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Vajpayee for facade, Advani for PM?

BJP's great con-trick

PRAFUL BIDWAI writes from New Delhi
***Mr Advani's weight in the BJP has greatly risen, like his profile in government. In June 2002, he was installed as Deputy Prime Minister--an office without Constitutional sanction. He was given new responsibilities like talking to the All-Party Hurriyat Conference...Mr Advani has increasingly sought parity with Mr Vajpayee. He wanted to use official aircraft during the election campaign--a privilege reserved for the PM. The attempt failed, but the message got across that he's not too far from the top job... Mr Advani also entertains delusions of grandeur. He says he'd like himself and Mr Vajpayee to be remembered as India's "new architects and visionaries"!***
THE one thing the BJP cannot be accused of is lack of energy. It has been in campaign mode for almost three months. It concocted, and dressed up, its "achievements" through a Rs. 450-crore blitz at public expense. It has promoted "feel-good" through Rs. 20,000-crore tax-breaks for the rich and disinvestment from bluest-of-blue-chips ONGC.
It has euphorically inducted film stars and other glamour-figures (although its only substantial catch is singer-composer Bhupen Hazarika).
After such saturation-level campaigning, why should Mr L.K. Advani launch his 33-day-long Bharat Uday rath-yatra?
Clearly, Mr Advani is relaunching himself!
The yatra will help him mobilise cadres to help the BJP in some 100 "weak" constituencies. Mr Advani will stress its "conceptual and emotional link" with the original yatra of 1990 and remind the sangh
parivar that it's his Ayodhya campaign which built up the BJP's strength from a pathetic two seats to 100-plus. The first yatra was his career's highest point.
This yatra too will project Mr Advani as a major campaigner, independent of Mr Vajpayee. The all-important message? If the NDA wins, Mr Advani will succeed Mr Vajpayee--if not immediately, then soon.
The yatra is a calculated depar
ture from the BJP's exclusively Vajpayee-centric campaign. It'll use Mr Vajpayee's (deceptive) image as a "liberal", "moderate", "soft" leader to bolster Mr Advani. The BJP will seek votes for Mr Vajpayee--to install Mr Advani in power!
This is a big confidence trick. Very few people approve of Mr Advani as PM. According to an India Today poll (Feb 9), his rating is a pitiable, unelectable 2 percent, less than even Mr Mulayam Singh's 3 percent, and incomparable to Ms Sonia Gandhi (23) and Mr Vajpayee (47).
Mr Vajpayee is old and in poor heath. Even if re-elected, he's unlikely to complete his tenure. The BJP wants to pre-empt any successor other than the person the RSS trusts best. Mr Advani (78) is in a hurry and under pressure from his supporters.
The BJP is making the succession appear smooth and irreversible. Should it win 200-plus seats (1999 tally, 182), it might even make Mr Advani the PM, riding roughshod over its NDA allies.
Mr Advani faces a tough choice in the yatra. If he whips up hysteria and instigates violence--as in 1990, causing 300 riots--, he'll antagonise middle-class voters with no stomach for bloodshed. He'll also invite the Election Commission's intervention.
If he avoids militant rhetoric, and the yatra only projects Mr Vajpayee's "capable leadership", it could "turn out to be a non-event"--according to a BJP leader.
The rath carries Hindu-religious motifs. When it was despatched for Kanyakumari amidst chants of "Jai Sri Ram", Mr Dilip Singh Judeo, of cash-on-camera fame, sacrificed a
goat to bring good luck to Mr Advani!
The yatra won't greatly affect the BJP's election prospects. It will increase its dependence on RSS cadres for voter mobilisation.
The yatra signifies changed power-equations. The BJP didn't even bother to tell its allies about it. This shows how domineering it has become and how marginal them. The plan was worked out by Mr Pramod Mahajan and kept
secret even from second-rung BJP leaders.
Mr Advani's weight in the BJP has greatly risen, like his profile in government. In June 2002, he was installed as Deputy Prime Minis-ter--an office without Constitutional sanction. He was given new responsibilities like talking to the All-Party Hurriyat Conference.
Mr Advani has increasingly sought parity with Mr Vajpayee. He wanted to use official aircraft during the election campaign--a privilege reserved for the PM. The attempt failed, but the message got across that he's not too far from the
top job.
Mr Advani also entertains delusions of grandeur. He says he'd like himself and Mr Vajpayee to be remembered as India's "new architects and visionaries"!
Within the party, Mr Advani's supremacy is unchallenged since mid-2002, when Mr M Venkaiah Naidu became president. Mr Vajpayee isn't always comfortable with this. He sometimes asserts his self-interest--as in re-inducting Mr
Kalyan Singh. (In 1999, Mr Singh damaged his Lucknow campaign and caused a 93,000-vote fall in his margin).
Last June, Mr Naidu equated Mr Advani with Mr Vajpayee through his vikas-purush and loh-purush formulation. That provoked a sharp rebuke from Mr Vajpayee. Mr Naidu abjectly apologised.
However, now, the BJP all but accepts the "two mascots".
The BJP/NDA won't have an easy election win--despite their opponents' failings. The BJP enjoyed an exceptional 54 percent success-rate in 1999, twice higher
than the national average. Assuming the rate holds--despite the allies' depleted number and strength--, the party won't even win 190 seats (if it contests 350). For a convincing 220-230 seats, the BJP would have to antagonise allies and dismantle the NDA!
The NDA seems to have peaked in numerous states. It won all the seats in Haryana, Himachal, Delhi and Goa, 41 out of the 54 seats in Bihar, 19 of 21 in Orissa, 36 of 42 in Andhra, 26 of 39 in Tamil Nadu, 20 of 26 in Gujarat, 16 of 25 in Rajasthan, 28 of 48 in Maharashtra…
It'd be a miracle if the NDA doesn't lose many of these. The odds are especially stacked against it in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Bihar and Andhra.
Potentially, the BJP can gain only in Uttar Pradesh and perhaps Assam and Punjab. Even Mr Mahajan admits that "it will be difficult" for it to reach the 200-seat mark nationally without an extra 20-25 seats in UP.
In UP's three- or four-way contest, the BJP might come third--as happened in the 2002 Assembly elections. Unless there's a "wave", it won't exceed its earlier tally (25).
The BJP's opponents must fight it resolutely--through an alternative vision/programme and skilful alliance-building. They have a historic opportunity--to combat the menace of Hindutva and elitist neoliberalism.
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.