THE people of West Bengal have always been very politically conscious. That is what indeed the leaders of the political parties in this part of the country say. The Left Front alliance has always been quick to point out that because of the conscious voters 'family rule' does not get a priority in the state. And it has helped them to remain in power for the last 27 years. However, inspite of that they have not been really able to match their Assembly election performance with the Lok Sabha polls. The opposition in the form of the Trinamool Congress, the Congress and the BJP won 13 seats in the last Lok Sabha. This time however, the figure will decrease. The CPIM led Left Front may well win around 32 out of the 42 seats in contention. In 1999, they had won 29 constituencies.
The main reason for that will be Mamata Bannerjee's whimsical policy. The Trinamool Congress chairperson in short has antagonised the voters to such an extent that very few will be turning up for her. Her decision to nominate Subrata Mukherjee in place of Sudip Bandopadhaya has given CPIM a chance to win a constituency in Kolkata proper. The three Kolkata constituencies has always been the stronghold of the Trinamool for the last seven years. The CPIM party secretary Anil Biswas has gone to the extent of saying, 'There is a very good possibility of winning two out of the three Kolkata constituencies.'
In Kolkata, in the battle of heavyweights, the north-east and the north-west constituencies have become the cynosure of all eyes. In the north-east, it is the sitting candidate Ajit Panja against CPIM's Mohammed Selim and actress Moushumi Chatterjee of the Congress. Panja has always been a favourite of the north-east constituency winning six out of seven times. But his decision to build a rebel Trinamool Congress party and thus earning the wrath of Mamata Bannerjee has weakened his base. On the other hand, Selim, the youth affairs minister in the West Bengal Assembly has worked tirelessly for the last five years. In the past, a large section of the Congress voters had voted for Panja as they felt he was their quintessential candidate. Not any more now perhaps. Panja himself is worried, but as a veteran does not demonstrate it. The problem, however, is that the Kolkata northeast constituency has 32 percent Muslim voters. And Selim is sure to exploit that.
The Kolkata north-west has always been an anti-CPIM bastion. In fact at times, the CPIM never contested on this seat leaving it either to Samata Party or Janata Dal. However, this time, the ongoing battle between Sudip Bandopadhaya and Subrata Mukherjee has made the CPIM very optimistic. Bandopadhaya was once the most trusted aide of Mamata. However, his close proximity to Deputy Prime Minister Lal KrishnaAdvani, angered Mamata.
The situation in the past had been that the anti-CPIM votes always got divided between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress candidates. However, this time as far as the Kolkata North-West is concerned, there will even be a division of the Trinamool Congress votes. Which has opened up the door of opportunity for the CPIM.
The Trinamool Congress, however, is facing another grave disadvantage. There are constituencies in West Bengal where the CPIM and the Congress are jointly working to defeat them. As for example, the Maida, Raigunj, Jangipur and
the Baharampur constituency. In these places, the CPIM does not have any chance of winning. So their workers are quietly working on the sly with their Congress counterparts. The Congress won three Lok Sabha seats in the last election. This time they are confident of winning four to five seats. Former Congress unit president in West Bengal Soumen Mitra pointed out, 'Our fight is against the communal forces. The Trinamool is an ally of the forces that are destroying the country...'
As far as the districts of Midnapore, Burdwan, Purulia and Hooghly are concerned, the CPIM and its other allies hold the upper hand. Neither the Trinamool Congress or the Congress or the BJP can usurp their position. The organisational strength of the CPIM is so much in these areas that the opposition cannot even place polling agents in all the booths. In recent times, the BJP have been trying to build up a base in the Purulia district. However, it will not affect the results in any way in that particular district. If the CPIM is worried about one single factor it is the presence of the MCC and PWG cadres in the Purulia, Bankura, Midnapore and the Jhargram districts. The Naxalites may not also be able to affect the fate of the CPIM candidates. However, they will certainly create enough disturbance to keep away the entire population of quite a few villages from voting.
The big fights
Mamata Bannerjee (TMC) vs Rabin Deb (CPIM) vs Nafisa Ali (Cong): Last time the margin of victory for Mamata Bannerjee was more than two lakhs. This time, however, that margin will certainly come down. Rabin Deb is a very tough candidate and has the basic ground level network to reach the voters. But then he will not be able to close the gap that Mamata has build up over the CPIM in the last decade. Nafisa Ali at the best can hope to finish a poor third.
Ajit Panja (TMC) vs Mohammed Selim (CPIM) vs Moushumi Chatterjee (Congress: Ajit Panja's margin of victory in the last Lok Sabha polls was a little over 40,000. The worrying factor for him is that Selim is a minister. Within his constituency is the Assembly constituency of Beliaghata, the home of the IT minister Manab Mukherjee. So Panja, now will have to fight the might of two ministers who will control a large section of the administration. As far as Moushumi Chatterjee is concerned, she will get quite a few votes simply because, there is a large Congress base in Kolkata north-east. Panja's return to the Mamata Bannerjee lobby has also not been very well accepted by the voters. But then he is the master of the game.
Dum Dum constituency: Tapan Sikdar (BJP) vs Amitabha Nundy (CPIM): The name of the Congress candidate has intentionally been omitted as this is going to be a straight fight between the BJP and the CPIM. The seat has assumed tremendous importance simply because Jyoti Basu wants it to come back to the CPIM. In the 1998 and 1999 elections, Sikdar won. Prior to that the CPIM had always won in this constituency. The CPIM had lost the seat simply because of the intra-party rivalry Nundy's greatest enemy has been the state transport minister Subhas Chakrabarty. This time after the CPIM candidate list was announced Basu mediated between Nundy and Chakrabarty and forced them to sign an 'uneasy truce'.