WHY should Pakistan go to war with India? The only serious dispute with it is over Kashmir. But the issue is that Kashmiris desire Azadi from the Indians. True, most Pakistanis support them, as they sympathise with the Palestinians' independent state idea. That is no reason to fight with India just as Pakistan is not going to go to war with Israel. Musharraf government says we support Kashmiris politically, morally and diplomatically. That is right. Let's stick to it. That should not be intolerable for India. Why, then, there is so much ill temper and war preparedness at great cost to both countries?

Indians allege that there is a large hiatus between Islamabad's words and deeds; the latter is supposed to be equipping, training, funding and infiltrating the Jihadis into Indian-controlled areas of Kashmir. This was certainly true for many years. Pakistan Army had convinced itself way back in 1990 that its then putative nuclear capability was such an invincible shield that behind it, Pakistan could go on bleeding India indefinitely without the fear of a serious reprisal. It is remarkable that there were cognisable dangers of war breaking out in the summer of 1990, probably 1995 and 1999, which the Americans claim to have

prevented.

Then came 9/11. Pakistan changed its stance vis-a -vis Taliban. Indians saw a window of opportunity open up when there was a terrorist attack on Indian Parliament on December 13 last. It gave Pakistan an ultimatum and massed its troops on its borders in an aggressive mode. India convinced its ally, the US, that it was also a victim of terrorism that Pakistan was exporting. The US bought the Indian argument hook, line and sinker. Hence it has put pressure on Pakistan to not only go on helping the International Coalition pursue

the fugitive Al-Qaeda and Taliban inside Pakistan but should cut off all links with Islamic extremist parties, groups, militias and others who sustain Jehad in Kashmir and indulge in terrorism in Kashmir and India.

Pakistani ruler, after vainly arguing that Kashmir Jihad is being conducted by disaffected Kashmiris by way of their freedom fight and that it cannot be confused with terrorism, changed again through the Jan 12 speech. Pakistan in effect promised to end its aid to Kashmiri insurgents. The rest of the world is holding General Musharraf to his January 12 speech. Under American leadership, the rest of the world has brought unbearable pressure on him to act on his words -- in the way the Indians want it. Pakistan government has kept on saying it is not sustaining the Kash-

mir insurgency. But almost no one believes that the Jihad can go on without Pakistan's active support. Meantime Indian and Pakistani governments have gone on trading fierce threats of war, including the use of nuclear weapons. The whole world has become anxious and is sending a stream of special envoys to urge Pakistan to "do more" to reassure India that it will do what it says. Musharraf said so again on May 27.

That should rid the people of Pakistan of the looming threat of war, probably nuclear, so that they can get on with their serious prob-

lems. Expectations of war were a huge and unnecessary distraction from their real problems. There are no concrete issues between Pakistan and India and Kashmir ought not to be a reason for war if Pakistani government means what it says. Well, earlier a certain amount of deception worked because there was that shield. Although India always had a clear edge even in atomic weapons capability, it took time to evolve a response to the Pakistani challenge. It now threatens a conventional war and dares Pakistan to act on its doctrine of first strike. It reserves the right to give a massive nuclear riposte to reduce all of Pakistan to a nuclear wasteland. That is where the two countries stand today.

Anyone who reads some of the Brookings Institute's latest reports on South Asia will agree with Paki-

stan's peaceniks that Pakistan's nuclear is a costly ornament for the Pakistan Army. Indian strategists planning action against Pakistan hope that the US with its special forces, precision munitions and CIA spooks would take it out. There are however reasons why the US would not do it. But it is most likely to prevent Pakistan pressing the nuclear button.

It cannot be repeated too often that no cause, including Kashmir, is worth a nuclear exchange. There are good reasons why Pakistan Army cannot cheat on Musharraf's promise, among them the US pres-

ence here itself with its supporters. Therefore the Indian bottomline will surely have to be satisfied. Indians will then climbdown the high horse they have been riding for the last six months. Whether or not a Pakistan-India dialogue resumes soon -though it should at an early date -Pakistanis should get on with their problems. What are these?

Out of these, one is all too familiar: growing unemployment and

poverty, inadequate healthcare and education and skills training facilities. The urban poor face even greater inadequacies. There is the near-total loss of sovereignty in economic matters and a creeping one in the political sphere, what with virtually the whole world telling us not to tell lies and do what is unavoidable. It will take a lot of doing and time before any improvement begins to be felt. One says this not

as an excuse to postpone discussion on the real structural problems. It is just that these cannot be taken in hand in the right spirit as soon as possible in situations of near-war. It will take hard toil and time to effect noticeable change, beginning with ridding the political life of the Army's stranglehold.

But there are other problems of the people that require immediate corrective action. To begin with, there is the personal dictatorship of a general, sustained by the Army acting as a vested interest. There is virtually no constitution or a true legal system. The suspended 1973

Constitution is a convenient fib to deflect the demand for the really needed changes -- it is already there and will be restored some day -- and also to effect the changes the dictator desires with flick of his pen. This has happened before; poor Constitution has been prostituted enough.

Anyhow ending the dictatorship of a person, quite irrespective of his acceptable qualities, must end quickly. That General Musharraf has given firm dates for October polls is to be welcomed, though the new Parliament can scarcely meet on October 13 next to effect the transfer of power. Let these dates not be changed on any pretext. As for the polls, they had better be on conditions that all democratic countries prescribe. The silly qualifications for candidates inserted under Gen. Zia's pressure ought to be dropped.

General Musharraf should not debar individuals just because he thinks they were corrupt. If the people still elect Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto after all his propaganda, all that can be said is the people deserve such leaders. The propaganda has not worked because it was seen as motivated. Anyway it is not for Mr. Musharraf to say who should and who should not contest an election; except certified lunatics or felons, all should be able to stand for elections even from a prison cell.

Above all else, there is that dangerous matter of Constitutional amendments. Changes made in the organic law by one man can just not be acceptable to the people or posterity. More so when it can be seen that all the changes are being made for one purpose: Parliament should be subordinated to the generals. That will divide the people and sow seeds of possible civil war and all round disaffection among sections that do not want to see their political system to be perpetually a hostage of the military.

There are others who also want changes in the basic law such as more autonomy for provinces or further empowerment of district governments. But they stick to well known methods of effecting changes: persuading two-thirds

majority of the two Houses, as mandated. Dictators possess limitless and unaccountable powers, are surrounded by sycophants and brook no opposition. So they venture forth into areas where wise politicians tread warily. The houses that Generals in Pakistan built have proved not only to be jerrybuilt but also preludes to disaster. Hope Mr. Musharraf will take heed.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.

***Dictators possess limitless and unaccountable powers, are surrounded by sycophants and brook no opposition. So they venture forth into areas where wise politicians tread warily. The houses that Generals in Pakistan built have proved not only to be jerrybuilt but also preludes to disaster.***