in Canberra, Australia

SOME argue that the influence of military dictatorships, failure of populist Prime Ministers and the Islamic conservatism have placed Pakistan into a state of permanent political crisis. The Pakistani people do not seem to be fortunate in their political leaders whether they come from the right or left.

Good leadership is an essential element in good-governance of a country. Corruption and nepotism coupled with entrenched feudalistic system the leaders have managed to keep Pakistan at the bottom of social indicators compared to those in many South East Asian countries. Hostile relations with India and active involvement in the civil war in Afghanistan have also influenced internal politics and leadership in Pakistan.

After the horror of 1971 unleashed in Bangladesh by the then military regime in Pakistan and the independence of Bangladesh, truncated Pakistan had Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto as its leader. He was a populist leader and a great hope for the country. His tragedy lay in the fact that he became a dictator and would not tolerate any opponents to his

regime. His inability to provide food, clothing and shelter to his people as promised disillusioned the people. He became so self-satisfied and complacent about his 'skilful' handling of foreign relations that he ignored the political processes that were fuelling the rise of a right-wing opposition in the country tacitly backed by the military.

After the death of President Zia-ul Haq in August 1988 in a plane crash believed to have been caused by a bomb (suspected to have been engineered from international and internal forces who were against the growing 'Islamisation' of Pakistan), the political power in Pakistan oscillated between two politicians Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif for the next decade.

They turned out to be inadequate leaders, as both were interested in self-aggrandisement and used their position to enrich themselves. Both used their personality to win over Pakistani voters who appear to be betrayed and left in the lurch. Twice they became Prime Ministers of the country and twice they were dismissed. They were both convicted on corruption charges and are at the moment in exile. Presently Ms. Bhutto is living in Britain and Nawaz Sharif in Saudi Arabia.

External tensions with neigh-

bouring India on Kashmir question added to the downfall of both leaders.

During Benazir Bhutto's regime, many were disappointed with her lack of implementation of policies. She failed to introduce reforms regarding feudalistic hold on agricultural farms, on womens' oppression and discrimination, and demonstrated intolerance towards her political opponents.

Her first regime could not come to grips with the ethnic violence in Bhutto's home province of Sind the scene of bitter and bloody rivalry between 'mohajirs' (who migrated to Pakistan from India) and Sindhis. During her second term of office, she appeared to have been mainly occupied with her vendetta against the leader of the opposition, Nawaz Sharif. She failed to lessen religious fundamentalism which became stronger. Her government was known for corruption, patronage and nepotism. Pakistan was suffering from increasingly deteriorating socio-economic conditions.

Ms. Bhutto became alienated from reality and her relations with the President deteriorated. Externally perennial tensions with India were at its peak during her administration and the relations with her counter-part in India became strained. In July 1996, Pakistan suffered a major blow to her attempt to pressure India into negotiations when the UN Security Council who removed the Kashmir question from its agenda. She was removed at the end of 1996 for the second time by her one time protege, the civilian President. After that, Nawaz Sharif was elected and came into power in 1997.

In an interview with the media last month, Benazir declared that she had decided to return to Pakistan because the supporters of her party Pakistan's Peoples Party wanted her to lead the party. She declared that she wanted to "build a post cold-war identity for Pakistan." Dramatic changes to international relations have taken place in the '90s and many argue that Pakistan needs to determine a new course for foreign policy that can prioritise between a number of competing interests and garner domestic political support for them.

This is important for Pakistan since after the end of the cold-war, the US one time ally, seems to have lost its primary interest in Pakistan and has strengthened its relationship with India. In addition, China, a traditional friend, also appears to be keen to restore its friendly relations with India. Furthermore, Pakistan's support since late 1996 to the Taliban administration in Afghanistan appears to have annoyed Iran, the US and Russia. (Even Saudi Arabia has turned a cold shoulder to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.)

While Benazir Bhutto was in power she was carried away with her political victory and failed to fulfil her commitments to the people in accordance with her election mani-

festo. Nor she was able to adjust the directions in foreign policy in the light of the rapid change in the global political environment.

However, since then it appears from media reports that she has changed her tune. She hinted that she would pursue peace and stability in the region. This implies that she seems to be willing to come to a deal with India on Kashmir because history and experience illustrate that the Kashmir dispute affords an excuse for the military to intervene in the political arena. Ms. Bhutto also wishes to strengthen the civil institutions of the representative democracy in the country so as to prevent military adventurism in future. These ideas seem to be good but it all depends whether she will be committed to them if she regains power.

General Musharraf is reported to have vowed to keep out both Ms. Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in the political arena through laws banning convicted politicians from taking part in politics. Benazir Bhutto's conviction is under appeal in the Supreme Court in Pakistan. She was convicted in April 1998 and sentenced to five years imprisonment and fined millions of dollars. If the Supreme Court acquits her, then the law will not be applicable to her and she can return to politics, but whether she will be arrested on arrival is another matter altogether.

Pakistan is strategically important as the area is proximity to Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran, China, and oil rich Arab Gulf countries. Military rule has prevailed because the civilian leaders have made a mess in Pakistan. The survival of Pakistan as a democratic country will depend on the need for thoroughgoing social transformation and the institutionalisation of democracy together with tougher policies towards Taliban administration and a peace deal on Kashmir dispute with India.

In the changed global scene, it makes sense for Pakistan to change the direction of its domestic and foreign policies, otherwise it risks being isolated. If Benazir Bhutto is successful in carrying out her 'new agenda', she may be successful in leading Pakistan to a new horizon of hope, peace and progress.

The main question is that given her past records is it too much to ask from her? The critics are pessimistic about her change of mindset. It is argued that a few factors may work against her efforts: Islamic conservatism, anti-Indian sentiment prevailing in many sections of the community, anti-Bhutto disposition among some elements of military establishment and political concession to a deal on Kashmir.