Signal to get ready

FROM water-logging in Dhaka city we now confront a somewhat developing flood situation that perhaps threatens to engulf the whole country. In fact, looking at the mid-section of Bangladesh in early-to-mid-July period one can sense how big the flood can get, other things remaining the same, as the standard phrase goes. Now how is 'Dhaka in the mid-riff region of the country looking at the moment: Buriganga, Turag, Kaliganga and Tongi canal are in a spate, albeit sympathetically with the surge in the country's river-system as a whole.

The outlook does not quite seem to be of the annually visiting type of flood recurring this year also; it might be of a more serious kind in prospect. At least that's what we must prepare ourselves for, so as not to be overwhelmed or thrown off-gear by its onset. If it does not come about in the form we fear it might, well and good.

The premonition of a bigger flood is based on two basic assumptions: first, the rains had come as early as in March-April and have not since quite left us except for brief spells. Secondly, in the very first week of the critical month of July, we have had cascading waters from the upstream coupled with heavy downpour in Bangladesh putting our rivers in a spate. Weather forecasts speak of more rains and further swelling of the rivers.

It is only when the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basins rise simultaneously and remain in spate for quite a while that we face the danger of a big flood. This is some way off yet; but who knows?

We think the time has arrived for a preparedness strategy to be adopted with the previous pitfalls avoided and the best practices embraced from past experiences with biggish-to-big floods. First and foremost, the day-to-day flood forecasting practice needs to be connected to a broader perspective and complemented by trend analysis based on regional meteorological coordination and international weather satellite readings. The gaps will have to be filled in there. Already, the flood embankments have breached in a number of places requiring to be urgently repaired. Men and material must be placed properly for a comprehensive relief and rehabilitation operation to be mounted on a short notice. Let's roll up our sleeves to meet the challenge before it engulfs us.