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Indian balance of payments surplus seen dwindling
BOMBAY. July 20: India will struggle to extend a four-year sequence of balance of payments surpluses this year due to high oil import costs and slowing capital inflows, analysts said today, reports Reuters.
Ballpark estimates for the overall balance in 2000/01 (April-March) range from an optimistic $3.5 billion surplus to a barely balanced position, implying capital flows will just about meet the current account deficit.
That means India will not eat into its $36.7 billion foreign exchange reserves, which covers eight months of imports, but it will not be adding much either.
Last year, the balance of payments surplus surged 50 per cent to $6.4 billion, adding $5.5 billion to the country's reserves.
Invisible inflows, including software and non-resident remittances, restricted the current account deficit to 1.5 per cent of GDP. and analysts expect a repetition.
“The overall balance of payments will be slightly weaker than last year and the current account deficit will widen mildly," said P K Basu, Southeast Asia Chief economist at CSFB, Singapore.
The software industry has forecast its exports will surge 58 per cent to $6.3 billion this year.
The extra export revenues from software will partially offset an expected $4-6 billion increase in the oil import bill to around $17-19 billion this year, but will not compensate for an expected slippage in capital inflows.
Exports rose 30 per cent in April and May. but import growth was more robust at 37 per cent. With the economy projected to grow' over seven per cent that fast pace in imports may be sustained.
"The trade deficit is going to widen, but a buoyancy in invisibles is expelled to curb the current account deficit to less than $5 billion," Rohini Malkani, economist at Jardine Fleming India Broking said.
And. if the central bank is not able to spend as generously as in the past, the rupee, though convertible only on the current account, could be in for more volatile swings this year.
India's balance of payments moved into a surplus four years back when it became a popular destination for foreign investors.
Govt under fire over Air India divestment
NEW DELHI, July 20 : Government's decision to divest the stakes in Air India came in for severe criticism yesterday as members of parliament from different parties made a forceful plea against granting controlling shares of the national carrier to a foreign strategic partner, says PTI.
The MP’s while attending a meeting of the standing committee ol the civil aviation ministry here, also castigated the government for going ahead with disinvestment of Air India even before the civil aviation policy was finalised, sources In the committee said.