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The Two Koreas, the Summit and the Dilemma

by Ekram Kabir
FOR a long time, especially since the end of the cold war. North and South Koreas have kept the world guessing on their relationship. However, the announcement of first-ever summit meeting of the two Koreas, since the peninsula was divided in 1945. did not come as a surprise. But this historic meet of South Korean President and North Korean leader Kim Jong 11 in Pyongyang scheduled for June 12-14 this year may demonstrate some major changes and newer tensions in international politics.
Powers like Japan. US. China and Russia have welcomed the initiative, saying that If the summit Is actually held, it would be "epoch making". BBC's Caroline Gluck reports there are many difficult issues that need to be resolved between the two sides, "but the breakthrough is seen as a historic chance" to end the world's remaining legacies of the cold war. Indeed, these cold-war rivals are technically still at war after their three'-year bitter conflict in the 1950s ended in a truce. And so far the West Is concerned, it may only look forward to removing the remains of the cold war.
The schedule, however, is a resumption of a summit planned six years ago, in 1994 when Kim Jong H's father. Kim 11 Sung, was Io meet Klm Young Sam of the South But that never happened because of the sudden death of Kim II Sung Just I 7 days before the summit
Even long after Hie end of bipolarism In (he global power axis, concerns about North Ko-
rea. the last outpost of Stalinism. continue to persist. For example. South Korea. America and Japan met last month to coordinate policies regarding what to do about North Korea. They are all concerned about its missile production. Moreover, it is also believed that Pyongyang is working with Iraq to build a new ballistic missile plant in Sudan.
But in recent months, this secretive Stalinist state has begun to show signs of coining out of its diplomatic isolation, hi doing so. Pyongyang held a series of high-level talks with Tokyo and Washington. And. given the latest announcement, that seems to bear results.
Now. the question is: will the June summit herald an end to security and political turmoils related to North Korea?
Nobody is sure, say the Korea observers, and more events will unfold once the South Korean parliamentary elections are over and the two sides discuss the details of the summit later this month. While they do so, the timing of the announcement of the summit has not been received without scepticism among analysts. The decision for summit may seem like a fundamental shift in in-ter-Korean relations, but the timing and haste In which the decision was made suggest a different angle. A certain "dependence" between "government factions" In North Korea and the party of Kim Dae Jung In the South seemed obvious. The oppositions to this development in both the Koreas are also clear.
Since the announcement
came just days before general elections were due. on April 13. in South Korea. President Kim Dae Jung has been criticised to have taken advantage in showing that his North Korea policy is paying off. As a statement of South's opposition Grand National Party was quoted by the BBC: "No regime in history has turned to such a blunt and shameless trick to win an election."
However, the gloom did not last as the Grand National Party strengthened its position as the biggest party in parliament in last Thursday's general elections. And the Millennium Party of President Kim Dea Jung did win some extra support in some areas after the news of the historic summit with North Korea.
On the other side, it is t chance for North's Kim Jong to show that it is the South's policy that has worked and Pyongyang was not under duress while agreeing to hold the summit. Kim Jong 11 Is not without trouble as well. There are splits within the North Korean government on foreign policy issues that are likely to stir controversy in Pyongyang. For example, in 1998. as Klm Jong 11 took power. Pyongyang began to reduce Its diplomatic overseas staff by 30 per cent, until "food and economic problems" In the country were solved. At the same time, there were several (unconfirmed) reports in the western media that North Korea was under a near state of martial law following an attempted military coup. By the end of 1998 and into early 1999, North Korea had again reversed the course, seeking to
increase the number of diplomats stationed overseas.
North Korean officials, with reported deep links to the economic opening to the South, wished to see the Kim Dae Jung government remains intact, or they may lose their-power. Kim Dae Jung's own party has been relying on the apparent softening of North Koreas regime to retain Its mandate in the South. Pyongyang has repeatedly fought over Its diplomatic policy, particularly whether to remain isolated --and thus insulated -- from the rest of the world. This struggle may again be coming to a head, analysts expect, prompting the sudden announcement of the leader's meeting as a way to legitimise the role of those advocating economic ties in the face of the isolationists.
Now. does this "mutual dependency" indicate the collapse of North Korea? If so. then how would its neighbours and other powers react to that?
The collapse may start a huge refugee Influx across the borders into South Korea. Russia and China. And then, since the US maintains a military presence in the South, there could be a serious escalation of tension between China and the US. The emergence of a unified Korea would cause deep unease in Beijing.
It remains to be seen whether these powers are looking at this summit, as BBC's Caroline Gluck said, as a historic chance to end the world's remaining legacies of the cold war" or they want something more from It.