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Is Vajpayee govt falling apart?

PALLAB BHATTACHARYA, New Delhi
Is the resignation of Federal Coal and Mines Minister Ram Vilas Paswan from the government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee indicative of the start of falling apart of India's ruling BJP-led coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on the ideological issue of secularism?
The dramatic resignation of Paswan, whose Lok Janashakti Party has demanded the removal of Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of violence-torn Gujarat state, is likely to put pressure on BJP's other allies like Telugu Desam Party, Janata Dal (United) which too joined the chorus for dismissal of Modi but are uncomfortable following BJP's rejection of the demand.
The feeling running through some restive allies of BJP is that if a small party like Paswan's with just four members in Lok Sabha can quit the government as well snap ties with NDA, why not the bigger allies with more numerical strength. TDP has 28 members in Lok Sabha.
Allies like TDP has so far refrained from taking the extreme step of pulling out of NDA thinking mid-term general elections might see the return of their arch political rival Congress party to power at the Centre. But Paswan having taken the lead, the situation may begin to change, analysts here say.
If Paswan, who cited the continued violence in Gujarat and Vajpayee government's "lack" of action to stop it News Analysis
as grounds for his resignation, has in mind a sizable section of muslim voters in his parliamentary constituency of Hajipur in Bihar state, TDP too has to take care of 12 percent minority voters in the state it rulesAndhra Pradesh.
But BJP is not unduly worried about Paswan's resignation nor about the possibility of TDP following suit. For, it is a question of mustering the arithmetic in Lok Sabha in its favour, the Vajpayee government already
appears to have succeeded in managing the support of new friends, including BSP and some other splinter groups.
Political sources, however, say the real reasons for Paswan's exit from government and NDA are less ideological.
Paswan, who fought the previous parliamentary elections in alliance with BJP, has been unhappy ever since he was shifted from the key portfolio of Telecommunication ministry to the less important of Coal and Mines last year, the sources say.
Paswan's level of discomfort went up further with BJP firming up alliance with BSP, his rival in securing the vote bank of backward castes in states like Uttar Pradesh and neighbouring Bihar. Besides, Paswan is also irked over his party not being accommodated in the coalition ministry BJP and BSP are going to form in Uttar Pradesh soon.
The sources say Paswan has been feeling strongly about his growing marginalisation as a leader of backward in BJP's scheme of things. He could read the writing on the wall that
his importance would be on the slide with the new tie-up between BJP and BSP, a party which champions the causes of backward castes and minorities..
It is more than mere coincidence, according to the sources, that Paswan's resignation and the decision to pull out of NDA came within hours of BSP leader Mayawati staking claim to form government in Uttar Pradesh with the help of BJP.
Paswan says he will chart an independent political course? But speculation is rife that he may join the opposition. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh has already invited Paswan to join the opposition rank and the Lok Janshakti Party chief's relations with Congress are also cordial.
Although Paswan has time and again attacked Bihar strongman and Rashtriya Janata Dal President Laloo Prasad Yadav, a patch-up between the two is not altogether ruled out as they may decide to come together to effectively challenge the combination of BJP, BSP and Samata Party in Bihar's caste-ridden politics.