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Vote of minorities crucial to US presidential race

HARUN UR RASHID
***While the race appears to be close at this point of time, political veterans suggest that Senator Edwards' selection raised new concerns at the White House and at the Bush-Cheney re-election headquarters. It remains to be seen how Kerry-Edwards team overcomes the challenge and criticism of the Bush-Cheney team in the coming days.***
FINALLY the 44th Democratic Convention at Boston from 26-29th July formally nominated Kerry-Edwards team for the White House. Democrats spent about US$95 million to hold the Convention at the Fleet Centre in Boston. The Convention was presided by New Mexico's Democrat Governor, Bill Richardson, former Secretary of Energy under the Clinton Administration and Ambassador to the UN in New York.
The purpose of the Convention is to "sell" John Kerry to American voters because it is reported that only 27 per cent of them know Kerry and his policies. The holding of the Convention provided Kerry full 45 minutes of uninterrupted attention to make known his policies and to show that he was strong on terrorism and security of America and would be a better President than the present incumbent. A number of retired Generals from armed forces lent their strong support to the Vietnam veteran John Kerry for the next Commanderin-Chief of the US.
On the first day, former Democratic Presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton spoke as well as former Vice- President Al Gore (who received more popular votes than President Bush in 2000 election). Later, Vice President nominee John Edwards spoke eloquently. Democratic Senators including Ted Kennedy and Hilary Rodham Clinton addressed the convention. Another young Harvard law school- educated and aspiring African-American Senate candidate from the Democratic Party, Obama (fat-her from Kenya), a rising star within the political horizon, spoke brilliantly, asking the voters to support Kerry to unite the existing divisions among the people within the US.
Clinton's electrifying performance on the first day drew a standing ovation from nearly 5,000 delegates at the Convention. Clinton promised to be a "foot soldier" for the new Democratic Presidential candidate Kerry and without directly criticising Bush, he said : "Strength and wisdom are not opposing values… many young men including the current President , Vice-President and me could have gone to Vietnam but didn't. John Kerry could have avoided going -- instead he said: ' Send me'; that bravery they saw in battle, I have seen in politics". He concluded urging the voters "to send Kerry" to the White House.
On the last day, John Kerry delivered a powerful address outlining the details of his domestic and foreign policies. The theme of the Kerry campaign to the American voters has been captured in two slogans : " Hope and Help in the Way", implying that the daily struggles of hardworking ordinary people in keeping their body and soul together will be addressed, if Kerry comes to power.
Kerry-Edwards team
Since the nomination of Senator John Edwards (51) as the running mate of Democrat Presidential contender Senator Forbes Kerry (60), some say that the personality of John Kerry has changed. He is not perceived as a "wooden" person and is getting livelier each day with his VP nominee. They hug, they embrace, they smile together at the public gathering while they attack President Bush's domestic and foreign policy.
The combination of a former Vietnam veteran and experienced four-term Senator Kerry together with the magnetic personality of Senator Edwards as the running mate against
the Bush-Cheney team is perceived a big plus for Democrats. Political observers believe that Edwards is what Kerry is not. Some media has compared them as "Yin and Yang", an ideal combination of a balanced team.
While Kerry was raised in privilege as a son of an American diplomat, Edwards is a son of a textile mill worker and sweated as a labourer to earn while as a student at the university. He struggled hard to become a lawyer and he knew poverty at first hand. Edwards' message is that under the Bush Presi-
dency, there exists "two Americas", one for the wealthy and privileged and another for everybody else. This message has won praise among ordinary Americans.
Votes of minorities crucial
Media reports indicate that the vote of minorities, in particular Hispanic, African-American and Arab-American, appears to be crucial in deciding the fate of the election in divided America. Both the Republicans and Democrats are engaged in wooing votes from the minorities at a time when America is almost equally divided as was in 2000.
Hispanic vote factor: One crucial factor in the coming race is the Hispanic vote. Hispanic (Spanish-speaking) population constitutes about 38 million in the US. During the 2000 election, it is reported that President Bush got 35 per cent of their vote and that it has now come down to 33 per cent. Both Bush and Kerry need 40 per cent of their vote, according to poll analysts, to win the election.
Although the agenda of Mexican and Cuban Americans are different in many ways, they have certain common goals, for example, improved education in public (government) schools, immigration reforms and relaxed rules for Latin American migrants and development of close political and economic relations with Latin America.
Democrats suggest that none of the goals has been achieved by the Bush administration. The Hispanics are not impressed by the Presidential candidates' speaking in halting Spanish only but they want to see actions on ground. It seems that both the teams are now vigorous in their attempts to woo Hispanic voters.
African-American vote factor: Senator Kerry has taken advantage of a spat between America's oldest human rights group and the White House and accused the President of dividing the US by race. Bush has not spoken to the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People (NAACP) since the campaign in 2000, when the NAACP National Voter Fund ran an advertisement portraying the President as unsympathetic to the murder of a black Texan who was dragged behind a truck in 1998. The leaders of the NAACP called President Bush an "illegal President", compared his anti-abortion views to the Taliban, and called his trip to Africa a "photo opportunity". Senator Kerry took the stage to Philadelphia, to the soul anthem We are family. He said: "I will be a President who is truly uniter, not one who seeks to divide one nation by race or riches or by any other label". Ordinarily black voters support Democratic candidates for their liberal views and this year they are determined not to see Bush re-elected.
Arab-Americans' vote: Concern about civil liberties and the war in Iraq have pushed Bush's already low support among Arab-American voters. In a poll of July 15, commissioned by the Arab-American Institute, only 24 per cent of Arab-American voters in the key states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, said that they would vote for the President, a dip from 30 per cent in April, while 51 per cent supported the Democratic nominee, Senator Kerry. President Bush narrowly won the Arab-American votes in 2000 but 69 per cent in the latest poll said the President did not deserve to be re-elected.
Almost all Muslim voters have alleged discrimination after the September 11 attacks and many , especially women, faced harassment in public places. Some say that they are "suspects" in the eyes of conservative white Americans. They are most likely to vote for Senator Kerry.
How President is elected
In America, it is important to remember that the President is not chosen by a nation-wide popular vote. The Electoral College votes for the President. The total number of electors in the Electoral College is 538 and a winning candidate must get the magic number 270. Elec- toral College votes are awarded on the basis of the popular vote in each state. The number of electors in the Electoral College depends on the size of the population of each state.
The states with bigger electoral votes are crucial to win and they are: California
(54 votes ), New York (33 votes), Texas (32 votes), Florida (25 votes), Pennsylvania (23 votes) and Ohio( 21 votes). The smaller populated states, such as Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Alaska , Columbia DC and Delaware carry only 3 electoral college vote each.
During the 2000 election, counting disputed votes in Florida was halted by the US Supreme Court and Florida's 25 electoral college votes went to President Bush who received total 271, one vote extra of the magic number 270. If the decision of the Court were otherwise Al Gore would have been in the White House. Conclusion
While the race appears to be close at this point of time, political veterans suggest that Senator Edwards' selection raised new concerns at the White House and at the Bush-Cheney re-election headquarters. It remains to be seen how Kerry-Edwards team overcomes the challenge and criticism of the Bush-Cheney team in the coming days.
Senator Kerry, has, meanwhile, agreed to face President Bush in three televised debates ahead of the November 2 election, one at the end of September and two in October. The outcomes of the debates are crucial in winning the minds of voters. It will be interesting to watch the performance of President Bush and Senator Kerry during the debates. Furthermore, the debate between Vice-President Dick Cheney and the Democratic running mate Senator John Edwards on 5th October may be the catalyst in winning the race.
Both the teams are millionaires and some say it is a race between two sets of millionaires ( one set inherited millions and the other earned millions by hard work). . Whoever wins, one thing is sure that the election campaign until 2nd November is likely to be aggressive, exciting and competitive.
Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.