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New Group Dynamics in Future Bangladesh Elections

by M. Rashiduzzaman
***Voters pay more attention to the organised political, social and interest groups and the parties that they support. The groups can energise the campaign activities, and they can offer a greater visibility to the parties. . . even short-lived group mobilisation can play a substantive role in the future elections.***
WITH an eye to the not-yet-announced but the not-too-distant national elections, the leaders of both the Awaml League (AL) and the BNP-led alliance are thumping up 'mass contacts” — a hackneyed euphemism for getting in touch with people. Postured as a populist revival of old ties between the Netas (leaders) and the Karmls (workers), it's a staple in political speech making and campaign statements in Bangladesh. Yet, the "mass contact, a vague and operationally unfocused vocabulary. Is tactically incapable of turning around the results of a fiercely contested election unless backed by such efforts that would mobilize groups and individuals. Indeed, the emerging but the not-yet-politlcally-committed groups deserve a greater electoral importance — the parties can benefit more by concentrating on them; they can win elections by sensitizing and swaying those forces. The hyperbole cascading through the public meetings populated by the party loyalists and the contrived foot soldiers no more convinces the skeptic voters although the old political rhetoric dies hard. Haranguing the hard core party followers and trumping up emotions over historical claims and counterclaims are losing their grounds as viable electoral tactics — now the contesting parties will benefit more by assembling those who would not ordinarily "do or die” for any one of them. The election behaviours have taken weird turns and twists in most democracies — the new tactics of wooing the "middle roaders", the less-partisans and the undecided voters are deciding electoral fates.
Most observers agree that the forthcoming election will be heavily contested between the ruling party and the opposition alliance in Bangladesh. In the light of the 1991 and 1996 election results, the electoral strengths of the BNP and the AL balanced each other— 1 wonder how far only the open ended public appeal would alter the voting calculus In the anticipated election. From what I perceived in 1991, the AL did not attract many voters beyond its own cadres and the traditional followers plus the minority voters. On the other hand, the BNP support came from across the party line while It has not been quite clear who were exactly its unflinching supporters. The flexible nature of the
BNP was an advantage since its non-Ideological Image attracted (he moderate voles, not tied to any particular group. However, things changed in 1996 when the BNP. for more than one reason, suffered the loss of power although the Awaxni-BNP gap in popular votes was by no means devastating.
Will there be a more realistic electoral mobilization of the AL and the BNP-led opposition partners? Predicting election with quantitative or qualitative Inferences is not a perfect science, to say the least. But we can examine the new group dynamics that the AL and the BNP would face In the next election.
Generally speaking, the students will continue to be useful in the future electoral power play — the student-cohorts from the schools, colleges and universities will carry their respective party messages to the people. None of major parties will disband Its student fronts although there are lip services to eschew campus politics. The students will either coerce or pursue the voters on the Election Day — but the student groups are not expected to make any mass migration from their respective partisanships. Yet over the years, the image of the feuding and gun-flaunting students In politics has sharply eroded. The politically committed labour unions will not readily drift away from their well-known ideological and political positions. Much to the point, the itinerant politicians of the two main parties cannot reach the newly emergent groups and the wavering voters only by riding on the back of the student and labour organizations.
Among the new groups, the small shopkeepers, particularly in the big metropolitan areas In Dhaka. Chittagong. Khulna, and in most district towns could significantly dent the future electoral politics. (According to an unverified source of information, the Dhaka metropolitan areas have more than 600 shop owners' as-
sociations). It's not so much of a new group, but It's now a much larger and seemingly more organized group than ever before. The small shopkeepers have recently captured public attention as the victims of persisting extortion. murder and harassment — they have vowed to stand up against such violence and lawlessness. Desperate shopkeepers have been counter attacking the extortionists and beating them up. Suspected thugs were killed by the angry mobs in dlfh'renl pails ol (he country — it is a common sight to watch the shop owners parading the streets to vent their anger as we have seen more recently when a young businessman was killed in Ba-nani, Dhaka.
The hawkers and street vendors uprooted from their business in recent years also Joined the disenchanted shop owners — the anti-government frustrations of the small entrepreneurs are floating around. The opposition could tap Into the reservoir of resentment against the government. But the dissatisfied businessmen are not a monolithic group since there would surely oe some shop owners who will not tilt to the opposition. The recipients of patronage since 1996 would continue to support the ruling party. There is a common fear of the Santrashts (terrorists) among the shopkeepers irrespective of whom they voted for in 1996 — the associations of the shop owners don't hesitate to articulate their frustrations, but all the shopkeepers may not agree on the political background of those who terrorise them. Who are those San-tarshis? Generally speaking, they are perceived as the armed extortionists patronised by the influential people including some who are holding powerful positions. But in several areas, the shop owners have also blamed it on the goons allegedly supported by the opposition groups. Whether it's the government party or the opposi-
tion groups, it will not be a piece of cake to harness the shop Owners in Bangladesh for winning the future election. Yet. it's a new group dynamic that may swing electoral victory In the urban areas.
By no means a surprise, the class-based mobilization is unlikely to happen in the forthcoming election. Neither of the two biggest parties would have a complete hold on the noveau riche of Bangladesh — the rich folks in Bangladesh have already lined up for the two (or three) main parties. There are heavy concentrations of business people among the Bangladeshi lawmakers, and that trend is not likely to change. Put more bluntly, the Dhaka Club (or the Gulshan Club/the Chittagong Club) Is not solely committed to support Just one of the largest parties! Back In what was East Pakistan in the late 1960's, the Bengali business groups had almost universally sided with the AL— that is by no means the phenomenon at the dawn of the 21 st century.
The teachers, lawyers, labour unions and the intellectuals in general are the well known groups in politics — they are overwhelmingly locked along the party lines. Neither Hasina nor Khaleda will gain many new converts by preaching to those who are already converted to their respective political beliefs. The pro-BNP intellectual groups are more visible than before. Women's groups have already gained political clout in Bangladesh, and their presence would be felt even more in the future elections. There are strong women's supporters of Hasina and Khaleda. But neither of those two leaders can take the women support for granted. It will be a competitive race to win them, and women votes cannot be won solely by courting the existing women groups — the opposition will find it useful to organize women Into grievance-based groups. Violence against women (348
women were raped in the last six months, see D/Star July 2. 2000) has escalated recently — this is likely to become an impossible-to-lgnore issue in the next election (at least for women). The female organizations could be a plus or minus depending on whether they align or oppose the ruling party The victims of rapes and acid throwing (82 women fell victims to acid throwing during the last six months: Independent July 1,2000), mostly young females have drawn International attention and concerned women are stoking their frustrations and fear — they are organizing themselves as groups, and networking with the other women groups.
The deteriorating law and order situation ana galloping violence are the disturbing signs — they are the most widespread and desperate fears among ordinary citizens. Angry people are blaming the ruling party for its widely perceived failure in governance, and the AL ministers are on the defensive about it. The deaths from merciless public beating of the suspected offenders are on the rise (31 killed in public beatings in June: D/Star July 2. 2000). and the gruesome murder pictures make headlines in the morning newspapers. Worse still is the growing feeling that the suspected perpetrators of the despicable crimes were rarely apprehended, and punished With such depressing crime coverage in (he dally press, the ruling AL is faced with a p.r. meltclown. Indeed, for any party in power, burning disaffection Is a bad news — the opposition could rally the multitude of aggrieved Individuals and groups around the shaken public confidence. In many countries, the victims of violent crimes organize themselves, and demand appropriate redress from the government and the political parties — such dis-affcctcd groups are the catalysts in most democracies The BNP-led alliance has so far failed to
keep the spotlight on the law ano order deterioration but the cry against the lawlessness Is gaining momentum among groups and individuals, irre-sperHvc of political affiliations. But it Is not enough to Implicate (he "golden boys" of Ilir ministers and M.P s for (heir alleged criminal activities wiili impunity. So far, the opposition lias not found an operational vocabulary that would mobilize Hie disaffected against those who grossly abuse their privileges and positions. Most likely, the opposition will cash in on the rising anxieties about the perceived misgovernance, but the real victims are yet to be organized for political support during the election.
The opposition Is telling the nation that the unauthorized ballot papers and varying degrees of rigging may outweigh the genuine voting that would give a second term to the AL. but the determined groups could minimise such threats It Is true that the ruling party controls patronage that could be used against the opposition and even the caretaker government is unlikely to mitigate those fears. But the patronage distribution, either in the form of development work or individual favours among the loyalists also creates alienation against the party in power, and most Importantly, such frustration can be transformed Into votes more effectively by giving the unhappy a political voice. Individual disappointments, though numerous, are too fickle without effective networking and strengthening the organizational muscle.
Besides getting votes, the political. social and interest groups can make financial contributions to the parties that they respectively support. Voters pay more attention to the organised groups and the parties that they support. They can energise the campaign activities. and they can offer a greater visibility to the parties that they support. However, groups do not always sustain in Bangladesh, and arguably, the government could neutralise certain organised groups by making tactical concessions to their grievances. Nevertheless, even the short-lived group mobilisation can play a substantive role in the future elections.
The author teaches Political Science at Rowan Uniuersity. Glassboro. New Jersey. USA