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Economists see another half-yr of fast growth in Asia
TOKYO. July 4: US growth seems to be slowing and Interest rates in Japan appear set to rise, but Asia's economies can look forward to plain sailing for the rest of the year, says Reuters.
Booming exports, driven by undervalued currencies and a powerful global electronics cycle. strengthening domestic demand and a steady expansion in China all point to another half-year of fast growth for most of Asia, economists said today.
And some say there could be much more to come.
"The five-year outlook for Aslan economies, based on high savings and investment rates, and Increasingly efficient use of capital and labour. Is for sustained economic growth at nearly the rates averaged during the miracle years of 1960-95." William Overholt wrote In Nomura International's third-quarter economic outlook.
With Asia still In the early stages of recovery from Its debilitating 1997-98 currency crisis. Overholt said fears expressed in some quarters of a
"double-dip recession" induced by a hard landing in the United States were wide of the mark.
"Asia Is not headed for exceptional weakness or for a double dip. Of course, it will eventually revert to something closer to trend, but 'trend' for Asia means the fastest growth in the world." Hong Kong-based Overholt added.
Figures released so far this week near out the optimism.
— South Korean exports hit yet another record in June and were up 26.4 per cent in the first half of the year over a year earlier, with imports up 45.4 per cent.
— Malaysia's exports were up 19.2 per cent in the first five months, with Imports nearly 30 per cent higher — testifying, like Korea s figures, to strong domestic demand.
Singapore's purchasing managers Index rebounded in lune on the back of rising dec-ironies orders and exports.
In a June 23 Kp"i t | Javid Fernandez of JI* Morgan in Singapore forecast that seasonally adjusted growth in nonJapan Asia would slow sharply
to an annual 3.3 per cent rate in the second quarter, from 10.1 per cent in the first three months of the year.
Fernandez who expects a steady pair <>f six per cent
growth for the second half of the year, said Asia was at the sweet spot in the economic cycle. Growth is stiong yet there is little sign of a build-up in domestic inflationary pressures.