West Bengal and Assam, two of the five Indian states where fresh assembly elections are to be held next month, are witnessing realignment of political forces, with the Congress and the BJP set to tie up with new allies.

After weeks of hard bargaining, the Congress finally sewed up a seat-sharing accord with Trinamool Congress in West Bengal on Monday. The day before, an opinion poll, conducted by a leading market research group for "T he Times of India,” put the combination of the two parties as favourites to dislodge ruling Left Front in West Bengal. The alliance came about a month after Trinamool pulled out of the ruling National Democratic Alliance, led by the BJP

Political observers say the alliance will benefit both. The Congress, they believe, will piggyback Trinamool in a bid (o regain the political space it has lost over the years as the main opposition party in West Bengal. On (he other hand. Mamaia Banerjee's party is likely to use the Congress' company to win the votes of minorities, alienated to some extent because of its earlier association with (he BJP.

One of (he major reasons for (/ingress’ dwindling fortune in the

state is that it has not been able to project itself to be a force firmly opposed to the Left Front, largely due to the party high command's warming up to the left parties at the national level.

Congress leaders feel the company of Mamata, who has emerged as the main anti-Left symbol in West Bengal since quitting Sonia Gandhi's party in 1997, will help the party.

While Congress-Trinamool alliance was predictable, really dramatic was the effort by the BJP and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the ruling party of Assam led by Chief Minister PrafuUa Kumar Mahanta, to firm up an alliance in the coming assembly polls in the north-eastern state.

Dramatic because il was only last about a week ago, both the BJP and the AGP declared that each of them had decided to go it alone in the polls. But with an opinion poll favouring the Congress to regain power in Assam, the two have decided to explore possibilities of a tie-up in a bid to checkmate Congress.

Ilie BJP central leadership has summoned its Assam unit leaders to Delhi to persuade them to accept the alliance with the AGP and Mahanta, on the other hand, was authorised by his party's highest

decision-making forum to seek a tie-up with the saffron party. A preliminary discussion on the proposed tie-up took place last week between senior BJP leader and Indian Home Minister LKAdvani and Mahanta.

The Assam unit of the BJP was, till the other day, strongly opposed to an alliance with the AGP because of the strong anti-incumbency factor working against the latter. The BJP state leadership is also understood to have argued with the party's central leadership that a triangular fight could help theCongress only in 21 of the total of 126 assembly seats in Assam and there was, therefore, no reason to worry about a division in anti-rulingparty votes.

To press its contention against a tie-up with the AGP the BJP leaders in Assam even cited the example of the party's disastrous electoral performance in the southern state of Karnataka in the 1999 assembly polls. It had aligned with the slate's the then ruling party, going against BJP Karnataka unit's warning that such a move would invite strong anti-incumbency factor. The election also saw the defeat of (he ruling party in Karnataka.

But the reading of BJP central leadership, according to party sources, is that the party's image has received a knock in the wake of the internet media company's expose of comipiion in defence deals and the Congress may gain from the episode more than thought earlier. So. all efforts should be made to deny the Congress the scope to derive benefits from a triangular battle.

If the alliance between the BJP and the AGP does fructify, it will see the parting of ways by left parties and some minorities outfit which are now with Mahanta's party. These parties, according to analysts, may come together to form a I hird Front in Assam, causing a further split in anti-(ongress votes.