Although Bangladesh is still 'a low prevalence' country as regards HIV/AIDS, there are 'a lot of potentials' that could lead to 'an epidemic.'

Sounding this caution, experts have said while preparatory works relating to the disease and the process of action are being accelerated, 'concentrated and long-term efforts' are needed to prevent an epidemic.

Various studies show that use of condom among the 'most risk behaviour groups' in Bangladesh is very low, increasing the risk of 'easy transmission' of the deadly disease.

Using the principles of disease surveillance, experts measure sexual and drug taking behaviour in 'sub-populations most likely to be exposed to HIV' and on the basis of this, they warned that Bangladesh is not 'very far from an epidemic to happen.'

Quoting from a recent comprehensive study, they said use of condom among the risk groups in Bangladesh is the lowest among the South and South-East Asian countries, except Cambodia. An epidemic is linked to Intravenous Drug Users (IDU) in all countries of the region.

Nancy Fee, HIV/AIDS programme and development officer of the World Bank, said, "Of those who have risk behaviour, the risk is very high in Bangladesh. And there is high potential for transmission of the disease among the group due to low use of condom."

According to a study -- A Summary of Trends in Sexual and Drug-Taking Behaviours -- jointly conducted by the Family Health

International (FHI), the DFID and the USAID, commercial sex workers (CSWs) "using condom with last client in Bangladesh is 21 per cent (pc)" compared to 77.4 pc in Maharashtra, 80 pc in Andhra Pradesh, 93 pc in Gujarat, 89 pc in Kerala and 92 pc in West Bengal (India), 91 pc in Laos, 41 pc in Indonesia, 67 pc in Nepal and 94 pc in Vietnam.

Percentage of "direct condom use by CSWs with all recent clients in Bangladesh is only 0.5 pc" compared to 78 pc in Cambodia, 74 pc in Maharashtra, 62 pc in Andra Pradesh, 73 pc in Gujarat, 52 pc in Kerala, 51 pc in Orissa and 76 pc in West Bengal (India), 12 pc in Indonesia, 72 pc in Laos, 40 pc in Nepal and 64 pc in Vietnam.

The last sero-surveillance report of the International Centre for

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Diarrhoeal Diseases and Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) said that among the the CSWs, HIV prevalence rate is 2.5 per cent.

Besides, a recent survey revealed that each CSW in the city has at least 50 to 70 clients, most of whom refuse to use condom while having sex.

"It is hard to believe that clients are not aware of the disease and despite knowing about the risks of HIV, many of the CSWs agree to have sex with their clients without any condom or barrier," said an expert studying HIV/AIDS situation in Bangladesh.

"HIV is a complex epidemic, spreading at varying speed through different populations. Africa is the worst affected to date, but the epidemic is spreading rapidly in other parts of the world too."

He pointed out that HIV spreads only through a 'limited set of behaviours'. These are unprotected sex and the use of unsterile needles or contaminated blood products.

Measurement of risky sexual and drug-taking behaviours has become an important part of efforts to prevent an HIV epidemic. This is especially true in regions including much of Asia -- where the virus itself is not yet 'well-established in the general population,' he noted.