Although Mr. Vajpayee stated that he did not see the postponement of the SAARC summit as a blow to the regional organisation, but the postponement is seen by many to harm the regional body's future activities enormously. Yet the 'goodwill,1 'cultural' and 'social' confidence-building measures remain South Asia's only hope.

THE Daily Star columnist Zaglul A. Chowdhury raises some interesting points as far as South Asian peace is concerned In his latest though-provoking piece Confidence-building Measures in South Asia are Difficult on January 30. 2000. He opines that confidence-building measures (CBMs) can work when effective and greater push are given at the bilateral and multilateral levels in the ambience of the SAARC. And also "CBMs are difficult in the region in some ways, both politically and otherwise. but not impossible and beyond reach".

Now one would like to think so and believe accordingly. But is this opinion, optimistic of course, holds true in the conflict-ridden context of South Asia? If we look at the prevailing atmosphere we would certainly reiterate that CBMs are needed to be enforced now in this region more than ever, nevertheless the cynics' perceptions may be negative. But can we really blame the sceptics? Mr. Chowdhury however argues that greater political will is necessary for this. And he surely has spoken the mind of more than one billion people. Looking for a silver lining, he questions whether CBMs are possible in lhe present situation. Indeed, they may not be in certain instances.

Given the global reality, the small countries of South Asia would like to see their glasses half full, but India and Pakistan. who occupy the powerful places in regional politics, look at theirs as half empty. And truly so. when it is seen in the backdrop of their relationship, a sense of hopelessness takes over the whole region. If it is important to have visionary leaders to ensure the success of CBMs: if CBMs are bound to fail without a clear political resolve and commitment, then leaders of these two major powers. India and Pakistan, point to the fact that confidence-building In the region is not only dif- ficult but may also be beyond

Why? Because the political will needed to reduce acrimonious tension between India and Pakistan Is inadequate. Without political will, peace cannot be ensured, and even the implementation of acceptable confidence-building measures will not guarantee unruffled atmosphere. But if there is a minimum desire to avoid conflict. past experience of CBMs show several paths that might take the disputing nations there, no matter how painfully lengthy they may be. Llaquat-Nehru Pact in 1951. Indus Water Treaty in 1960, Tashkhent Agreement in 1966 and Shimla Accord in 1972 are few memorable examples. Again recently, both India and Sri Lanka were able to secure agreement on stateless people in 1964: the Ganges water dispute, the main irritant between India and Bangladesh, has been amicably resolved in 1996.

There certainly are more like these. But more recently, when at a time, the two most combative countries are expected to show resilience and implement some conflict reduction measures. discord between them is on a dangerous rise, resulting in regional disharmony.

Earlier this month, when tensions rose to new heights along the line of control in Kashmir. Indo-Pak relationship also took newer dimension of animosity. In war of words, in one hand, the Pakistani military ruler General Parvez Musharraf has said that India would be taught a 'lesson' if It tried to cross the line of control, but he did not want to throw a challenge' to India. And on the other hand. Indian premier Atal Be- hart Vajpayee described Pakistan as an enemy country' and said New Delhi was ready for war If necessary.

This situation proves all the elements of uncertainty as far as starting a Lahore-type new dialogue — an excellent form of confidence-building — between heads of state of these two countries. For his own sake. Pakistan's Chief Executive Parvez Musharraf however eagerly wants to resume the dialogue as he said: "I am not saying that we need to immediately resolve Kashmir. I am saying that we start a dialogue, and simultaneously, let's discuss everything else '.

But his Indian counterpart Atal Beharl Vajpayee seems settled on the point that India would not talk to a military ruler. As Indian Prime Minister said before the Commonwealth heads of state in Durban — and after he refused to join the SAARC summit in Kathmandu — that Pakistan must first take steps to restore confidence before New Delhi and Islamabad can start talking again. Vajpayee said even before the mili-taiy coup in Pakistan, India had made it clear that Pakistan must stop trans-border terrorism and end Its hostile propaganda against India. Pakistan also has to demonstrate its commitment to the Shimla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration. Indeed, history was made in Lahore when a beaming Vajpayee descended from the bus as the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was waiting anxiously to greet his counterpart In the historic city.

So. in this circumstance, the possibility of earlier ascertained military CBMs. like a direct communication link between Director Generals of Military Operations and a 'Hotline' between the prime ministers, looks bleak.

Likewise, the importance of dcmocratlsation process is very high for successfully implementing the measures for confidence building. Almost every country in South Asia is faced with the challenge of democracy. And Pakistan, in this post-cold war era. has entered an important phase of Its history. The country has Its ninth f’overnment In eleven years — our elected governments, four caretaker setups and now the military regime with a "civilian front". No civilian government has been allowed to complete its five-year tenure in office. It is indeed a disturbing record both for Pakistani people and people of i he region as well. Since CBMs are expected to work better between democracies. and since Pakistan, for now. is ruled by a military government. the head of which is believed to have led Pakistan's Kargil operation against India, it is less likely that confidencebuilding will work between these countries.

Then, observing the region torn between security dilemmas. one hopes — as does the DS columnist — that SAARC itself may work as one of the best possible confidence-building forums in South Asia. Now. question arises: What would the region do with an organisation which fails to hold its regular summits? And again, as a lateral forum, what else SAARC is doing better except enhancing trade relations among the member-states? Will there be any lack of Initiatives as far as trade and commerce are ccn-cerned? Not really, because economic activity-based global reality would have necessitated every nation to proceed with increased trade relations among themselves even if there wasn't any organisation. Now. as a bloc, SAARC provides a better chance — not an unalloyed pledge — to socialise and to do business. The Colombo summit was able to focus on the increased economic activities in the region. Discussions were held on the mechanism of turning the region into a free trade area by 2001. Political differences notwithstanding, all the countries have promised to work together to increase economic activities in the region. The key is to bring about a common market in the region within a framework of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) that removes the barriers among the member-countries.

The question is: how?

This may sound pessimistic when one holds the view that there are a number of impediments to this development. The region is asymmetrical. The territory and population of India is larger than the territories and populations of the other six countries. India naturally wishes to dominate the region to which Pakistan does not agree. There is a view that India has been unable to instill trust and confidence In its neighbours of the region. With another slide In Indo-Pak relationship and the political climate worsened, opportunities for trade may also fall flat. Although Mr. Vajpayee stated that he did not see the postponement of the SAARC summit as a blow to the regional organisation, but the postponement Is seen by many to harm the regional body's future activities enormously. Yet the 'goodwill.' cultural' and 'social' confidence-building measures remain South Asia's only hope.