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SAARC: Indo-Pak relations

THE HORIZON THIS WEEK People of goodwill the world over will wish well to India and Pakistan. Due to their unending dispute they have frittered away energies which could have been utilised for nation building activities.

ARSHAD-UZ ZAMAN
THE much maligned SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) appears to have come to life through the just concluded Summit in Islamabad, capital of Pakistan. It has brought together long time adversaries India and Pakistan.
Interestingly SAARC is not supposed to discuss bilateral political matters. And this precisely what SAARC did and that covered the whole gamut of Indo-Pak differences including the long festering question of Jammu and Kashmir. Prime Minister of India Atal Behari Vajpayee not only shook hands with President of Pakistan Gen. Parvez Musharraf, but held substantive and successful talks. The joint declaration makes it abundantly clear and they have decided to hold composite talks that would cover all issues including Kashmir.
They have rightly emphasised that it is a victory for India and Pakistan and hopefully the people of Kashmir. India has long insisted that Pakistan must not allow her territory to be used for cross border terrorism into Kashmir. Pakistan has agreed on this point.
For Pakistan the most important question was the revival of the dispute of Kashmir. The joint declaration makes it clear that in the composite talks Kashmir will figure. Gen. Parvez Musharraf has every reason to fill gratified as he made it clear eloquently in a press conference following the talks. He was effusive in his praise for Indian leadership and particularly Prime Minister Vajpayee. For Prime Minister Vajpayee it was an important concession since his country and Pakistan fought a war in the high Kargil mountains barely three years ago. Also Indian leadership has never felt comfortable negotiating with Generals. Premier Vajpayee felt that he was making steady headway with his Pakistani counterpart elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He was deeply shocked to see Sharif ousted from power by Gen. Musharraf, who staged a successful coup.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has stated that this would be his last try to find a solution to the disputes bedevilling relations between two nuclear neighbours for more than half a century. He has a relatively free hand within his own country. He is the elected Prime Minister and enjoys enormous prestige throughout India and is acknowledged abroad as a remarkable Prime Minister .The fringe parties may make some noises but that would not cause him undue anxiety. It would seem that he has accepted to deal with Gen. Musharraf -- although no real enthusiasm is visible from his side -- because the cross border terrorism was becoming intolerable for the people of Kashmir and causing deep unhappiness in India.
For Gen. Musharraf the situation seems dramatically different. He has mounted a non-stop campaign for a meeting with Premier Vajpayee. He has recently declared his readiness to shed his military uniform by the end of the year. He is a military dictator and has to show some positive result to his constituency -- the Armed Forces. What better prize than to offer them a settlement of the more than half a century old dispute of Kashmir? That his path is full of pitfalls is demonstrated by the fact that within one week in the recent past he was target of assasins. It is curious that the place chosen should be the clearly visible Rawalpindi-Islamabad highway and that at the same spot!
If past is any guide Gen. Musharraf will have to keep a watchful eye and on his own intelligence outfit ISI (Inter-services Intelligence). I recall that in 1964 following the death of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru Pakistani President Field Marshal Ayub Khan decided to extend the olive branch to India. He sent a warm message of condolence to the Indian leadership and lowered the Pakistani flag. I was Public Relations Officer of Field Marshal Ayub and watched events first hand. Ayub's initiative was nipped in the bud as ISI started infiltrating fighters through Azad Kashmir into Indian side of Kashmir. This led to the war of 1965 with consequences we all know. In the recent past Gen. Musharraf has administered a severe blow to the ISI when he took a 180º turn and joined hands with the US and drove out from Kabul the Taliban regime, creation of ISI. Taliban are still making noises.
How strong they are is anybody's guess. Anyhow they enjoy the support of Osama Bin Laden, who has declared war on the USA.
India-Pakistan covers the better part of SAARC. India has a border with virtually every member of SAARC. The 12th Summit was held more than one year late because of wranglings between India and Pakistan. It is when the two sides decided to meet that the SAARC Summit was held. Thus SAARC had become hostage to the Indo-Pak dispute. Yet the achievements of the Summit are not negligible. The seven nations have signed a document setting up SAFTA, a joint trading body, which has been discussed over the years without any result. Since SAARC was created to improve the living standard of the region where live the poorest of the humanity, the creation of SAFTA is no mean achievement.
India and Pakistan are due to start composite talks in right earnest in February. To some extent decks have been cleared since relations had been snapped following the misadventure of terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament some two years ago. Those relations including the bus link have been restored.
India had long argued that Indo-Pak relations were purely bilateral by nature and there was no room for third party mediation. Although the US in order to demonstrate that she has a finger in every pie, has declared that she played a role in bringing about a rapprochement between India and Pakistan, the truth is that the leaderships of the two countries have brought about the beginning of a dialogue of their own bats.
People of goodwill the world over will wish well to India and Pakistan. Due to their unending dispute they have frittered away energies which could have been utilised for nation building activities. In the recent past they have come perilously close to an all out war and when one considers that both possess nuclear weapons, the consequences are too horrible to contemplate. I for one as a citizen of the sub-continent conclude by saying Bon Voyage.
Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.