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PAKISTAN

What next?

ZAGLUL A.CHOWDHURY
A REFERENDUM was held in Pakistan on April 30 on the issue of granting a five-year term to General Pervez Musharaf, the present president. At the time of writing this column, results had begun trickling down. Predictably, the army ruler will win the "yes" votes unless there is an unlikely unforeseen development contrary to the general assessment.
President Musharraf said he would accept the outcome regardless of its nature. Since he has no rival on the matter and such event and the result are not unfamiliar in the history of the country, the response to the referendum seems a foregone conclusion. The turn out of the voters and the "yes" votes could be matter of curiosity and that too to an extent for academic interests. The protests by the major political parties notwithstanding, the event has taken place and the authorities have seen to it that it is held without much fuss.
This referendum would undoubtedly influence in the political course of the nation in the coming days no matter how credible has been the voting or how many political parties opposed or favoured it. Indeed, the event is not without significance and it did generate some kind of enthusiasm.
The plan for the referendum was not a bolt from the blue. As the scheduled national elections for a new parliament are getting nearer, political and diplomatic circles in and outside Pakistan were agog with speculation's that president Musharraf, who is also the army chief, would come out with some kind of scheme so that he remains at the helm even after the parliamentary polls which will hopefully restore civilian rule in the country. Gen.Mushrafraf seized power in a bloodless coup in October, 1999 by toppling the elected government of prime minister Newaz Sharif.
The supreme court immediately after the coup, in a momentous judgement validated the taking over power by the armed forces but said polls must take place within three years to facilitate the country return to civilian rule.
Some time ago, the president said that parliamentary polls will be held in coming October as decided earlier. His remarks at a function in Islamabad in the presence of United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan about the much-awaited national polls was particularly significant because an impression was gaining ground in some quarters that the fate of elections may be uncertain in view of explosive situation with neighbouring India.
Although polls are scheduled only late this year, the war-like situation that existed with the arch-rival may force Pakistan to re-schedule the polls plan and may give a pretext to the military ruler for delaying the process. But his announcement set at rest at least for the time-being that the polls would be held in October. Gen. Musharraf said plans were moving accordingly and necessary measures are being taken in that direction. Indeed, his comments are in line with the promise to give the nation back democratic practice and this was welcome at a time when Islamabad is at most serious kind of loggerheads with New Delhi in last 30 years.
True, the army ruler is going by the supreme court judgement but this verdict could possibly be changed on the polls issue citing extra-ordinary situation of national interest centring tensions with India. The government can go to the Supreme Court itself for reviewing its earlier judgement in the
INDIA
context of the "Indian hostilities". But it appears that the country is moving towards the scheduled elections even though many issues related to the polls like whether the major political forces will take part in the polls and what would be the position of the Gen. Musharraf in the entire scenario are not clear.
The tensions with India also subsided in the meantime. The referendum plan came over a month ago since the military ruler needed to spell out his scheme on his own position in the context of the coming national elections to elect a new national assembly. The politicians in the country were dismayed by judgement of the highest court validating military rule but were gleeful as a timeframe was fixed for the new regime to restore democracy.
In the past, army rulers prolonged their rule on various pretexts and never showed signs to relinquish power voluntarily. Late Gen.Ziaul Huq, who staged a coup in 1977, remained for 11 years till he died in a plane crash. Present ruler Gen. Musharraf has said time and again that he would abide the verdict of the apex court and elections would be held within that timeframe. Musharraf has possibly no other option but go ahead with the polls later this year. Then again, he must decide something on his own future. This referendum would ensure his status for the next five years as he said he would remain the head of the country and government whatever be the outcome of the parliamentary polls.
Its is presumed that Gen. Musharraf is still grappling with different issues relating to the coming polls. Certainly he is chalking out a course for himself to be in the helm for several years to come. Although the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy comprising most political parties including to two major ones of two former prime ministers - Newaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto - both abroad, are opposed to the referendum, the military ruler has succeeded in carving out a niche for himself in recent times. His handling of the Afghan crisis in which Islamabad has big stakes, convinced many Pakistanis on the need for Musharraf to remain in the stage. Besides with, Newaz Sharif, forced exiled in Saudi Arabia and Benazir in self-exile in London, the country is without any major political figures. This has helped Musharraf as many began veering towards him without caring much whether he democratically elected or not.
Gen. Musharraf insists that he needs to complete the phase of "real democracy" that Pakistan requires. He is taking step one by one that obviously suits his scheme of things while seeking to give the impression that he remains committed to restoration of democracy in Pakistan. The referendum is a step in that direction. The PPP and the Muslim League have not as yet spelt out their policies regarding the coming polls. Musharraf may be encouraged to reach an understanding in some form with the Muslim League faction opposed to Nawaz Sharif, which is not a force as such to reckon with. He may also explore other form of accommodation with political parties.
The road to the coming national polls remains strewn with many impediments. The phase from referendum to the elections may be interesting. But will all these help Pakistan restore truly civilian rule? This is the main question that comes to the fore in the aftermath of the much-talked about controversial referendum which most political parties dubbed as unconstitutional but the supreme court ruled as consistent with the constitution.