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Currents and Crosscurrents

US Democratic Convention and election trail

It is an axiomatic truth that no one can predict with a degree of certainty the outcome of an election in a close contest. As of now, the Democratic candidate's chances of success appear brighter, as the ghost of war in Iraq and its aftermath haunts President Bush. But if Bill Clinton could overcome the Monica scandal and get re-elected, would the supporters of George W Bush Jr. give up hope for their leader to return to the White House for another term?

M. M. Rezaul Karim
THE 4-day democratic Convention ended in Boston on 29 July with the fanfare and hullabaloo that are generally associated with the Conventions of the two major political parties of the USA. Senator John Kerry's nomination was confirmed and his supporters vied with one another in showering praise on the Democratic hopeful through their speeches and cheers. The Convention was extraordinary for more than one reason, but was viewed by observers in their own perspectives.
One unique characteristic of the Convention was the preponderance of the non-domestic issues that drew focus at the Convention. This happened after many years since the United States had been involved in war, the last being in Vietnam. War in Iraq and all that related to it, evidently was the much talked about issue. John Kerry's scathing criticism of President Bush's declaration and handling of the war in Iraq without himself explicitly stating his opposition to invade Iraq was a clear manifestation of the
Democratic candidate's art of shifting stand under changed circumstances. It may be recalled that Senator John Kerry was among those US law-givers, who had authorised the President to go to war in Iraq, if it was deemed appropriate. Therefore, any criticism of President's decision to wage war against Iraq, one may argue, had been collectively supported by Senator Kerry. However, later, the opinion of the Congressional Committee on Intelligence to the effect that had they known the full intelligence reports
earlier many would not have voted in favour of the war. This helped substantiate Kerry's subsequent stand against the war.
Kerry's contention was that the President had not exercised his authority given by the Congress judiciously. He declared, had he been the President he would have brought back his allies and NATO and worked together, sharing cost and risk of the war with them. He condemned the Bush Administration for not having a Peace Plan after the war and to meet the demand for the American troops to be brought back home. He gave the
impression in favour of his respect for and decision of the international community on issues vital to the maintenance of law and order in the world. This was evident when he said that a strong America should not only be feared but respected abroad. He drew tumultuous applause when he said that America should go to war not because she wanted to go to war but because she had to go to war, once all other avenues of a pacific settlement are exhausted. He subtly called the President untruthful and misleading
when he urged the people to put someone in the White House who is trusted and credible.
On the domestic front, as expected, he directed his efforts to demonstrate himself as the President of the vast middle and working class of the American populace. He pledged greater employment, social insurance against privatisation, medicare for the poor, elderly and the veterans, easy access to education, and, above all, taxes for the rich for the benefit of the poor. It was interesting to note that the two former Democratic Presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, were
both present and spoke to bolster support for their candidate. Carter ruefully commented that he was happy to learn to be a beneficiary, one percent of the people, under Bush's tax cut plan, but abhorred the idea after discovering that the benefit would accrue out of the sacrifice of the remaining 99 percent of the population. Bill Clinton, who had beaten the President's father George Bush Sr. in Presidential re-election, sought to glorify the image of the Democratic Party and its nominee.
Almost all the speakers at the Convention lauded Kerry's performance in the war in Vietnam which was a big contrast to Bush Jr.'s record. Viewers witnessed a parade of the war veterans, who had served with Kerry on the same boat in Vietnam. Bush once expressed the hope that having played the role of a War President he would now strive to serve as a Peace President. But speakers at the Democratic rally sought to dismiss that hope by glorifying Kerry's experience and heroism in the Vietnam war and by alleging Bush's total absence of a Peace Plan following the military
victory in Iraq. John Kerry's long and comprehensive address, strangely enough, hardly found a place to woe the multitude of America's vast minorities -- the African Americans, the Hispanics and the Asians. The Democrats always thrived on the support of this backward but important section of the American people. This was, however, well compensated by the previous speaker, his running mate John Edwards, who
highlighted the issue as the "great America" being a large melting pot of
all races, colours and background, and made it a core point in his speech to promote their interests.
Another issue on which the Democratic candidate somewhat glossed over was the current situation in the Middle East. While he reiterated his commitment to provide security and protection of Israel, any specific plan to advance the cause of peace in the troubled region, not to speak of the need for a fair deal to the Palestinians, was conspicuous by its absence. It is, nevertheless, hard to blame the Democratic candidate in the Presidential election for this, as he
cannot lose sight of the interests of the large Jewish community, which wields inimitable influence and
exercise enormous power in the
political, financial, business, industrial and other sectors of America.
How did the Democratic Convention fare in terms of the prospect of victory of the Democratic candidate in the coming election? It did fare well and, no doubt, improved the image of the Democratic candidate, thereby enhancing his prospect in the election. The popular rating of John Kerry went up higher than President Bush, though the various Commissions and Committees set up on the events of 9/11, intelligence and other issues contributed to it. Similarly, the Republican Convention is also expected to sway some degree of popular support for the incumbent President.
The contest between the two candidates in the US election, therefore, will be a keen one and whoever wins will do so by a small margin. It is an axiomatic truth that no one can predict with a degree of certainty the outcome of an election in a close contest. As of now, the Democratic candidate's chances of success appear brighter, as the ghost of war in
Iraq and its aftermath haunts President Bush. But if Bill Clinton could overcome the Monica scandal and get re-elected, would the supporters of George W Bush Jr. give up hope for their leader to return to the White House for another term?
M.M.Rezaul Karim, a former Ambassador, is a member of BNP's Advisory Council.