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India and Pakistan back to war posture: What's in store?

ZAGLuL A. CHOWDHuRY.
***It is a fast developing situation where every passing day may be marked with some ominous measures from either side. New Delhi has asked Islamabad to withdraw its high commissioner from India -- a development which is seen as a near-extreme step in the diplomatic front. India seems to be keeping its options open in both military and diplomatic areas.***
One incident seems to have unexpectedly changed the relationship betweenIndia and Pakistan, which was certainly not in good shape but definitelymuch better compared to what existed a few months ago. At least there was no talk of the likelihood of a war between them till this incident took place. True, India and Pakistan were on the brink of a war not too long ago, but that situation had changed to a large extent despite the fact that the massive troops deployment along theirlongbordersremainedalmostin tact as before. Both New Delhi and Islamabad said they found littlepossibility of a conflict between them. Rather, two governments were more seized with domestic issues that have big stakes on their respective administration. India's ruling NDA alliance is facing the wrath of the opposition centering the Gujarat situation while itself suffering setbas in its unity and cohesion. Pakistan's president and military ruler General Pervez Musharraf has just emerged a massive winner from in a referendum on hisstay in power for another
five years -- a development that the oppositionhas billed as unconstitutional and dirty trick to cling to power.
But the slaying of several Indian armymen along with some of their family members in the disputed Kashmir region has altered the scenario. It was a kind of bolt from the blue that is drastically changing the atmosphere for the worse. India said the killings were the dastardly act of the "terrorists" supported and aided by Pakistan while Pakistan says it was normal 'heroic' acts of the freedom fighters in Kashmir. All are familiar with the expressions that New Delhi and Islamabad use about incidents in the Kashmir region. Two Kashmiri outfits have claimed the responsibility for the attack in which four militants also died.
Tensions between two countries had subsided in recent months and an impression was gaining ground that India and Pakistan were rolling back from the brink of a war. A few months ago, it appeared that the outbreak of a conflict was only a matter of time. Because, mobilisation of troopsalongtheir borders and other forms of war preparedness were so much in full swingthat a war looked almost inevitable. The SAARC summit in Kathmandu definitely cast a sobering effect on the two belligerent nations. Two nuclear rivals, nearly a month after the SAARC gathering which brought Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan president General Pervez Musharraf not only on the same dais but also talking to each other, were showing slackening in their war postures.
Characteristically, both maintained that tensions continued to run high in their ties and one blamed the other for this situation. However, reality is that two countries rolled back from the war situation after the SAARC summit because of a varietyof reasons including external pressures, their
own compulsions and increasing calls for cessation of tensions both at home and abroad. As verbal accusations continued, their soldiers at the borders remained in their positions but talk of "imminent war" was no longer there.
The visit of several foreign dignitaries to this region at a time of simmering tensions urging two contending sides to demonstrate restraint and visits by key figures from these countries particularly India, which has more accusations against Pakistan than the other has at the moment, to countries which have considerable clout on New Delhi and Islamabad helped defuse the explosive situation to some extent. The United States, the worlds only superpower, seems keen to see a reduction in the current Indo-Pakistan enmity for a variety of reasons. The foremost of
them is that the United States has almost accomplished its political and military objectives in Afghanistan and as such it may not relish a war between India and Pakistan both of whom supported the American actions. A conflict between them would disturb the present achievement in Afghanistan and also provide a scope for encouragement of terrorism since Indo-Pak war would automatically bring "Kashmir" issue to the fore and also may encourage the remnants of the "Talibans" or hardcore Islamic militants in the region to be active on the scene. Besides, the extreme Islamic forces in Pakistan are lying low in the aftermath of the debacle of the "Talibans" but a war with India may help them gain dominance in the domestic politics. The West is not expected to like such a situation
and as such is willing to work for a cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan. It is in this situation, the talks of a likely conflict is back once again following the incident in Kashmir with India maintaining that it would avenge the killings.
The incident took place at a time when United States assistant secretary of state Christina Rocca was visiting the two countries with an avowed objective to carry out effort to further reduce tensions. But the development centering the incident has placed her in a difficult situation. India is talking of tough measures against Pakistan as prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee spoke of "suitable" punishment. On the other hand, Islamabad said that New Delhi is seeking to shift the activities of the Kashmiri freedom fighters on Pakistan and wants to exacerbate tension on the pretext of the incident. It said any Indian action would be met with befitting answer. Evidently, two countries are now back to square one -explosive situation.
It is a fast developing situation where every passing day may be marked with some ominous measures from either side. New Delhi has asked Islamabad to withdraw its high commissioner from India -- a development which is seen as a near-extreme step in the diplomatic front. India seems to be keeping its options open in both military and diplomatic areas. The killing in the army base has caused widespread consternation in India and this has putthe NDA government of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in compulsive circumstances to take some actions against Pakistan. Possibly, it cannot afford to remain silent in this situation. On the other hand, Pakistan,which is seen in recent times as coming down heavily on some Islamic militant outfits against the background of Afghan tangle and an attack on the Indian parliament a few months ago, cannot probably also be seen as
weaningaway further from its support and assistance from Islamic groups.President Pervez Musharraf is already accused by the Islamic forces of being not as supportive as he should be to the militants including those in Kashmir. Besides, any government in Pakistan cannot afford to be viewed as not backing the Kashmiri causes. Any conflict in this situation is not ruled out.
However, possession of nuclear weapons by both parties is acting as a deterrent for big conflict since likely use of the dangerous device can bring catastrophic destructions to which none can remain oblivious. Indian opposition while supporting the government in curbing "terrorism" in the Kashmir region and giving an answer to Pakistan for its "acts" has also cautioned about any hasty step against nuclear Pakistan. As such, things may not be blown out of proportion. But current tensionscan also lead to anything serious and both sides will be well advised to demonstrate impeccable wisdom in tackling the alarming situation although none is expected to suffer a loss of face.