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High oil price for long duration to damage Asia economy: ADB

REUTERS, Tokyo
Asian economies with fragile fundamentals, even energy-rich Indonesia, could be seriously damaged if oil prices remain high for a long time, the Asian Development Bank's chief economist said Thursday.
"The issue is not the level of prices, but the duration," Ifzal Ali told Reuters in an interview.
"For example, $40 a barrel sustained from now to the end of 2005 would be far more painful than the $50 price" lasting for two quarters, he said.
Crude oil prices have fallen nearly $6 from last week's record highs of $49.40 a barrel for Us light crude, but concerns over economic damage from high oil prices persist in Asian countries, some of which are large oil importers.
Ali, in Tokyo for the launch of an ADB report, said rises is oil prices would affect Asian countries differently depending on the country's macroeconomic policies and what stage of the business cycle it was in.
For instance, high oil prices could hurt Asian economies through deterioration in trade balances by raising import values. Inflationary pressure
from higher oil prices could also force interest rates to rise more quickly than expected, and indebted countries could find themselves stretched.
"Initial conditions are very important. It's (about) how fragile the economy is before the oil shock," Ali said, adding that the Philippines and Indonesia would be most vulnerable.
"You may ask why Indonesia... it is a net energy exporting country," Ali said.
"What is happening is that its domestic fundamentals are very fragile," he said, adding that even if Indonesia's trade balance improved due to energy revenues, it could not escape inflation pressure, which could trigger an interest rate rise.
If higher oil prices hurt economic conditions in Group of seven nations, Indonesia's exports to them could also suffer, Ali said.
Higher interest rates could become a concern for Indonesia, as they could hold down consumption and investment, restraining economy growth.
For the Philippines, Ali pointed to its high debt-to-GDP ratio, saying any interest rate increase stemming from higher oil prices could increase its debt
burden.
He reiterated the ADB's estimate that if the price of oil stays above $40 until the end of 2005, the combined gross domestic product (GDP) for Asia excluding Japan in 2005 could be around 0.8 percentage point lower than it would otherwise be.
For instance, Thailand's economic growth rate could be around 2.2 percentage points less, while GDP in the Philippines could be around 2 points less, he said.
Ali said the recent rise in oil prices has been different from past oil shocks as the price has been lifted by demand for more oil in addition to supply side factors.
"Countries like India and China, which are growing fast and which are energy inefficient, are going to demand an increasing part of the world oil supply. Oil prices will not stay at the present level but I don't think they will go back to below $30.”