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Asian exports still brisk but outlook dim: Economists

Reuters,Singapore
Fuelled by strong demand from China, three of Asia's top exporters revealed robust trade data for July, but economists said the outlook was darkening.
Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan, three exporting heavyweights, all released data Thursday showing rising exports, as China continued to suck in goods and raw materials and consumer demand from the United States remained buoyant.
But demand from those two export destinations is expected to slacken in the coming months. High oil prices are taking a toll and economists are trimming growth forecasts across the globe.
"It is fair to conclude at this stage that the economic outlook is now not as favourable as it was three months ago, and the bulk of the global economy's momentum now appears to be behind us," Societe Generale economist Glenn Maguire said.
Taiwan turned in the strongest
performance. Orders for exports -which measures exports due to take place in the weeks ahead -- surged 27.8 percent in July from a year earlier, exceeding expectations.
Japan's exports in July rose 14.3 percent from a year earlier, while Hong Kong's increased 16.5 percent.
These figures only confirmed what earlier data from the other two big exporters in Asia, South Korea and Singapore, had shown. Despite evidence that China's economy was cooling and amid mixed signals from the United States, trade-reliant Asia was on a roll.
South Korea posted a stunning 38.4 percent rise in July exports from a year earlier, while Singapore had a 17.6 percent gain.
"Slowdowns in the United States and China have yet to pose a big threat to exports," said Morgan Stanley's Osamu Tanaka, referring to the Japanese data. Osamu, the bank's Japan economist,
added that exports could slow towards the end of the year.
Analysts are unsure whether the United States is just experiencing a soft patch or whether the economy is slower than many were forecasting earlier this year. In Asia, Japan's second quarter growth disappointed market.
US data on Wednesday showed a 1.7 percent rise in durable goods orders in July from June, boosted by demand for aircraft.
However, the computers and electronics segment, which analysts use as an indicator for Asian technology exports, fell 3.8 percent in July after a 1.8 percent fall in June.
Last week, North American semiconductor capital equipment makers reported orders established in July after nearly a year of recovery, a sign the industry's recovery may have peaked.