Ibrahim
The 1997 economic crisis in Malaysia had far-reaching effects. By January 1998, the value of the local currency had fallen by 44 per cent and the share market by 74 per cent. it was an economic disaster for Malaysia, one of the new "economic tigers" in South East Asia. Furthermore the Malaysian
economy had some structural
problems: an unusually large
current account deficit, the channelling of domestic money into unproductive sectors with large
sums spent on grandiose infrastructure projects.
The economic crisis led to a political rift in 1998 between Prime Minister Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim, Deputy Prime Minister who held the portfolio of Finance as well. Anwar Ibrahim did not agree on strategies adopted by the Prime Minister. It was believed that Anwar was more pro-western in outlook than the Prime Minister who had always criticised the exploitation by the Western capitalists, in particular foreign currency speculator George Soros. ( The US which had always considered Anwar a political
prisoner, issued a statement welcoming his release).
Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammad unexpectedly sacked Anwar ibrahim on September 2, 1998. After being sacked, Anwar ibrahim led public demonstrations on the street, calling on Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammad to step down. Protesters converged on the Prime Minister's residence and police fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse them. observers believe the public agitation against the Prime Minister was behind Anwar's arrest on September 20. Anwar ibrahim always said that he had been a victim of a conspiracy at the "highest level".
in general Malaysian people were not convinced of the charges leveled against him. At their heart, they believed that political motivations were behind his harassment and imprisonment. Since the judiciary was involved in his conviction and sentence, Dr. Mahathir always argued that he had nothing to do with the case. it was the judiciary which convicted Anwar ibrahim. As a result, the Malaysian judiciary was perceived as not "independent" of the executive.
Anawar Ibrahim is no threat to Badawi
Since the new Prime Minister avuncular Abdullah Badawi came to power, he introduced reforms and his government became much more transparent and responsive to poor people in the country. He is determined in implementing the doctrine of the separation of powers
among the executive, legislative and judiciary. Each organ has its own responsibility and discharges the constitutional role without interference.
Political observers believe that the judiciary has become "independent" during Badawi's rule and some even say that Badwai may have pulled strings to release Anwar Ibrahim. One of the visitors to Anwar Ibrahim's residence after the release was the son of the Prime Minister Badawi. This suggests that Badawi has a "soft corner" for Anwar Ibrahim, according to political Analysts.
Badawi has won back the support of Malay people who distanced themselves from the ruling party during Dr. Mahathir's period in 1999 elections. in the recent by-election the ruling party's candidate has been successful in winning the election in the Trengganu state, traditionally known to be a stronghold of the opposition party PAS (Pan Malaysian islamic Party).
Badawi has become a very popular Prime Minister because of his policies of anti-corruption and accountability as well as his non-strident style. Furthermore he has directed his attention to farmers, neglected during the previous period. it was the commercial undertakings that principally received encouragement from the government during Dr. Mahathir's time.
The release will go down favourably with those foreign fund managers who are concerned about ethics and make it a factor in their decision-making on where to invest. The share market in Malaysia has risen by nearly 1 per cent on the news.
After the release, Anwar ibrahim has left on 5th September for Germany for surgical treatment of his spinal injuries at a clinic in Munich. The doctors expect him to recover. Meanwhile, on 15th September, the Federal High Court refused to set aside the conviction for corruption and that means that he cannot join politics immediately. He has to wait until 2008 because of his conviction.
Impact on Malaysian
politics
Despite Anwar ibrahim's legal ban to join immediately politics, analysts provide possible impacts of release of Anawar ibrahim on Malaysian politics.
First, Anwar ibrahim is no threat to the Prime Minister Badawi in the prevailing political environment in the country. Anwar's political influence in politics has dwindled since his wife's party ( National Justice Party-Keadilan) has allied itself with the islamic party. Badawi has consistently advocated against the dangers of islamic fundamentalism. This stance has gained substantive ground because
Badawi himself is an islamic scholar
of repute. in the circumstances,
Anwar ibrahim's release from the prison will in fact speak well of
Badawi and will increase his popularity.
Second, Badawi wants unity among Malays in the country. Although Prime Minister Badawi ruled out any possibility of Anawar ibrahim's return to his party UMNo, his release is likely to unite Malaya people. it seems that Anwar ibrahim will not take the path of confrontation with the Prime Minister.
Third, Anwar ibrahim will be working on sidelines and in an interview he said that his mission was to democratise Malaysian politics through reforms. He said that what has happened to him should never occur for any politician in Malaysia in future.
Furthermore,his wife's party Keadilan may gradually sever relations with the PAS to return to the middle ground of politics and build a stronger support base with the electorate. Malaysia is a multiethnic and multi-religious country. A large majority of people does not like policies of islamic parties. They approve secular policies in the country. When Badawi retires, Anwar ibrahim may bounce back to UMNo, depending how widespread and strong he establishes his political base. in politics, nothing is impossible.
Conclusion
Although Anwar has always claimed that the charges of corruption and sodomy were trumped up to prevent him from making a challenge for the leadership of the country, his release from the prison has surprised every one within and outside the country. There would not have been many people who would have expected his release because his earlier appeals were consistently turned down by Courts during Dr. Mahathir's period.
Many political pundits believe that Anwar ibrahim was in prison because it suited the agenda of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad. Anwar is free because a freed Anwar suits the agenda of the incumbent Prime Minister Badawi.
Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.