***,.,The highest ever increase in India’s defence budget is indeed indicative of unabated arms race with its debilitating impact on the overall South Asian scenario, fears Mansoor Mamoon***

THE US President Bill Clinton will certainly feel frustrated. One of the main reasons for his ensuing safari to South Asia, as he had earlier explained, was to use his Influence and his country's clout to restrain both India and Pakistan from their frenzy of rushing to their Armageddon as well as to bring them to a stage of negotiated settlement centring the Issue of their half-a-century old dispute over Kashmir.

Clinton had described the current scenario in South Asia as almost akin to the a dangerous flash point because of un abated chauvinism and jingo ism being equally displayed by these two countries. It portends greater danger as both the countries are armed with nuclear capability and threatening to go to the extreme of retaliating with nuclear weapons against each other. After initial hesitation President Clinton has almost decided to make a brief stopover in Lahore despite Indian lobby's intense pressure and hectic publicity that this will tantamount to accord recognition to the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf and in the words of Delhi a 'terrorist state ".

Only weeks before Clinton is to undertake his much-publicised trip to India the BJP -led government in Delhi announced its annual budget which clearly goes against the spirit of the US administration policy vis-a-vis South Asia, at least at its face value. The new Indian budget for the fiscal 2000-2001 stipulates an increase of twenty-live to twenty-eight per cent increase in defence spending over that of the last year. This is highest increase for defence in a year and it came as no surprise io India watchers.

Announcing the new fiscal measures in the lower house of parliament - the Loksobha - on February 29 Finance Minister Jashwant Singh strongly defended his government's stand on beefing up his country's defence capability. He said the government is determined to do everything possible to strengthen the country's defence potential and to safeguard the security of every inch of the soil. The kargil encounter in May last year. Singh said, has came as an eve-opener for India. It provided the wake-up call thu Pakistan could no longer be dismissed as no major irri-tant to its security.

Quoting from the Subra-manyalam Commission Report which probed into the circumstances leading to India's being caught unaware in Kargil by Pakistan's offensive, the Finance Minister said Intelligence network would need to be strengthened and a balance of power will have to maintained so that Pakistan is effect! 'ely deterred from future “adventurism". The staggering amount of Increase in defence

spending is likely to push the government's fiscal deficit to the tune of one lac eleven thousand crore (1.11000) rupees, the highest so far In the history of independent India.

It will obviously give rise to inflationary tendencies. The president of the Associated Chambers Anjan Roy wondered how the government will be able to tackle this huge deficit. Retired General Ashok Mehta is however all praise for what he described as the governments realistic approach to defence spending . He said ’his Is for the first time that a government in India has made allocation to defence sector at a certain ratio of the country's GDP. Economist and a front ranking leader of Trinomul Congress, an alliance partner in the Centre Dr Nitish Sen Gupta admitted that fiscal deficit would pose to be a big problem but he asserted that In view of Pakistan's war-rnongering and incitement of terrorists' Incursions there was no choice before India. He

said attempts would be made through a measure of austerity and resource mobilisation to meet the crunch.

On the question of a highly sensitive Issue like defence the major parties usually do not come up with strong criticism for fear of being branded as soft towards Pakistan . The Initial reactions of both the Congress(l) and the CMPI(M) appeared muffled. Most vociferous were the Naxalites. Two Naxal spinier groups together held an instant rally in Calcutta on the day the budget was announced claiming that It was done at the behest and diktat of the Imperialists and their organs like the World Bank. The new budget, they said. Is antipeople and has totally ignored the interests of the poorer sec tions. who will b” hard hit by further price spiral.

When the teeming millions in India are languishing In ab tect poverty and are deprived of >asic necessities of life, it is no doubt a crime to divert the

money towards defence spending. said veteran Naxal leader Kanu Sanyal. He said very soon the Naxalites would build up a strong movement all over India to protest against the reactionary budget.

The BJP has emerged stronger in. the recently held state elections particularly in Orissa and Bihar The Congress has been' totally routed and is currently licking the wounds of its continuous poor performance.The CPI(M) could not also fare well in Bihar where Its strength has come down to only two from six In the past legislature. In West Bengal. however, the CPI(M) registered two surprised victories winning over from Trlnomool and the Congress. For Momota Bondapadhya. the central Railway Minister and the Trinomool Chief, who set her eyes on the Chief Ministership of West Bengal hoping to unseat the CPI(M) led left front government in the state elections scheduled for March next year, has reasons to

be concerned. The sailing in the fray is not going to be as easy as she and her supporters contemplate .

Taking the state elections as a clear indication of people's renewed confidence in the BJP. the government of Prime Minister Vajpayee will be tempted to take a more war-like posture against Pakistan and fan up Hindu nationalism. The erosion in the popularity of the secular forces and their failure to unite or enter into electoral alliances have further lifted the spirit of the BJP.

How Pakistan Is going to take India s unprecedented defence increase? Islamabad is also equally likely to gear up its war machine and go for increased allocation for defence. Consequently, arms race In South Asia is almost certain to assume further Intense form to the detriment of peace and stability in the region. Pakistan has been persistently calling for negotiation, for a summit level meeting between the leaders of the two countries. But India has brushed aside all such propositions with contempt. It would not even allow the SAARC to hold it regular summit presumably for avoiding a meeting with Genera) Pervez Musharraf .

CPI(M) leader and Loksobha Member Biplob Das Gupta opposing the defence increase in the budget suggested that the government should have instead prioritise diplomacy for ending the possibility of war with Pakistan. Citing the examples of European Union and the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) he called for activating SAARC and through It to economically integrate all the South Asian nations which alone can act as an antidote to confrontation with Pakistan. In fact. SAARC was designed to meet this objective and in fact made progress towards that end through such programmes like SAPTA. SAARC. Fund for Development and collective approach aimed at poverty alleviation. But the Kargil encounter between Pakistan and India and the subsequent army takeover in Islamabad coupled with deterioration of relation between the two countries following the skyjack of an Air Indian plane have pushed the SAARC into limbo.

In such a boiling situation, a situation of cold war and verbal dual between the two traditional enemies how far President Clinton's much-vaunted visit will be able to bring abouL a thaw and melting of the ice’ has evidently become doubtful. Highest ever increase in India s budget spending on defence Is indeed indicative of unabated arms race with its debilitating impact on the overall South Asian scenario with no sign of silver linings in the dark clouds that is hovering over the horizon of the region.