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PANORAMA

Indo-Bangladesh relations: Qualitative change in the offing?

Once the relationship becomes free from suspicion and mistrust and solid foundation is laid between the two and India and Bangladesh develop stakes in each other security then it would be easier for both countries to tackle the other sensitive issues.

Dilara Choudhury
INDO-centric South Asian countries are feeling elated by the announcements and statements of Indian leadership of newly elected Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, which categorically stated that India would work to strengthen the regional harmony through mutually beneficial bilateral ties with its neighbors and through SAARC. Hopes, as such, have been raised in Dhaka, especially in the context of Common
Minimum Program's (CMP) announcement that all outstanding issues with Bangladesh would be resolved, for a qualitative change in Indo-Bangladesh relations. In this context, it is to be noted that Dhaka has always been interested in improving relations with its giant neighbor. This time also its eagerness has been demonstrated by the fact that Khaleda Zia was the first foreign head of government to congratulate Sonia Gandhi on her party's victory in the recent parliamentary elections and Manmohan Singh on his assumption of office. Subsequently, Dhaka sent its Foreign Minister to India as a special envoy of the PM on a goodwill tour. The FM met the top Indian leadership as well as the relevant ministers like his counterpart, the Home Minister, the Water Resources Minister and the Commerce Minister. According to press in Dhaka Bangladesh Foreign Minister has been warmly received by New Delhi and both sides discussed a number of irritants in a spirit of "mutual understanding," and agreed to not let bilateral ties
be a prisoner of the past.
Speaking of the past, it is unfortunate that the ties between Dhaka and New Delhi have remained mired in mutual mistrust and suspicion that gave rise to a host of unsolved issues despite the great expectations for a cordial and friendly Indo-Bangladesh relations when Bangladesh became independent nation in 1971. Dhaka watched with great anxiety that while the old irritants like delineation of maritime boundary, demarcation of land border, conflictive claims on Taipatty, yawning trade gap, water sharing problems remained unsolved a host of new irritants like border clashes, push-
in problem, alleged presence of Indian insurgents from Indian Northeast on Bangladeshi soil and alleged Pakistani ISI activities within Bangladesh against India, Indian demand for transshipment and transit through Bangladesh and Indian proposal of an internal river-linking project were added and thereby making the list longer. And during the last six years i.e. during BJP-led NDA's rule the relations between the two were often marred with bitter words and indifference towards each other's security concerns. Now with the change of government in India there are indications that the bilateral relations indeed may take an upswing turn. However, some of the issues at stake are complex in nature and will require firm political commitment of both governments.
Speaking of the complexities of the issues a number of irritants come to mind. First, alleged influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India. It has remained a dangerously potential threat of conflicts between the two countries ever since New Delhi raised it. It is to be noted that the issue did not surface during BJP-led NDA's rule. Even prior to NDA coming to power the then Congress government and its immediate successors New Delhi alleged that there was a steady flow of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into Indian states adjacent to Bangladesh. In 1998, the government of West Bengal sent a report to Centre pertaining the presence of ten lac Bangladeshis living on its soil. The then government nilly willy declared that a policy of 'push back' of the so-called illegal Bangladeshi immigrants would be undertaken in order to deal with the prickly issue. This state of affairs took a downward trend with BJP giving exceptional prominence of the issue in its election manifesto. BJP quoted an absurd figure of one crore and promised to send them back to Bangladesh in due time i.e. declared its intention to adopt the previous policy of Congress government to 'push back' these alleged illegal Bangladeshis across Bangladesh's border. Subsequently, after coming to power BJP did not leave the matter at rhetorical level but rather put it in action by trying to 'push-in' these alleged Bangladeshi immigrants. The 'push-in' policy adopted by BJP came to a peak in Jan-Feb. 03 when BFS attempted to push in Bengali speaking people into Bangladesh through Kushtia, Khulna, Dinajpur and Rangpur frontiers of the country. It was reported that hundreds of Bengali speaking people were gathered at the zero point and BFS tried to push them in into Bangladesh but their attempts were foiled through the efforts of BDR. Bangladesh stated that at the center of the mayhem was Bengali speaking
Muslim population of India who were mostly from Uttar 24 Parogana, Nadia, Mushirdabad and Coochbihar. The incidents created a lot of acrimony between the two countries. In this context the statement of the present Home Minister is welcomed who indicated that the issue of illegal immigrants should be dealt with a 'human face.' However, that means that the present government does change the content of the issue but rather a proposed change in handling the problem. In essence, thus, the resolution of this tricky problem may not be any easier for UPA government than the BJP-led government when the crux of the problem has been that while India consistently alleges that there are one crore illegal Bangladeshi immigrants living in India while Dhaka equally denying their existence in that country. However, a window of opportunity has been opened through which both countries may engage themselves into constructive dialogue.
Second complex issue that bedeviled Indo-Bangladesh bilateral relations has been the unilateral decision of then BJP-led government of adopting the River Linking Project which if implemented would divert waters from the Ganges and Brahmaputra to West and South India to increase water flow of rivers within those region during the lean period. Needless to say Bangladesh being the lower riparian country would be effected most although it would harm i.e. to a lesser extent the less developed Eastern state of Assam and part of West Bengal and Bihar of India. Bangladesh have been greatly worried about the implications of the Project. The Interlinking of 30 rivers made Bangladesh made jittery to an extent that the last meeting of the Joint River Commission was almost deadlocked over it. Again, the indications from present UPA government are that Indian government may evaluate the controversial river linking projects as well as National Water Resource Policy of 2002 and that while dealing with them it would attempt to remain sensitive to neighbor's concerns have been like music to Dhaka's ears. Bangladesh has welcomed Indian government's rethinking of the river linking projects and that it would remain sensitive to neighbor's concerns as well as international ramifications. Despite the high hopes it needs to be kept in mind that New Delhi has not outright rejected the idea and it would look into its national interest while dealing with the issue. The issue, thus, is complex and would require the concerted effort of both governments.
Third is the issue of Indian allegation of the presence of insurgents from Indian Northeast on Dhaka's soil, presence of other terrorists and alleged ISI activities
within Bangladesh against India. New Delhi has consistently alleged that insurgents from Northeast cross over into Bangladesh territory on regular basis and there are as many as 119 insurgent camps within Bangladesh. New Delhi is also worried about the flow of illegal arms through Bangladesh territory most which, it feels, end up in the troubled Northeast states of India. It has also alleged that recently i.e. in post 9/11 period Bangladesh has become a sanctuary for the Al Qaeda and Talibans as evidenced by former Foreign Minister Yaswant Singha's statement in the Parliament in November 2002 that some Al-Qaeda elements have taken shelter in Dhaka. All these allegations are denied by Dhaka. Dhaka's denial of all these issues is viewed by New Delhi as former's indifference to latter's security concerns and expects Dhaka to rethink its denial mode. The task, thus, is complex as, Dhaka, on the other hand, feels that New Delhi is indifferent to its
needs and security concerns, which emanate mostly out of New Delhi's policies ofnot resolving the outstanding irritants between the two to keep Dhaka vulnerable. The formidable challenge is to create an environment in which both countries can appreciate each other's concerns.
From the discussion above it is discerned that there are complex issues involved in Indo-Bangladesh bilateral ties. However, no issue is difficult if the environment is right i.e. there exists no mutual suspicion and mistrust. Both countries, as such, especially India needs to work towards that goal by creating such conducive environment. India being bigger and powerful would have to walk an extra-mile and by drawing corollaries from the recent India-Pakistan peace dialogue, New Delhi may address the less contentious issues like delineation of maritime boundary, resolution of Taipatty, demarcation of land border by implementing Mujib-Indira Land Border Treaty of 1974, and take steps to improve trade relations by allowing more access of Bangladeshi goods into Indian market so that Dhaka is rid of its insecurity. In this regard, New Delhi should also stop putting pressure on Dhaka for transshipment and transit through its territory. Once the relationship becomes free from suspicion and
mistrust and solid foundation is laid between the two and India and Bangladesh develop stakes in each other security then it would be easier for both countries to tackle the other sensitive issues.
It is evident from what transpired recently during the contacts between the two governments that the new Indian government seems serious in mending fences with Bangladesh, which Dhaka appreciates greatly and is responding accordingly. There seems to be a genuine desire from both sides to begin anew. Actually, excepting the euphoric period of 1971-72 there has been never so much hope in Dhaka for improved relations with India while India showing so much interest in building mutually beneficial relations. One can, thus, expect that a conducive environment for settling the outstanding issues between the two is not farfetched Hopefully, there is enough political will and commitments from both, especially from New Delhi. The new government oflndia has indicated desire for a qualitative change in Indo-Bangladesh relations through its recent statements and announcements. And Dhaka in similar manner is demonstrating its determination to seize the opportunity. Let us hope that the words are matched with actions.
Dilara Choudury is Professor of Government and Politics, JahangirnagarUniversity.