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Taiwan: China's Next Bet?

by A S M Nurunnabi
***Beijing may start seeing time as be' ng on its side, a shift from the sense it had in 1995 and 1996, when it carried out missile exercises near Taiwan to protest Lee's trip in 1995 to the United States. "As the economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan continue to increase, that is seen as a favourable factor," as a knowledgeable observer commented.8**
BEIJING'S most cherished reunification goal is Taiwan. Chinese Presideni Jiang Zemin had insisted in his earlier Macau handover speech that the earlier examples of Hong Kong and Macau will give a positive push to the early settlement of the Taiwan question." However, the path to reunification is. to put it mildly, clouded.
Beijing's policy-makers are focused on trying to deter Taiwan from formalising Its separation from the mainland — a separation that has existed for most of the 20th century. The mainland effort took on a new urgency since Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui outraged Beijing last year by describing Taiwan as having "special slate-to-state relations" with mainland China.
Taiwan's March 18 election for a new president could provide an opening for an improvement in strained ties between Beijing and Taipei. But mainland - based Taiwan* watchers fear that the opening could be short-lived if Lee tries to make the "state-to-state" policy official after the election but before he leaves office in May. It isn't clear, moreover, whether Beijing will find Lee's successor any easier to work with than himself. Analysts outside the mainland suggest Beijing would serve its interests better if it focused less on deterring Taiwan from gaining independence, and more on persuading Taiwan of the benefits of unification.
The "two states" formula is. from Beijing's perspective, the most serious roadblock on the way to unification. According to a Chinese expert in Taiwan affairs, "it is a very touchy and explosive issue. "It was noted by him that all negotiations between the mainland and Taiwan in the past had been premised on the idea that both sides accepted the concept of there being Just one China. The two sides, however, didn't agree on what that one China" was. and the ambiguity continued.
Mainland leaders have repeatedly told Taiwan that China reserves the right to use force to recover the island if the two-states theory isn't shelved. With the Taiwan election looming. the mainland is said to have shifted now away from daily denunciation of Lee. A keen observer ol the current situation has said. "My sense is that China wants to get peacefully through the election, take a bit of time to digest the results, and then come out with a policy Initiative or a policy adjustment."
But mainland scholars are reportedly bracing for trouble In the period after the election and betore Lee leaves office. According to the director of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations Studies, a government think-tank in Beijing. the Taiwanese President Lee may attempt in those two months to make his "two-states" formula the official Taiwanese policy. That way. no matter who comes to power, it will be very difficult to change the policy. Such a move may cause another crisis.
China watchers in Taipei dismiss such mainland concerns as another attempt to demonize Lee. "Whatever we do Beijing can define it as provocative." said a Taiwan presidential staff member. "It’s their definition that always seems to count."
Beijing may start seeing time as being on its side, a shift from the sense it had in 1995 and 1996, when it carried out missile exercises near Taiwan to protest Lee's trip in 1995 to the United States. "As the economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan continue to increase, that is seen as a favourable factor." as a knowledgeable observer commented.
It may be recalled that on the occasion of his previous visit to China. US President Bill Clinton had pleased the Chinese by publicly endorsing the Three Nos" in US relations with Taiwan: no recognition of "two Chinas". "One China arid one Taiwan" and no support for Taiwan's membership in the United Nations or other organ* zations of sovereign states. That policy statement of the US President was a matter of encouragement to China in pursuing |he ultimate goal pf reunification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland. In this context, it may be kept in mind that China has always regarded Taiwan as a renegade province.
Only two of Taiwan's top three presidential candidates would probably improve rela-
lions with China, one of the most infiuential forces In the upc oming presidential election. Soil Ileal analysts have said. Of ie main candidates in the tight three-way race Beijing would probably want to deal with Nationalist Vice-President Lien Chan or Independent James Soong, said the analysts. Relations could improve, they added, if either of these two were elected. Beijing, which probably won't endorse a can dldate. would favour the two because they arc both moderate and don't nave a record for supporting independence. The same can't be said for Chen Shui Bian. the nominee lor the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
Most polls say either Soong or Chen is leading with Lien close behind. All three candidates. however, favour finding ways to ease restrictions on investing in the mainland and to end Taiwan's ban on direct shipping and air links with the mainland.
Many American observers worry that Taiwan s incumbent president Lee could draw the US into a conflict with China. The timing could hardly have been worse." said the head of China studies at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. The US has been committed to the one China policy for well over 50 years. The danger is that the US could incrementally get sucked into a conflict.
In this context, it may be noted that mainland analysts are largely united in believing that a peaceful reunification is best achieved from a position of military strength On this point, some observers point out that "in militarizing the conflict with Taiwan. China increases the danger of the US getting involved, and involved in a military sense.
US politicians are watching China's military posturing towards Taiwan far more closely now than in the past. What China sees as rational effort to increase pressure on Taiwan to coine to the bargaining table, some people in the US see it as an aggressive, threatening act. not just demonstrating Chinese hostile intentions towards Taiwan, but also may be saying that China is a threat to regional security.