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News Analysis

Indian polls results: BJP also hasn’t much to cheer about

From Pallab Bhattacharya
NEW DELHI. Mar 1: The results of recent assembly elections in the four Indian states of Bihar. Orissa. Haryana and Manipur have once again brought to fore the importance of regional parties ana the rationale behind ruling BJP’s compulsion for coalition politics in a pluralistic social order.
Fresh elections in the four states were seen as the first major lest of popularity for Prime Minister Alai Bihari Vajpayees National Democratic Alliance (NDA) since coming to power four months back.
With all results out. the NDA Is set to form governments in Orissa ending two decades of Congress rule and In Haryana where the alliance retain power. The NDA secured absolute majority in both the states.
The biggest surprise sprung by the elections is the performance of Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) which rules Bihar. The RJD proved the pollsters wrong and
emerged as lhe single largest parly with 124 seals in the 324 member Bihar assembly in a remarkable fight back against the combined challenge of NDA which secured 123 seats, throwing up a fractured electoral verdict.
The hung assembly in Bihar has ensured a key role for small stale-based parties and 19 independents and set off fresh political alignments.
Already, the Congress, which fought polls in Bihar on anti RJD plank, has indicated it is not averse to supporting Laloo Yadev's party in order lo keep BJP out of power in I he state.
The Congress' biggest setback was in Orissa where BJP's regional ally Biju Janata Dal led by Federal Minister Naveen Patnaik romped home victorious The Congress finished a p.HH iIiikI behind BJP
The Congress leadership, of course chose to publicly put on an optimistic face contending the parly has doubled Its share
number of seats in Bihar and substantially increased its tally in Haryana.
The loss in Orissa is particularly worrisome for Congress president Sonia Gandhi who had changed party Chief Minister in the state thrice in 1999 lo cope with sharp factionalism in ihe parly there. The decision, no doubt proved cosily for Congress a tact admitted by senior party leader Pranab Mukherjee.
The Congress performance In assembly polls in Orissa. Haryana and Bihar, coming af ter the party's worst electoral defeat in the general elections lour months back. Is likely lo give fresh ammunitions to detractors of Sonia Gandhi In Ihe party.
But there is no threat lo her leadership for the simple reasons that there Is no alternative and her critics in the party are divided into groups opposed to each other, political observers said. If the mood in Congress camp is not upbeat, there is not much to cheer about in the BJP camp also. True, the NDA managed to wrest power in Orissa and retain it in Haryana, the inescapable message is that it is BJP's allies BJD and Indian National Lok Dal (1NLD) which won the battle single-handedly for NDA in Orissa and Haryana respectively.
The results haw* reduced BJP to second fiddles to its allies in Orissa and Haryana. The BJP suffered major reverses in Haryana because its number of seats went down by almost half compared to previous polls in 1996 and three of its senior leaders in the state had been defeated.
In Bihar, the BJP. disappointed by its performance as well as that of its allies Samata Party and JD(U). pulled itself out of the race for Chief Ministership in spite of emerging as the lead partner of NDA.
There is recognition in NDA that bitter tussle among the constituents over seat-sharing just prior to the elections did not send the right signal to the voters and affected their per formance in Bihar.
There is speculation thai the assembly elections results will have bearing on ties between BJP and its allies at the centre with the possibility of the latter becoming more vocal after their impressive show in the states.
Some senior BJP leaders have already said the 1NLD had a hand in ensuring BJP's defeat in at least 16 constituencies in Haryana, a charge denied bv INLD president Om Prakash Chau (ala.
By contrast. Laloo Prasad .Yadav has displayed remarkable resilience to survive the odds and stave off the onslaught not only from NDA but also from his one-time allies like CPI. CPI (ML) and Samalwadi Party which had deserted him ahead of the polls.
Laloo Yadav has no doubt been helped by bickerings within the NDA over seat-sharing before the elections and the presence of a fair number of rebel candidates of NDA con stituent parties In the fray who were denied nominations.
* But more than that. Yadav seemed to have succeeded in can1ng»out for himself the image of a ’martyr'- hounded by most of h^ political rivals who (hemselves are far from fully united
Besides, the opponents have failed to make much dent in KLaloo Yadav’s personal Image as a champion of the downtrodden and the backward classes and castes, indicating that political realignments nave not had major impact on the caste equations in Bihar that have helped his rule for a decade.