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Myanmar's Geo-political importance

BRIG GEN JAHANGIR KABIR ndc, psc (Retd)
LiKE Pakistan on the northwestern fringe of the peninsular south Asia, Myanmar constitutes a strategic hub linking East and West Asia, along the shipping lifeline of the Malacca strait. she forms the underbelly of the landlocked Yunnan Province of China, which is politically restive, and economically less developed. she has a wild border with the fiercely centrifugal indian provinces of Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. After China, she has the longest border with the west friendly Thailand, extending close to the crammed Malacca strait. Her boundary with Laos, along the salween River, connects to the notorious 'Golden Triangle'. On the western backyard, 176 miles of Bangladesh-Myanmar boundary is fully demarcated starting from Mizoram (india) Bangladesh Myanmar triangle, following the watersheds on the green hills, gorges and river courses, all the way up to the mouth of river Naaf and beyond, into the Bay. History has hinged Bangladesh with the spirals of south Asian subcontinent. East looking Myanmar is the western frontier of south East Asia and a member of AsEAN. While the people of Myanmar identify with the Mongoloids, we are a racial admixture. Myanmar's resources, long borders with two Asian giants and proximity to the Malacca strait, make her strategically comparable to Pakistan.
With 678,000 square kilometers of mostly hilly terrain, she is more than four times the size of Bangladesh with a population of 46 million. Bamman the plains people, inhabit the irawaddy plateau, and seven nationalities, namely Rakhine (Arakanese), Chin, Kachin, shan, Mon, Karen and Kyat have their own states, bordering five countries. Besides, Myanmar has a colorful demographic mosaic of hundreds of sub-nationalities and tribal cultures, spread over the hilly terrain. she has a long coastal area of over 1500 kilometers, starting from the mouth of river Naaf to Victoria Point on the Gulf of Andaman bordering Thailand. Myanmar has developed in recent years but still lacks the maritime resources for effective control of her territorial waters. Over four hundred thousand strong military was purely a counter insurgency force, but since the early 90s she has been adding conventional teeth with generous assistance from China.
After the crackdown on the demo-
cratic forces in 1988 and economic sanctions, China conspicuously moved in to rescue the present military regime. With the enhanced economic, political, diplomatic and military support, in many ways the present military regime owes its survival to China. Myanmar has more than a billion-dollar yearly trade with China, besides huge, unrecorded border trade. China has come in a big way in the development of Myanmar's infrastructure and plans to link up the
existing Yunnan-Mandalay highway with the proposed Asian highway and railway in Myanmar, to open up the vast western China. sandwiched between the Gobi desert and the mighty Himalayas, road and rail link through Myanmar into the Bay of Bengal will cut down thousands of expensive miles
from interior China and strategic choke points of the Malacca strait. Myanmar-China friendship today has reached a strategic level posing a serious concern to the West and india alike. There are strong rumours that China is acquiring naval and air base facilities in Rumree and Coco islands on the Arakan coast. China will need permanent base facilities if she ever wants to emerge in the indian Ocean waters as a power broker. China provides a common cause for
strategic alliance of india with UsA. Despite great advances in the economic field, China is still a quarter century and thousands of miles away from projecting naval power in the indian Ocean area. But she is coming for sure.
india insists on characterising the area between east of Africa and west of
Australia as the lake of littoral countries, thereby denying legitimacy of China on the vast indian Ocean as East Asian power and UsA as outsider.
No wonder, emerging india has a shopping list for more aircraft carriers, jump jets and nuclear submarines. Any move by Myanmar to offer base facilities to China in the Bay of Bengal will invite hostility of both the west and india. UsA is constrained between economic sanction, UN resolution in favor of democracy with little effect and fear of another Vietnam in case of direct intervention. But on the waves, she is the ruler.
The possibility of Myanmar being within the zone of influence of expanding China will not be acceptable to the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal. There appears to be a storm brewing in the Bay. While AsEAN is working as a moderator, Aung sun su Kyi is the only viable hope for democracy and west friendly Myanmar.
india's Myanmar policy had been guided by three factors. (A) sensitive border areas and trans-frontier activities of insurgent armies. (B) support to the democratic forces under Noble Laureate Aung sun su Kyi. (C) Consolidation and expansion of China-Myanmar friendship at strategic level. By 1992 india had realized that her unqualified support to the democratic forces pushed Myanmar too far towards China and has been trying ever since to cajole her way with the present military regime. india has built a highway between imphal (Manipur) and Myanmar through shagain Division via the border town of Thamu and is trying to push both the Asian highway and railway through that corridor, bypassing Bangladesh. if China ever gets trade-transit facility through the Arakan coast, india will surely ask for the same for her eastern states. Torn between democratic values and geo-strategy, india suffers from hesitation and inconsistent foreign policy maneuvers in Myanmar.
Bangla-Myanmar relationship resembles that of two passengers travelling in a Myanmarese pedicab known as 'Chaya'. While the couple moves in the same direction, they sit back to back, only occasionally exchanging views in a barely audible voice. Both our countries are poor and unfortunate members of the 'least developed countries'. We live in the same tropical climate with partially shared history and culture. Yet we have been offering very little to one another
and many a times give the look of strangers. in many ways river Naaf, that defines much of the common boundary, is an ocean across.
Fear of undesirable immigrants is one of the major apprehensions that inhibit Myanmar's attitude towards densely populated Bangladesh. Historically independent nature of the Rakhines and concentration of the people of indian origin, commonly known as Rohingyas, on Bangladesh-Myanmar border, are the twin headaches of Myanmar since independence. Rohingya is their problem as they are the citizens of Myanmar by birth. in a situation of mass exodus, poor Bangladesh bears much of the brunt at tremendous social and economic costs, purely on humanitarian ground. Twice in the past we have witnessed mass exodus and consequent retardation of friendly relationship.
Tension on the border must not take our initiatives elsewhere hostage. A thriving border trade is already on. As Myanmar is endowed with agricultural, forestry, fisheries surplus and mineral resources, Bangladesh has a long list of imports from her. Rice, fish, spices, timber, bamboo, limestone, cattle and many other products cross the border at a competitive price. Bangladesh sells fertilizer, medicine and biscuits in limited quantity only, which cannot offset the trade imbalance.
History has taught Myanmar to move slowly and cautiously. Bangladesh is at their backyard. China, india and Thailand are important bordering countries for geopolitical, military and economic reasons. Besides, entry in the AsEAN, investment by the member countries, Taiwan, China, Korea and Japan has allured Myanmar to look east. Bangladesh, a sleeping neighbor on the salween River, is occasionally irritated by the Rohingya refugees.
Legacies of history and culture and west-friendly diplomacy add suspicion to call for cooperation by Bangladesh with lukewarm response. it is time for Bangladesh to work on a proactive diplomacy with AsEAN and show interest for its membership. That may give Bangladesh more agreeable cloak and better credentials. Once AsEAN is identified, as a shared platform of mutual gain, trade and friendship will naturally trickle down. We can gradually draw sAARC and AsEAN together for a bridge over an immensely wide river Naaf.
The author is a writer on strategic issues.