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China faces mixed fortunes with WTO accession: UNCTAD

AFP, Geneva
China is likely to have a hard time adapting its state-run industries and agriculture as its new liberalised trading relations with the outside world take hold, a UN report released on Monday said.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development's (UNCTAD) annual report also indicated that concern China might flood world markets with cheap exports after accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), because of its huge, low wage workforce, were exaggerated.
"The nature of China's export industry and market access conditions for labour-intensive manufactures set some limits to the gains that it could reap from accession," the report said, adding that China also suffered from low productivity rates.
While it underlined that possible job losses in some Chinese industries would eventually be compen-
sated by expansion in other sectors, the report voiced fears about the specific impact of liberalisation on employment in state-run companies.
UNCTAD estimated that Chinese state companies employ 83 million people, generating 38 percent of national income and about half of exports, and indicated that they were largely inefficient.
"State-operated enterprises likely to be the worst affected by accession operate in industries such as machinery, electrical equipment, smelting and processing of metals, textiles, chemicals and chemical fibres, transport equipment, non-metal mineral products and food processing," the report said.
These account for about 72 percent of jobs in state enterprises, according to UNCTAD.
However, in a series of statistical simulations, it estimated that accession could have a positive impact on output and employment in sectors
such as clothing, electrical equipment, and some food products, but warned of the "severe" impact of a likely increase in imports of agricultural goods, textiles and motor vehicles.
UNCTAD said second-tier newly industrialised East Asian economies and some Latin American emerging markets such as Mexico would face the stiffest competition from China.
But it expected a surge in opportunities for a broad range of products on the Chinese market, mainly middle-range goods such as textiles, machinery and motor vehicles.
Those would primarily benefit other countries -- mainly imports from industrialised countries and top Asian economies -- while some African and Latin American countries would find more demand for commodities from the Asian giant.
Among its findings for other regions, the report noted that despite a concerted response from the world's most important central
banks after September 11, only in the United States had policy been consistently focused on limiting the impact of the slowdown on employment and real income.
"Thus, much still hinges on the strength of the United States recovery," it said.
UNCTAD said that stronger-than-expected consumer spending in the United States had limited the drop in output so far and kept the world economy afloat in 2001.
But, it said a sustained recovery would only occur if consumer and business confidence was "sufficiently buoyant" to convince producers of the need to increase investment in new production.
"As yet, there are few indications that this is the case," the report said, adding the likely outcome for the US economy would be a "low, but positive rate of growth".
"Such an eventuality would have limited knock-on effects for Europe and Japan, both of which are still dependent on an export-led upturn," it noted