& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

Soaring oil prices threaten to derail Asian economic growth

AFP, Singapore
Asia's economies have been able to withstand this year's surge in oil prices but the relentless climb is starting to take its toll and high growth rates are now in jeopardy, analysts said.
Crude futures prices reached historic highs at nearly 45 dollars a barrel last week, causing a slump in regional stock markets and prompting economists to draw up scenarios based on prices breaching 50 dollars a barrel.
"If energy prices come back down to what we think supply and demand should have them right now, probably around 30 dollars a barrel, it's not a big deal," David Wyss, chief global economist at US credit rating firm Standard
and Poor's, told reporters in Singapore on Friday.
"If they stay where they are now, it's a minor problem. But if they go upto 70-80 dollars a barrel then you have got some real problems in Asia and everywhere else too."
Joseph Tan, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, said the "big question" was how long oil prices would stay between 42-50 dollars a barrel.
If prices stayed between these levels for most of the year, then this would impact on Asian growth, Tan said, adding however he thinks prices will ease in the next few months.
He also pointed out any impact "will not be homogeneous given that some
countries are more dependent on oil than others," with South Korea, India and Thailand among the most vulnerable.
Ifzal Ali, chief economist of the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), said the bank's economists recently went back to the drawing board to plot a scenario where prices reach 50 dollars a barrel.
A bank study in June on the impact of high oil prices on Asia had assumed levels of up to 40 dollars a barrel.
High oil prices are now a "serious threat not only to Asia but globally as well," Ali told AFP by telephone on Friday.
"The thing is if this increase in oil prices is combined with an increase in interest rates, that would be even more damaging," he said, referring to moves by the US Federal Reserve to raise key interest rates.
Oil prices at 50 dollars a barrel could shave off 1.1 percentage points from Asia's projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2005, compared with 0.8 percent if prices remained at 40 dollars a barrel, Ali said.
China's GDP would be trimmed by 1.1 percentage points and India's 1.2 percentage points, compared with 0.8 percent for both countries if prices were at 40 dollars a barrel.
At 50 dollars a barrel, Asia's trade balance by end 2005 would deteriorate 0.9 percentage points and inflation would rise by 1.9 percentage points.