EVEN as the peace initiative on Kashmir has been gaining momentum since late November last year when India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee offered his ceasefire proposal in Kashmir and it was responded positively by Pakistan there erupts a new spate of violence not only in Kashmir but also well within both India and Pakistan casting gloom over the prospects for peace. The attacks on the Red Fort in Delhi a place of great symbolic significance by the militants of Lashkar-i-Tyeba came at a time when attempts to start a dialogue between Indian government and Kashmiri groups were making steady progress and the arrangements further dispatch of APHC leaders to Islamabad were under way. The attack in the heart of India carried out by a handful of militants was a severe blow to India's power and prestige.

But it was not India's only predicament. There is little evidence that the Indian government's unilateral ceasefire has produced satisfactory result. While some of the extremist terrorists groups have refused to abide by the ceasefire, most other militant groups do not seem to have totally de-escalated the terrorist activities. The number of Indian security forces personnel killed by the terrorists has shown no significant decline, and even increased in some regions. The number of civilians murdered and injured remained static even during the ceasefire period. Only three days after the Red Fort attack there was a huge bomb explosion in 15 corps Headquarter in Srinagar. There is also a mysterious silence on the part of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen at whose behest the first ceasefire was announced in July last year.

In the meantime, Vajpayee has extended his Ramadan ceasefire for the second time and other interesting. Events like Red Fort incident, the sudden return of Kashmiri Freedom Movement prodigal - Hashim Quereshi in New Delhi and the imminent departure of APHC to Pakistan have taken place in quick succession. All these suggest that the peace drama is about to reach a climax. But no one is sure as yet as to in what shape it will end up.

While angrily reacting to the attack on the Red Fort India however resolved that the incident was not going to stall peace moves in Kashmir and an ongoing efforts to talk with Pakistan. Yet what is of concern is also a spate of violence in Pakistan where in a well-coordinated series of bomb explosions Lahore, Faisalabad, Hyderabad and Kharian were rocked only three days later on 25 December, 2000.

In case of Red Fort Laskar-i-Tyeba claimed the responsibility for the incident. But there were no such claimants for the bomb blast in Pakistani cities. However, Pakistan has been instinctively pointing an accusing finger at India. For all bomb blast in Pakistani cities the most popular theory goes that it is the part of a tit-for-tat covert war waged by Indian intelligence agency. This campaign is intended to raise the cost for Pakistan of its support for the struggle in Kashmir. It is this reasoning which makes the linkage between Red Fort incident and recent bomb blasts in Pakistan seem quite plausible. It this logic is pursued, it seems obvious that more such retaliatory incidents can be expected after some militant groups have intensified their increasingly daring attacks on Indian targets in and outside Kashmir.

The Vajpayee government views the escalation of militancy by Lashkar-i-Tyeba and others as a conscious effort to sabotage the peace moves. These moves include the Kashmir ceasefire announcement by New Delhi, restraint on, and announcement of withdrawal of some troops from the hope by Pakistan and an impeding visit by APHC delegation to Pakistan. Apart from the rejectionist Kashmiri groups many others including the Hizbul Mujahideen have not reacted in knee-jerk fashion to New Delhi's ceasefire initiative. A window of opportunity seems to have opened up for exploring a peaceful resolution of Kashmir conundrum.

However, failure to capitalise on it by any or all of the actors could rapidly shut the window and spell disaster for future. This could make it much harder next time round to rehabilitate trust and confidence among the protagonists. The present signs are more hopeful than they were in the past. But the extreme fundamentalist groups and their supporters amongst the religious parties in Pakistan seem bent upon sabotaging the emerging peace prospects. For the military government of Pakistan a partial paralysis can be detected on how to handle the extremist Jihadi groups.

Perhaps, India has a role to play here. It is of the view that Musharraf can rein in the Jihadists if he wants Musharraf is already misunderstood for the signs of moderation he has shown. The Islamic Right in Pakistan has described him 'security risk' and asked the generals to sack him for abandoning the Kashmir agenda. India would do well by keeping in view General Musharaf's limitations.