THE New Year is always a time out with the old and in with the new. New Year resolutions are one of the traditional ways to begin a New Year in personal lives. There are many psychologists who believe that the making of New Year resolutions is detrimental to one's health. The reasons they claim are that not only do resolutions largely encourage one to focus on the negative elements of one's life but also resolutions may induce feelings of low esteem and failure if one breaks them. One inevitably does break some of the New Year resolutions.

One is tempted to predict the likely events in national and international scene. Many believe that imagining the likely events in 2003 is like visiting a dental surgeon. It is going to happen whether one likes it or not in a dental surgery. So some say why does one waste time beforehand? Despite this it is an interesting guess to foresee, not to predict ( like weather forecast) some of the events that are likely to occur in the country and in the world.

National Sector

In Bangladesh the New Year will usher in the deployment of the Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) to maintain or restore law and order. It implies that gradually RDF will take over from armed personnel who have been called since mid October of 2002 to bring some kind of stability in day-to-day life and personal safety of citizens in the country. Almost every one sighed a relief on the outcome of the army-drive in the country.

However there has been some visible "collateral damage" in bringing army in assistance to civilian administration. Some arrested or detained died in custody of the authorities and it provoked a negative reaction in some quarters within the country and in Europe. The European Union asked the government to conduct an independent investigation into the matter and to

make the investigative report public. The Amnesty International also saw such deaths a violation of fundamental human rights, such as the right to life. Year 2003 may be able to evaluate the right or wrong of army drive in the country.

The main organisational body of the opposition Party Awami League that has been reportedly revitalised in December with induction of a mixture of old and new leaders will meet in the new year to launch its policies and strategies to win back power at the next election. The essence of democracy is that while the majority in the elected Parliament rules, the opposition is provided every opportunity to be consulted in major national and international issues. Tyrannical majority and recalcitrant minority, according to Sir Ivory Jennings, a constitutional expert, are enemies which destroy democracy. Both the Government and the Opposition have their due roles to play for the interest of the country.

The establishment of Ombudsman, National Commission of Human Rights and Separation of Judiciary has been long overdue in the country and hopefully the year 2003 will see these institutions in action. The separation of Judiciary from the executive organs of the state is incorporated in Article 22 of the Bangladesh Constitution of 1972 , while Article 77 provides for the establishment of the office of Ombudsman with investigative powers into complaints about the administrative actions of government departments and agencies or public authority with the aim of raising standards in public adminis-

tration across the board. The Ombudsman's duty is to defend the rights of the ordinary people in dispute with the government or public authority.

The National Commission of Human Rights will be a body that will deal with complaints of invasion of human rights of an individual. Although an individual is empowered under Article 44 of the Constitution to move the High Court Division for the enforcement of fundamental rights, the Commission will be an additional agency to ensure compliance of human rights under national and international humanitarian laws. The functions of the Commission will be different from those of the High Court because the Commission will exercise powers of inquiry, conciliation and settlement of human rights complaint under the law of our Parliament.

International Sector

In his address to the UN General Assembly on 12 September, 2002, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan identified "four" current threats to world peace. First, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, second the defiance of leadership of Iraq of mandatory Security Council resolutions, third, situation in Afghanistan and not to continue commitment of international community and fourth, conflict in South Asia on the Kashmir issue.

During 2003, global peace seems to be threatened by US-Iraq tussle. Although the Bush administration has agreed to go by the UN Security Council, often it threatens to take unilateral action against Iraq if the Security Council does not do

its proper job. The US has raised the stakes in its face-off with Iraq over disarmament, reportedly ordered two more aircraft-carrier groups and a 1000-bed hospital ship to the Gulf. The White House said recently that it had yet to see evidence from Iraq that it would comply with a UN disarmament ultimatum and shed its weapons of mass destruction. All indications seem to suggest that in early part of the year 2003, an armed confrontation is likely against Iraq.

North Korea's brinkmanship on its intention to resume nuclear plants may be resolved through a diplomatic dialogue. The US Secretary of State reportedly ruled out any pre-emptive strike on North Korea's nuclear installations because it will have damaging impact on the region from radiation. Furthermore right now the focus of the US is on Iraq.

Israel-Palestinian conflict is likely to continue until the "Quatret" , Britain, the US, European Union and Russia, meet and lay definite plans for a viable Palestine state in 2005. The death toll since the present 'intifada' (uprising) of Palestin- ians against Israeli occupation rose to more than 2300,by the end of 2002, including about 1700 Palestinians and about 600 Israelis.

Hopefully global terrorism will be contained by active cooperation of all countries. Furthermore the causes of terrorism may simultaneously be addressed. The feeling of rage and anger among the poor may lead some of them to join extremist organisations and to a dangerous path. The widening gap of rich and poor nations is unaccept-

able. Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen said : "We live in a world incomparably richer than ever before Ours is also a world of

extraordinary deprivation and staggering inequality. An astonishing number of children are ill-nourished and illiterate as well as ill-cared for and needlessly ill."

With regard to the Multilateral Trade talks (Doha Round), the Ministerial meeting in Mexico in March 2003 may provide a forum for fair and free trade for developing countries. The New Year may see more entrenched positions for and against globalisation.

Africa is likely to be a better place in 2003. Kenya has recently demonstrated its commitment to a peaceful transfer of power. The conflicts in Africa seem to be resolved through negotiations such as in Congo and Angola. Zimbabwe may come to initiate a sensible policy in the country, in particular to the white farmers. The famine of 14 million people encompassing five southern states of Africa may not take its toll because of adequate supply of food by rich nations as a gesture of humanitarian spirit. The New Part- nership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), a blue print to develop Africa, will hopefully be implemented on the ground on the basis of three "opens"-- open economies, open societies and open governments.

In Latin America, the present internal conflict in Venezuela may see its end in 2003. The economies of Brazil and Argentina that took a battering in 2002 may regain their confidence. Although military governments ended in that part of the world, the relationship between Communist Cuba and other Latin American countries may continue to be the dividing factors in that continent.

In Europe the expansion of the European Union by 2005 will capture the imagination and debate among the member-countries as to its merits and demerits. The establishment of a new European Union military force of 60,000 in 2003 will for the first time be its new arm of flexing muscles. The EU force will take over peacekeeping operation in early months of 2003 in Macedonia and Bosnia from NATO forces.

In South Asia, Bangladesh's relations with our neighbour India will hopefully ride out the present difficulties and will be mutually supportive and beneficial. India-Pakistan relations are likely to go on their traditional path of animosity. SAARC has become a victim to the strained relations between India and Pakistan and 2003 does not look promising for the SAARC as the 12th Summit in Islamabad had been postponed by Pakistan.

As they say whatever will be will be in 2003. However, one may approach the New Year with hope and optimism. One hopes that 2003 will be marked with a strong underpinning of fairness, equality and justice to all human activities.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.