Five Indian states go to the polls next week in what is being seen as a popularity test for Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and his 18-month-old coalition government.

The May 10 elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry could also prove crucial for opposition leader Sonia Gandhi, whose grip on the leadership of the Congress Party has never been as firm as she might have liked.

"I think these elections will answer the question of whether it is good to do business with Mr. Vajpayee," said Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst.

Vajpayee's government has been rocked by a recent scandal, triggered by an internet news website, tehelka.com, which secretly filmed senior politicians and civil servants taking cash from journalists posing as arms dealers.

"This is the first post-Tehelka election so it will be some sort of an assessment of what impact it has had on the government's image," Rangarajan said.

The scandal led to the resignation of the ruling BJP party chief Bangaru Laxman who allegedly accepted a bribe of 100,000 rupees (2,100 dollars) and defence minister George Fernandes.

The fallout also paralysed the Indian parliament for weeks, as opposition MPs demanded resignation of Vajpayee and his cabinet.

But corruption in New Delhi is not necessarily a major issue for voters in the provinces, who are more swayed by regional issues and problems of poverty, price rises and unemployment.

Vajpayee heads a coalition of more than two-dozen parties, two of which control incumbent adminis-

trations facing the electorate in Tamil Nadu and Assam.

If they crumble, Vajpayee will be weakened on the national stage.

In Tamil Nadu, the ruling party - a member of Vajpayee's coalition - is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave, with opinion polls predicting a victory for an opposition regional party in alliance with Gandhi's Congress party.

In Assam, a state riddled with separatist movements, another regional ally of the BJP faces an uphill task to return to power due to a formidable challenge put up by the Congress.

Ruling left-wing governments in West Bengal and Kerala also face stiff opposition from Congress-backed regional rivals.

In West Bengal, the world's longest-serving democratically elected Communist government is facing its most serious challenge since coming to power 22 years ago.

Any weakening of the ruling allies in these states, coupled with a strong showing by the Congress, would immediately impact on the federal coalition in New Delhi.

"Vajpayee will have to worry about getting more allies if his regional ally in Tamil Nadu is routed. The same is the case in West Bengal," said analyst Pran Chopra, head of the Delhi-based Centre of

Policy Research.

"What is at stake is the strength of the coalition and its allies particularly in the larger states of Tamil Nadu and Assam," agreed Rangarajan.

Such is the complexity of the coalition politics in India that any major shift in the state elections is likely to trigger off a frantic round of political horse-trading.

"There is certainly going to be intense politicking after these elections," said Chopra. "Both for the Vajpayee's own BJP party and the Congress, the outcome of these elections will decide whether parliamentary elections will be advanced."

Muddying the equation further is the possibility that a powerful showing by regional parties could signal a revival of efforts to set up a genuine "Third Front" capable of challenging the BJP and Congress at the