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Verdict Against Hindutva: Bihar’s BlowtoBJP

Praful Bidwai writes from New Delhi
***By vetoing the BJP’s sectarian agenda, the non-BJP parties have a lot to gain. If they succumb to the BJP—on Constitution review, saffron education, the Bomb, increased defence spending and right-wing economic policies, as in the Budget — they will get marginalised.***
IF I he BJP had thought it would exploit disenchant-niyn^ with “Jungle rt\j“ and romp to victory in alliance with . the Somata .and JDUJldn Bihar, while making handsome gulps in the Orissa and Haryana assemblies. it must feel disappointed. It could not even repeat its latest Lok Sabha performance in die three states.
The Bihar verdict may mark a turning point, signifying the BJP's further decline and growing divergences within the NDA.
There was a vole swing of nearly 10 percent against the NDA in Bihar. This halved its seat-winning performance within lour months, hi Orissa and Haryana. the BJP has become a mere junior — and dispensable — partner of its allies. In Orissa, it did poorly despite an incredibly favourable arithmetic and the Congress's appalling performance and mishandling ol the cyclone al termath.
The NDA ran a charged campaign in all three stales, roping in high-profile slars and Central ministers, including ils supposed trump card. Mr Vaj-
payee. But the card failed.
In Bihar, the failure was especially glaring. Mr Laloo Yadav. tainted by misgovernance and the fodder scam, and without allies. was clearly vulnera hie. By contract, the BJP with its upper-caste base, the Samata with its Kurmis. aiid the JDIU) with ils Dalits and Yadavs, made a formidable coalition.
The NDA seemed all set to win the anti-Laloo war it I.a inched two years ago. Its hope <>l dislodging him. if not through President's rule, then by the ballot, was reinforced by numerous polls which gave RJD (iO seals.
But Mr Yadav bounced back with 123 seats. The NDA offered no alternative to "jungle raj'. Mr. Yadav not only managed to
retain his 26 to 28 per cent vole base: he even gained support Irom a section of Dalits, led up with Mr Ram Bilas Paswan's capitulation to Hindutua.
The NDA paid the price in Bihar lor the BJP's Hindutua. The Muslim masses punished it lor supporting the BJP's agenda to saffronise education and review the Constitution. Muslims chose the secular but corrupt RJD. voting against the communal. and only slightly less corrupt. NDA.
Another factor worked in Laloo's favour. This was backing from the "most backward classes ' (MBCs) who felt he has given them a voice, although little by way of development. An estimated 60 percent of the Dalit-MBC vote went to the RID.
Here is the verdict s true significance. The BJP regarded Bihar as the last bastion of "Mandalism" or OBC politics of self-respect. It lervently hoped Io lay Mandal to rest, and thus gain long-term dominance in the Gangetic plains. That hope took a beating in Uttar Pradesh three months ago with the expulsion of Mr Kalyan Singh and breaking up of the BJP's OBC base. Today, it stands all but dashed.
Mandal has not run out of steam—certainly not in the backward hinterlands of U.P. and Bihar, where there are no roads, where schools and health centres rarely work, caste discrimination is rampant. and social mobility nonexistent. Low-caste self-assertion is all-important there.
The BJP nurtured yet another hope: of marginalising its regional allies. The party pays lip-service to coalition politics. Bui it is ideologically uncomfortable with it. It has a strong national identity based on homogeneity and uniformity. That identity is a Hindutua trade-mark: “one nation, one people, one race". The latest verdict is a strong rebuff to it.
An even greater rebuff would be (he formation of an RJD-led
government in Patna, which the NDA is desperately trying to prevent by playing the dissident" Nitish Kumar card. The situation is fluid but favours the RJD. The CPI-CPI (ML) see the RJD as a hostile force. Three hundred of their supporters were massacred under its rule. They cannot easily
But even less can support the NDA. Both Constitutional practice and numbers favour the RJD combine. The Governor will have to invite the RJD-CPM front (with 125 seats) if the Congress (23) agrees to back it.
The Congress has limited op-tions. It too performed poorly in the elections. Now it has no choice but to temper its ambitions and forget re-creating the glory ol one-parly dominance.
The Congress too needs coalitions. Above all. it needs a well-focused strategy based cen-irally on principled opposition to Hindutua. The Congress has taken on the RSS. This is welcome. It must now. logically, keep (he NDA out of power in Bihar.
The NDA has emerged with changed internal power balances. Its non-BJP components have gained in political weight. In recent weeks, they vetoed the
raising of food and petroleum prices. They also oppose Gujarat's decision on the R§S. These "secular" allies could be-cpme more assertive.
At the same time, internal differences within the BJP are likely to sharpen. Mr L.K. Advani and Mr K.N. Govin-dacharya will come under attack from party rivals for the Bihar fiasco. Mr Govin-dacharya says the BJP will emphasise its "distinct (read, communal) identity". Such views are bound to be opposed internally.
This too lavours the NDAs "secular parlies. They can prove they are self-respecting political partners, not poodles, to use Mr Jaipal Reddy's phrase. They must recognise that public opinion is turning against hardcore Hindutua.
February 25 saw an impressive mobilisation of the intelligentsia against the saffronisa-tion of education. More than 2.(100 leading scholars demon s'.iaied in the Capital—I lie biggest such mobilisation since the Babri demolition.
By vetoing the BJP's sectarian agenda, the non-BJP parties have a lot Io gain. If they succumb to (he BJP—on Constitution review, .saffron education. thc0Bomb. increased defence spending mid right-wing economic policies, as in the Budget — they will gel marginalised.
The BJP is a hegemonic party which preys upon its xirtners — as with the Ram Raya Parishad in the past, and he Janata Dal in Gujarat re-enllv Its NDA allies have a ample choice: Resist or Perish.