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A moral victory for the opposition

PALLAB BHATTACHARYA from New Delhi
INDIA'S BJP-led government is just half way down its five-year tenure. But murmurs of the next general elections are already heard in at least opposition circles, especially in Sonia Gandhi-led Congress party.
No doubt, relations between BJP and some of its key allies, including TDP , are under some strain over the issue of communal violence in Gujarat state. The government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee faces an opposition-sponsored censure motion on Gujarat issue in Parliament next week uncertain which way its a few allies will vote on the motion.
True, the government will not fall even if the motion is carried through. It may at best mean a moral victory for the opposition. Equally true is that Congress, the largest opposition group with 112 members in Lok Sabha, is not keen on general elections soon and would like the government to run its full course and weigh down by anti-incumbency factor and divergences within the ruling alliance.
Yet, two events in the last fortnight have seen Sonia Gandhi virtually throwing her party into
election mode. One was a conclave of top Congress leadership in Guwahati, capital of Assam state in the second week of April and then the annual session of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).
Gandhi used the two opportunities to give speeches which amounted to rolling out the party's election manifestopolitical and economic.
What was particularly significant was the choice of the timing of the Guwahati conclave of Congress leadership which coincided with the meeting of BJP national executive, the party's highest policy-making body, in the westernmost coast of Goa.
The most important thing thrown into sharp relief by the Guwahati brainstorming session and the Goa meeting was the juxtaposition of BJP leadership's "pro-Hindutva" stance and Gandhi's attack on BJP and Sangh Parivar in connection with communal violence in Gujarat and her articulation about secular and pluralist character of India.
In Guwahati, Sonia Gandhi told her party leaders that the people have begun to look at Congress as the "natural party for governance and expectations are high."
She also set out the parameters of Congress' concept of "good NEPAL
governance" which takes into account development and social and communal harmony and a balance between economic reforms and welfare state taking care of poor sections of society.
At the interaction with the captains of Indian industry, Sonia reiterated what she had articulated in Guwahati and added an interesting element when she sought to underline the significance of her inaugurating the annual meeting of the apex body Indian industrialists in a departure from the tradition of the Prime Minister doing the job.
"When the Leader of the Opposition is invited by the country's leading industrialists to start off their annual get-together, it is natural to speculate," Sonia said in her address to CII meeting adding "what could be the motive: what sort of political winds are blowing and in what direction?"
Using the violence in Gujarat as backdrop, the Congress chief sought to drive home two major contrasting issues: compare the BJP rule in Gujarat and Congress governance in 14 states and communal violence in Gujarat which she said hurt the Indian industry.
She told the captains of Indian industry that "economic policy cannot be seen in social vaccum.
There can be no growth in the absence of social cohesion and harmony. " The Congress, Sonia said, recognized the diversity of India and did not subscribe to "one nation, one people and one culture theory." She did not name any party or organisation and yet none missed the point she was making.
Notwithstanding Sonia Gandhi's remarks at the two forums, Congress sources say the party is not in favor of providing an alternative to Vajpayee government before its term ended primarily for two reasons: one, parliamentary arithmetic does not help Congress to go for a strong coalition and secondly, even if an alternative alliance is cobbled with either Congress in it or supporting it from outside it will be only a patchwork.
Congress' present strength in Parliament will not give it a decisive say in the alternative coalition. The feeling in Congress circles is that there is a mood for change in the country and it wants to benefit from this.
On the other hand, a patchwork alternative will only help BJP to overcome incumbency factor, an opportunity Congress does not want to give to the ruling party, Congress sources say.