THE perception in the international community appears to be that President Saddam Hossain of Iraq Is winning and the sanctions against Iraq have failed to bring him down. Tills perception is being reinforced by the fact that aircraft from France. Russia. Jordan and Yemen have recently landed in Baghdad contrary to the sanctions. These countries have argued that they did not break the sanctions because these flights are humanitarian in nature and they do not require the permission or approval of the UN.

The question is: why do the UN sanctions fail against Iraq? Ordinarily sanctions are imposed to put a country in severe economic difficulties so that the people realise that their sufferings and deprivations are due to the flawed policy of their leader. The gradually built-up resentment of the people leads in the long run to the overthrow of the leader in question. The ousting of the Yugoslav President Milosevic early this month through 'people's revolt in Belgrade is one of the shining examples of the emergence of people's power" against an unpopular regime.

The Western countries imagined in 1991 that what had occurred in Yugoslavia would take place in Iraq. But this has not been the case. Rather President Saddam Hossain's grip in the country is reported to have strengthened by the sanctions. There is a view that the sanctions have destroyed the middle-class society In Iraq that ordinarily rise agaInst the unpopular regime. In the absence of an enlightened m I d d 1 e - c 1 a s s there appears to be no sign ol revolt against the regime in Iraq.

The Arab people have seen the double stan dards in the policy of the West towards the Middle East. They hold the view that one policy is being pursued for Arabs and another towards Israel. Israel has been allowed to flout the UN Security Council resolutions with Impunity. The disenchant-ment of the Arab people with the West has provided, according to many observers, their support to Iraqi regime. Israel Is believed to be in possession of nuclear weapons in the region and has the status of a regional superpower. There is a view that until there is a balance of power in the region and peace Is established between Israel and Arabs, the sanctions appear to be unjust punishment for Iraq.

There is common view that although the sanctions did not affect the elite of the Iraqi society, they had affected disastrously the living standards of the ordinary Iraqis and led to the malnutrition and death of the children in Iraq and it has become a moral issue in international community. People are aghast to see that children are dying because of the lack of medicine due to the sanctions. According to UNICEF, the death rate among children in Iraq has jumped from 56 to 131 per 1000 births after the sanctions.

The effect of the UN sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council against Iraq in 1991 has even unnerved the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. He was reported to have said that the UN

should think of another alternative way other than sanctions to meet such situation. Two UN Humanitarian Co-ordinators had resigned in protest over the devastating eftects of sanctions on ordinary Iraqis.

Another factor which seems to be working in favour of Iraq is the shortage of oil and its high price in the market. The high price has developed as a serious political issue in the US and the European Union. Sanctions have kept a great deal of Iraqi oil off the market and a flood of oil from Iraq could markedly ease the situation

globally. After all Iraq has been endowed with vast resources of oil after Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. There is a view that Iraq should be allowed to pump oil to flood the market and there is a pressure that sanctions should be withdrawn.

There is a view that the oil-rich Iraq would rebuild the country after sanctions are withdrawn and tire West and Russia would have the opportunity to make money from re-butiding its infrastructure and oil machinery. An important consideration lurking in the rush of aircraft flying to Baghdad seems to be the desire of getting preference in the contracts to rebuild Iraq when the sanctions cease.

The other view: The US and Britain argue that the unavailability of medicine and other essential supplies is being manipulated by the Iraqi Government to show to the world that Ure sanctions do not work, are hurting the children and as such they should be lifted. Furthermore they contend that the regime has built many lavish palaces in the country’ and funds are being diverted towards the manufacturing of weapons of mass destruction. It is also alleged that the warehouses in the country are full of medicine but they arg not being deliberately released * the public to exert a political pressure on (Tie international community. Their argument focusses that whatever the inter national community has beer witnessing in Iraq, it is due to the policy of the regime, rather than the effect of sanctions.

It appears that this line of argument is not being totally shared by France. Russia and China, the three Security Council permanent members. They appear to believe that the sanctions have not been working in Iraq because there is a fatigue syndrome in continuing sanc-tions against Iraq and this is no exit strategy conceived in 1991. Furthermore the sanctions are hurting the ordinary Iraqis.

Conclusion: The Security Council is at a bind because Iraq would not accept the latest UN proposal of UN inspectors inside the country’. Iraq considers the proposal irrelevant since it argues that it has complied with the UN resolutions. The UN Security Council seems to be without any definite course of action dealing with President Saddam Hossain who has outlived politically all the people who opposed him in 90-91. There is a view’ that the West is paying the price for its lack of vision in its policy’ towards Iraq.

The author a barrister is formol Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN. Geneva.