***Is Chechnya strictly an internal affair of the Russian federation? Why exactly is the present bloodshed, and when is this likely to end? Why has this offensive begun and will President Yeltsin and his Prime Minister Vladimir Putin emerge stronger from it?***

RUSSIAN offensive against Chechnya is currently one of the major international Intensety-debsrted topics. In one sense, it is not an international issue as the matter is in princi-file an internal affair of Russian eclerMtlont Russfan'ltAdeFs, including President Boris Yeltsin, insist that discussions or ‘unwarranted" comments and concerns on the present Russian actions in its "own republic" constitutes interference in the internal affairs of their country. At the just-concluded strategically-timed summit with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Beijing, president Yeltsin and the Chinese leader agreed that "Chechnya" is an Internal matter of Russia.

President Yeltsin was des-Kerate to secure support on ussian crackdown from some quarters when Moscow has gone all-out against its recalcitrant region and threatened the civilian population in Chechen capital Grozny to quit the city within a specific time or face the onslaught of the Russian armed forces. Grozny is already bearing the brunt of Russian airforce and artillery bombings for last several weeks after Moscow began the offensive nearly two months ago. Russian forces slowly advanced to the capital from different directions as civilians were killed by Russian offensive while many others fled to neighbouring areas as refugees. As world outrage over the brutal campaign to bring Chechnya to heels intensified, a top Russian General vowed to blast Grozny to shreds before sending his troops to take the city. Eighty per cent ofthe capital is partially destroyed and now it is matter of time before the Russian army formally takes it over; and it will be folly to expect that the Chechen fighters would be able to withstand it.

The developments in the next few days in the Chechen front are unlikely to be anything unexpected and taking over of Grozny could also be a kind of cakewalk as the Chechen fighters may choose to retreat totally for a long-term Guerrilla-type war. But the scars of present Russian offensive will be hard to die and the problem is likely to remain as a major headache for Moscow.

Is the Chechnya tangle strictly an internal affair of the Russian federation? Do the developments there warrant concerns of the peace-loving nations and whether such anxieties represent interference in the internal affairs of the Russian federation? Why is exactly the present bloodshed and when is this likely to end? And finally, why has this offensive begun and will President Yeltsin and his Prime Minister Vladimir Putin emerge stronger from it? These are some of the pertinent questions that surround the Chechnya imbroglio.

Certainly, it is not as simple as the internal affair of a country for obvious reasons. The issue hogged headlines in the international press a few years ago when the same President Boris Yeltsin had sent troops to silence the revolt in the republic

but called off the soldiers after bitter fighting for a long period. After that. Chechnya was given a kind of self-rule short of direct independence. The valour and,r$si9tqqc$ qf. the republic and itp the tpen leader ,Zuk|]or Dudayeb is well known. As such, the affair of Chechnya is not just like another republic or province of Russia or any country-

President Yeltsin warded off attempts to impeach him by the opposition in the lower house of parliament. Duma, led by communists in May last. Five charges of Impeachment were brought against him and all fell through. But the charge that received maximum votes was for launching the Chechnya war in 1994 and it received 283 votes whereas 300 votes were necessary for initiating the impeachment. It is evident that even in his own country the dealings with Chechnya had drawn severe adverse reactions.

However, this time he launched the crackdown after a series of bombings in Moscow and other places that left many people killed and the government blamed the Chechen "terrorists" for the violence. Earlier, these people briefly occupied parts of Dagestan republic, and Moscow accused the "terrorists" from Chechnya from the same. True, the Russian government has every right to take actions against the people that it considers lawbreakers and responsible for terrorism. It Is also plausible that any government worth its name will take a hard-

line attitude on the matter. But is the current war-like measures stem from solely such reasons? In their bld to silence terrorism, there may be other factors.

President Yeltsin is not. however, qualified constitutionally to contest in the coming presidential elections and he has picked up new prime minister Vladimir for the presidency. Yeltsin wants to remain in the scene despite his failing health — and he can only achieve this goal if his political heir Putin wins the elections. But the president picked up prime ministers whimsically in the past, and abruptly sacked them. Putin is the latest and Yeltsin is keen to see that he earns popularity and stability that helps him to become the President.

The offensive against the Chechens has given him that advantage since actions against the "terrorists", particularly in the aftermath of the killing of people in the bombings in Moscow buildings, have given the impression that Putin is a tough leader. Secondly, Moscow bore grudge against Chechnya after the failure to achieve its goal during 1994-96 offensive. And this time it wants to fulfil that. The government wants to be seen as dynamic and action-oriented. and using the Chechnya issue to gain popularity it has succeeded to a great extent.

In mid-1971. President Pod-

gorny of former Soviet Union had declared that the atrocities in the "erstwhile East Pakistan" was not Internab affairs of Pakistan.- This .yas 'the first conqerqnp.tipn by>a superpower of t,l?e activities by Is^rqaljad, iq, Bangladesh. The former communist giant, the other superpower at that time, had voiced concern at the genocide and this had helped the Bangladesh war to gain momentum at the international level. This act was also right if morally Judged. Later prime minister Kogygin took it to other forums. Why should, then, the Chechnya developments are internal affairs of Russia even though two cases are not entirely same? Certainly. there are common factors in both the situations. Yeltsin is the first democratically elected president of present Russian federation. He was supported and propped up by the West ending the socialist era of the great nation. Despite democracy. Russia is now facing many problems and the West is supporting it in many ways including huge IMF loans.

When President Yeltsin walked out of the European security summit in Istanbul last month in the wake of criticisms by the West on Chechnya offensive. President Clinton and other leaders were not tough with him because the former has been receiving their support in spite of differences on some matters. President Clinton spoke of Moscow paying seriously for ruthlessness against Chechen people although Russia has the right to curb terrorism but he and other western leaders' response here fell short of what they did in similar situations of annihilating civilian population elsewhere in recent time. Yeltsin warned Clinton against seeking to interfere in Chechnya, saying his country still possessed nuclear arms. By this, he wants to whip up nationalistic feelings in Russia aimed at the presidential elections even though today's Russia is much dependent on the West and mired in manifold economic and other problems.

The Russian president also chose to visit China. He and President Zemin signed accords on their border issues and rejected West's use of human rights as interference in the internal affairs of a country. Clearly, democratic Yeltsin, who is otherwise vocal about human rights, conceded this to communist China in exchange of support in the offensive Chechnya which he needed badly. It is also debatable whether the UN or the O1C are doing enough in the Chechnya tangle.

But the voice of peace-loving people against the atrocities on the civilian population is loud although many cannot approve terrorism. The 1999 Nobel Peace prize winner. Medicin Sans Frontleres. and many others are appealing to end to Russian offensive and ruthlessness. But the crackdown down continues. Will Chechnya bleed till turning white?