& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

The veils of light and darkness

NURUDDIN MAHMUD KAMAL
***The big gossip now in Dhaka that Bangladesh is important to the world energy market because it
has huge reserves of natural gas has already turned into a hoax within six months since October, 2001. All the speculations about gas reserves have turned into conflicting debates.***
THE Energy Ministry high-ups and some of their chosen Subadars are currently busy in creating confusions in the Gas Committee meetings. But the authorities hardly realize, "when you have such arrogant members in the committee you would need no enemies." Allah says: Whoever is blind in this world, he will be blind in the hereafter (Sura Bani Israil,72). It is not the blindness of the eyes of one's head but the blindness of the eyes of one's heart that will prevent one from seeing the light of the hereafter. The only cause of the heart becoming blind is heedlessness. The principal cause of heedlessness is ignorance of the reality of the divine law and orders. What keeps one in this stage of ignorance is a darkness that completely covers one from the outside and fully invades one's inner being. Some of the properties of this darkness are arrogance, envy, backbiting and so many other hateful traits. It is these traits that reduce the best creation of Allah to the lowest of the lows.
I only hope that the anachronistic recent officials engaged in the Gas Reserves Assessment Committees do realize the implications of their unwise moves. It will also reflect a bad taste if the Committee arbitrarily selected one highly controversial gas reserve assessment in their predetermined bon-fire. This would be a moral defeat for such a high
powered committee. Be that as it may, the people of Bangladesh have been undergoing a psychotherapy, particularity after 26 December 2001, with regard to gas export (proposal) to India, in isolation. The fact of the matter is that a particular resource like natural gas cannot -- indeed should not -- be examined in isolation either from the rest of the energy system or from the goals of Bangladesh society. Believe it or not, such an effort has been observed in the Gas Reserves Assessment Committee (GRAC) meeting held in the past week, which is reported to have ended in a fiasco.
Thanks to our Hon'ble Prime Minister for her clear and categorical statement: "The government has not yet taken any decision on gas export, many press reports found exaggerated, false." She then rightly pointed out that the use of gas by its own people is top priority. By way of explaining the issue, she said, "We still have no concrete assessment of our gas reserves. After assessment, we will first meet our domestic demand and then set up gas- based industries for our own development." The Prime Minister concluded: "The question of gas export does not arise before the assessment is made and domestic demands met. We can think of gas export through value addition and we must discuss the issue with all. The BNP will not take any decision on gas export of its own" ( The Daily
Star, 24 April 2002). Nevertheless, there are still some people who believe that gas export is a compulsion. I have heard an anecdote for them, which says: the mornings look refreshing with a fresh hot cup of tea for the privileged husbands of Dhaka, whose wives are currently enjoying the benefit of natural gas in their home kitchens. If , God forbid, gas hook-ups are temporarily disconnected for 30 days to those lucky homes, the scenario would become alarming for those families. They would also realize how difficult the lives of 96 percent people of this country would be without gas connections.
Yet, it is a fact that the people of this country witnessed the frantic flurry of activity in Dhaka since October, 2001, perhaps at the instance of the U. S. government to decide about gas export from Bibiyana to Delhi within 100 days of the new government's so called honeymoon period. The country's wise Finance Minister and the State Minister for Energy were suddenly seen to have been overcharged with the idea of signing a contract for gas export at any cost, preferably within one month. Their expressed concern was, "why keep gas under-
ground -- produce and sell outside the national boundary at the earliest." Those big wigs hardly realized that their utterances did create an increasing public suspicion and distrust about the newly elected government's intent as well as the sincerity and motives of both. The general public was really jolted at the beginning. Many of us took off our blinders and were horrified by what we witnessed around us. If it did really happen, it would not only create a distrust among our people and the government, but we would have buried ourselves under a mountain of indestructible trash. If the intent so expressed by some quarters in the Ministry of Energy was really given a human face, Bangladesh would have begun clamouring in anger and the fear for immediate action to prevent the catastrophe would engulf citizens of this country. Allah is Merciful and Beneficent -- the intent of those loud voices have been quelled by the bold statement of the Prime Minister.
Nevertheless, it appears that we cannot be optimistic about the solutions of our energy problems for many reasons. Although we have not defined the issue properly, but
as a result of multitude scientific studies that have been carried out over the past 28 years, we know that we are not the luckiest of all developing countries in terms of energy resources. Let us admit for a change that we do not have the physical resources and technology to become self-sufficient. We actually do not have enough resources that can support long term development activities in the country. The only commercial energy source (gas) that we have and now under production has low proven reserve that can sustain at best up to another two decades or less (Petrobangla, April 2001). Even if the unsubstantiated Reserves Estimates (by enhancing the Recovery Factors) made by the Norweigian experts in early 2002 are considered, the depletion period of gas may be extended by three to four years. The coal mining effort (at Barapukuria from deep geological formations) is faced with great uncertainty since mid 1990. Other possible energy sources do not show any sign of optimism. That being the real story, the country's 130 million people in 2002 and likely 170 million people by 2020 will have to depend solely on the proven 11 Tcf remaining recoverable reserves
of natural gas for generation of electricity, production of fertilizers and fuel in the domestic kitchens.
Thus, the next 10 to 15 years will be our greatest period of stress, particularly on the count of our drive to reduce oil import bill (US $ 550 million or about Tk. 3100 crore in 2001 for only 3.3 million tons). At present, indigenous gas use help save the country over US$ 1.3 billion annually (against use of natural gas equivalent to nine million tons of oil). If indigenous natural gas was not available, the country's annual cash foreign exchange bill would have crossed US$ 1.85 billion annually (even at the rate of 370 billion cubic feet per year consumption of natural gas domestically in 2001). The next question may be, how much are we likely to earn from the proposed gas export by UNOCAL ? Gas exports would hopefully provide only US$ 3.7 billion in 20 years (as per proposal), which in Net Present Value terms would be about US$ 1.5 billion or equivalent to one year's saving of foreign exchange through domestic use of gas. Incidentally, income from export of 3.65 Tcf gas should be at least US$ 10.95 billion (@ of US $ 3.0 per thousand cubic
feet), 50 per cent of which is US $ 5.47 billion (for Bangladesh). Currently, Petrobangla is buying gas from Sangu (Shell Oil Company) @ US $ 2.90 per thousand cubic feet and selling at less than half the price to most customers in the domestic markets. Moreover, between the Power and Gas sectors, the government's loss is reported to be to the tune of Tk. 1200 crores annually. Why can't the theft and pilferage in electricity and gas sectors ( in the name of system losses) be stopped by the government so that the payment of bills to IOCs and IPPs can be made without the gas export ?
It may by recalled that in order to optimize the benefits of our gas reserves for present and future generations, it is imperative to have a national strategy and a clearly formulated policy which identifies national priorities in the energy sector -- not gas sector alone. In early 1970s, a comprehensive policy recommendation (supported by the Petroleum Act, 1974) to safeguard the national interest and to optimize national benefits to the national economy was chalked out and the country drew huge benefits through import substitution (of energy) during the 1980s and the 1990s. In 1995 a comprehensive Energy Policy was formulated, which, if properly implemented, could have offered tremendous benefit to the government and the nation. Unfortunately, it has not
happened as desired. Instead, gas exploration blocks were signed out to the foreign oil companies without the slightest hesitation, perhaps for petty gains.
The big gossip now in Dhaka that Bangladesh is important to the world energy market because it has huge reserves of natural gas has already turned into a hoax within six months since October, 2001. All the speculations about gas reserves have turned into conflicting debates. Due to uninformed and misguided interests, people are gradually getting disillusioned about the outcome of the committee reports because the two Gas Committees in their routine bouts have not been able to achieve anything even after crossing 120 days (as against 30 days originally earmarked on 26 December, 2001). With good common sense, one can now figure out what is right and what is wrong, notwithstanding the continued illogical arguments by the Energy officials. Perhaps, the stakes are big which cannot distract them from their confused frame of minds. There is however an escape route for the Committees: Let the gas export proposal be recommended to utilize the large Undiscovered Resources, so that the small Proven Reserves can be saved for domestic use. Thus, the veils of light and darkness be proved again.
Nuruddin Mahmud Kamal is former Additional Secretary to the Government and former Chairman, Power Development Board.