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PM may find US trip too warm for comfort

Gas export likely to top agenda in Hasina-Clinton talks

By M An warn 1 Haq
Although the Bangladesh Prime Minister Is expected to be received warmly by the US President during her first official visit to US in October, she might come under serious pressure to accept several proposals regarding US Investments in Bangladesh, diplomatic sources said
A flurry of diplomatic communications is going on between Dhaka and Washington to confirm the date, detailed itinerary and to fix the salient ‘talking points' during the summit between Sheikh Hasina and Bill Clinton.
It may seem to many that her visit only two and half months before the end of Clinton’s presidency may not be very significant. But the fact is otherwise. Considering the bipartisan foreign policy of the US government and the Congress. Shiekh Hasina's visit will have all the elements of seriousness and continuity of growing US interest in Bangladesh.' the sources said.
They said the summit between Hasina and Clinton will focus on further expanding US
business and commercial interests in Bangladesh, particularly in the oil and gas sector with special emphasis on pipeline export of gas to India involving US companies.
US investors in the energy sector have been fine-combing Bangladesh for the last few years. Their interest to explore energy in the country and export gas to India through pipeline is now an open secret.
Prior to his departure from Dhaka. US Ambassador John Holzman called for sale of gas without waiting much. He expressed the apprehension that gas might lose its value if kept reserved for as long as 50 years as agreed publicly both by the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.
In fact. Holzman s views were articulation of US government's latest policy stand and an indirect pressure on the government, which is likely to be more direct when the Bangladesh Prime Minister meets the US President . By all indications, it seems the US government will not be happy
to hear a negative answer, the sources said. But it would be a difficult decision for Sheikh Hasina in an election year.
The US government’s position on pipeline gas sale has become more obvious now because of the pressure from American oil giants.
Former US ambassador to Sri Lanka Teresita C Schaffer now working with the Washington based Centre for Strategic and International Studies came to Dhaka last month with representatives from a number of Latin American countries which export gas through pipeline. She pleaded tor pipeline export gas to India.
Bruce McMullen . Senior Energy Advisor of USAID in Dhaka, when asked at Schaffer's news conference said. "Bangladesh’s gas reserves would vary between 13 TCF (trillion cubic feet) and 100 TCF although the figures swing". The figures are generally not accepted by Dhaka, which says the proven reserve is In the neighborhood of 10 TCF.
However, a section of Bangladesh's diplomats feel that when the Americans have spoken of such a huge reserve, they are likely to be correct. According to the diplomats, what the US oil companies say about reserves is nearly half of what Bangladesh actually possess. "They would always give a conservative figure like any sensible businessman", one diplomat said.
The US government would also not mince words in expressing its frustration over the lack of progress in setting up of a private container terminal at Chittagong by Stevedore Services of America (SSAi involving an investment of around 500 million dollars. It will persuade the Bangladesh government for this project.
Allowing trade union activities in Export Processing Zones in the country is another issue between the two countries. However, some observers feel that the US may modify its position on the Issue if the government allows welfare associ-.uions' comprising representatives of investors and employ -
The US government is learnt to have expressed its unhappiness over Dhaka s refusal to sign the Status of Fences Agreement (SOFA). The US and 56 other countries haw signed the SOFA.
Although, publicly, the US B>sition has always been that haka is free not to commit itself to any defence binding. Bangladesh has accepted a US survey teams report on Humanitarian Assistance Need Assessment (HANA). But the HANA programme falls far short of any type of military collaboration which Washington desires from Bangladesh considering its emerging geopolitical importance.
Opening a broader military cooperation is likely to be mooted again during the Hasina-Cllnton Summit.
The US side may insist that Dhaka purchase more military hardware from Washington. There has been considerable concern in Washington over Bangladesh’s purchase of military equipment from China. Russia. Dhaka's considerable increase In defence purchase from India in recent times has also increased Washington's concern, the sources said
Discussions on enlarging the scope ol tiefence training programmes and Joint military' exercises between the two countries are also expected to figure.
What would Dhaka ask from Washington?
Most of that were already discussed tn Dhaka during Clinton’s visit on March 20 Clinton’s offers in Dimka Included foot! assistance worth 90 million dollars and 50 million dollars tor an overall energy survey in South Aslan countries including Bangladesh
The US President also indicated that several million dollars would be available to help 30.000 Bangladeshi children move to safer working conditions in factories they are working now.
It is possible that the pledges made by Clinton in Dhaka regarding assistance for further capacity building for disaster management and construction of cyclone shelters will be formalised during Hasina's visit.
A more concrete package on Clinton’s promise for assistance to combat arsenic contamination of ground water is likely to be announced.
The US is also expected to release some six million dollars under a "debt for nature swap" to reduce Bangladesh's debts and another 4 16 million for the development of women and children.
Dhaka is likely to renew Its plea for increasing US quota for readymade garments export and regularising undocumented Bangladeshis In US.
The issue of deportation of the killers of Bangabandhu and formalising extradition procedures will be raised once again. Washington has already informed that It could be done but would involve some lengthy procedures
Meanwhile US investments in Bangladesh shot up to nearly 750 million dollars from 25 million dollars in the last three years.