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BJP lacks base in South

The BJP has very little following in all the four southern states Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. It had a substantial support in Karnataka. But that was about a decade ago when it secured in a general election around 28 per cent of votes... The AIADMK's understanding with the BJP in Tamil Nadu was a foregone conclusion after the DMK's alliance with the Congress... Andhra Pradesh still basks in the feel-good factor of its chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's solid work.

Kuldip Nayar writes from New Delhi
THE Congress has a dependable base in southern India. This is what I gather after visiting some of its parts. Even when Mrs Indira Gandhi was routed in the North after the emergency (1975-77), the party retained its supremacy in the South.
In fact, Indira Gandhi's comeback trail began from the South. She fought from the Chikmanglur Lok Sabha constituency in Karnataka in 1979 and defeated Virendra Patil, former chief minister and the ruling Janata Party nominee. Electoral baptism of her daughter-in-law Sonia Gandhi also took place in Karnataka from the Bellery constituency in 1999. The BJP put up their big gun, Sushma Swaraj, to stall Sonia's formal entry into politics. Sonia won hands down.
The BJP has very little following in all the four southern states
Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. It had a substantial support in Karnataka. But that was about a decade ago when it secured in a general election around 28 per cent of votes.
The main reason for the BJP's drop in Karnataka has been the lack of leadership. Even now former Union Minister N. Ananth Kumar, inducted as the BJP state unit president, does not make waves.
He is not powerful enough even to stop the infighting in the party, much less to retrieve the lost ground. There is also a question mark against his integrity. He is said to be involved in the HUDCO scam when he was the Union Minister for Housing. The Congress, which governs the state, finds the charge coming in handy.
Compared to Ananth Kumar, chief minister S.M. Krishna is an established leader with a long record of public service. There is not a speck of scandal on him. His
problem is that state Congress chief S Janardharn Poojary is all the time projecting himself. When Krishna was in two minds whether to go for the assembly and Lok Sabha elections at the same time, Poojary threatened to deny tickets to those who were opposed to the simultaneous polls.
S. Bangarappa, the ex-chief minister of Karnataka, wants to stage a comeback. He has been absolved of cases of corruption against him. He, like Poojary, claims a direct channel to Sonia Gandhi, not through Krishna. Bangarappa has declined the position of election campaign manager on the plea that Sonia should herself tell him to accept the post. The party would
have a problem if the wife of Ramakrishna Hegde, who died recently, were to be won over by the BJP. The Congress is also trying to woo her. She has the sympathy factor in her favour. Former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, heading the Janata Dal (Secular), is too arrogant to approach her or Hegde's supporters.
Even in Hegde's lifetime, Gowda considered himself a better leader with a larger base. He has a few pockets of influence but not enough to put up a fight against the Con-
gress which looks like improving its position both in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The Congress can be embarrassed if the BJP is able to rope in Virendra Patil's son who is a Lingayat. The Congress leaders and Gowda are Vokalingas. The two castes have decided the fate of Karnataka for many years. They can still do if they were to join hands. But at present they are divided and both the BJP and Congress are trying to woo them.
I was in Kerala when K Karunakaran, an octogenarian Congress leader, announced he would form a separate Indira Gandhi Congress Party. None took him seriously. All his anger was for obtaining a cabinet berth for his son,
K Muralidharan, also the state Congress chief. Now that he has become a minister Karunakaran has piped down. However, he hates chief minister A.K. Anthony so muchhe accuses him of projecting the Christian identity -- that Karunakaran may covertly support the Left Democratic Front. He has already appeared with the Communists on some platforms. The LDF too is depending on him to improve its present tally from 10 to 13 in a total of 20.
The Muslim League is firmly with
the United Democratic Front and feels happy that the Dravida Munentra Kazhagam (DMK) has given it a seat in Tamil Nadu. It looks almost certain that the Muslim League will win the two Kerala seats but whether it would do so in Tamil Nadu is anybody's guess.
I have a feeling that many Muslims in the South, particularly in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, may vote for the BJP because of the Atal Behari Vajpayee factor. His initiative on Pakistan and the follow-up at Islamabad have gone down well with them, although their dislike for the BJP has not lessened in any way.
The AIADMK's understanding with the BJP in Tamil Nadu was a
foregone conclusion after the DMK's alliance with the Congress. Strange, how the Congress and the BJP have switched sides. The BJP's proximity with the AIADMK is all the more surprising because it was instrumental in throwing out the Vajpayee government when it lost by one vote. That the two leaders have come together after a long estrangement underlines the fact that opportunism has vitiated the political atmosphere. The old Congress, the remnants of the Kamaraj or the Moopanar group,
does not have much of a following. Former finance minister P Chidambaram still ploughs a lonely furrow but he does not count for much. It will ultimately follow Sonia. She is, however, reportedly unhappy that the DMK has given some of the Congress seats to Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). Still Sonia was very keen to have DMK chief M Karunanidhi on her side because he was the only force which withstood the pro-emergency wave that swept the South in the 1977 election. Even otherwise Sonia never liked Jayalalitha for her proximity with Rajiv Gandhi. The AIADMK would have the incumbency factor going against it. The BJP, without any base of its own, will
suffer the most.
Andhra Pradesh still basks in the feel-good factor of its chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's solid work. He would have had a better showing if some of his projects had germinated early enough. But his main worry is not because of lack of visible achievements. It is the growing movement for a separate Telengana state which can cost him as many as 100 seats in the assembly, also going to the polls along with the Lok Sabha. That the People's War Group, a Naxalite movement, has joined hands with the opposition could work both ways. Its violence has alienated many voters. But its protection of poor farmers against rapacious landlords and moneylenders has deepened its support. The police excesses at certain places have specially helped it to expand. Still its pulling power in elections is limited.
What makes up for Naidu's deficiencies is the Congress infighting. There are too many leaders in the party trying to garner personal support at the expense of the party. Andhra Pradesh is one state where the Congress can have a good showing provided the party closes its ranks.
The limited support the BJP has in the state may give Naidu's Telugu Desam the necessary edge as it happened during the last assembly election. But the BJP wants seats in its own name and believes that Andhra Pradesh can give it a break in South. If Naidu does so, it will be at the expense of Telugu Desam.
Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.