***How could they clinch such a resounding victory? What are the reasons that the Congress fared so badly? And, where does the secular and progressive third force stand now?***

FOR the first time since 1984. the Indian electorate has given the verdict in favour of a party or an alliance in a genera] election. The development is particularly significant, as a spectre of instability has been haunting India for several years, since no party or combine could win a resounding victory In the polls. This situation caused shortlived governments. In the absence of an absolute majority, parties or groups cobbled together in the wake of the "hung parliament" after the votes ana somehow succeed to form a government, which in most cases proved disastrous. Political expediencies of the divergent forces seldom last long and the logical corollary to this undesirable condition is the collapse of the government, leading to midterm elections.

At times, the tenure of the governments is ridiculously short ee Atal Blharl Vajpayee-led BJP government was in office for 13 days following the 1996 polls. The government that had succeeded was that of a "third force" led by the Janata Dal but it also had to rely on the outside support of Congress which twice pulled the rug from below the H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral governments triggering their fall.

After 1998 elections, the BJP again came to power, but Prime Minister Vajpayee had a real tough time in maintaining the cohesion of the coalition and finally had to bow to an unpredictable ally from the south Ms. Jayaram Jayalalitha who called off her critical support. Obviously, new elections were announced, as the opposition also failed to come forward with an alternative govern-

ment. But the million-dollar question was then whether the voters will this time give a decisive mandate so that a party or coalition could rule with comfort and complete its five-year term, or again instability? How long can India afford such fluid political situation? The electorate must swing either way in the broadly bipolar system that has of late emerged as a pattern in the Indian politics as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Congress-led opposition.

The third force of centrist and leftists would never ally with the NDA. They may do the same with the Congress, if necessary. but would prefer to remain aloof from both. Its preference for the Congress is for the reason that it is a secular political organisation.

The NDA victory was anticipated but uncertainty existed whether it could come out with a comfortable majority. The latest assessments by most as and also in this column as just before vote-counting began was that it would scrape tnrough with a bare majority in the 543-member house in gaining the right to form a new government. The magic number is 273 which is the minimum for an absolute majority and the NDA was projected to have something between 280 and 285. Earlier it was thought that it would reach the 300 figures. The downward assessment was attributed to late swing by main opposition, Congress, in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh where it has finally done well.

But the NDA has won 296 of the 537 seats. Voting did not take place in some areas due to severe flooding. As such, the BJP-led NDA has lived up to the best prediction. This has even a pleasant surprise for its leaders whose gleeful mood was so apparent that they shared sweets among themselves.

How could they extract such a resounding victory? What are the reasons that the Congress fared so badly? And. where does the secular and progressive third force stand now?

NDA and its main constituent BJP rode a crest of popularity for several factors.

First, its 13-month performance might not have been a success story, but it was not lacklustre either. Short after coming to power in March 1998, it went exploding several nuclear devices. This move was looked at as a national achievement by most Indians. But Prime Minister Vajpayee also, moderately, made peace overtures with arch-rival Pakistan by historic bus trip to Lahore that projected nim as someone earning for peace In tension-ridden south Asia.

Then again, when the "Kargil" issue cropped up. his interim government tackled the

situation well by avoiding a direct war with Pakistan which would have increased the chances of nuclear conflict, by driving out the Pakistan-backed insurgents from Indian side of line of control.

The hard-liners within BJP were favouring a tougher line on the crisis and also on certain matters relating to sensitive religious issues. Mr. Vajpayee and other liberals maintained their dominance and some other partner organisations of the coalition, wnich believe in secularism also kept up the pressure so that the NDA sticks to their "national agenda" and not

its own party line. All these, coupled with Mr. Vajpayee's own image and the concern to rid the country of another "hung parliament" resulted in the decisive victory. Congress failures were due to several reasons. Foremost among them was its failure to form an alternative government after it triggered the collapse of the NDA government in April last. Con-trarily. those pulled down the administration only squabbled among themselves rather than succeeding to give a new one.

Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress president, suddenly appeared keen for power but her

bid to become Prime Minister was scuttled by some opposition groups like, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadl party. Mrs. Gandhi who was earlier seen as reclusive and least bothered about power, showed unusual interest to become prime minister after formally Joining politics. But she did not succeed. The question that struck the mind of most Indians was: why was the opposition so desperate to bring down the government, and then, it failed to form own government and thus throwing the country into political uncertainty? After all. snap polls cause tremendous strains on the politico-economic systems.

Ine "Kargil" issue came as a boon for the NDA and the opposition found itself in dire straits to totally ignore the government's success in dealing with the conflict. Congress also chose wrong electoral allies like populists Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar and Ms. Jayaram Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, both of whom are mired in corruption charges. Both their parties fared badly in the polls compared to their performances last time. On the other hand, the secret of success of the NDA is the ability to jettison the trouble-making allies from the wobbly coalition. Earlier, Jayalalitha was an ally but she adopted a volte-face and was largely responsible for the fall of Vajpayee government. The split in the opposition like in the Janatal Dal, the dominant faction leaning to the NDA and we ik- ■ .ng of the Congress by pan. a ways by Manarastra heavy weight Sharad Pawar,

contributed considerably to the opposition debacle. Last but not the least, most Indians certainly liked to see Mr. Vajpayee as the Prime Minister instead of Mrs. Gandhi, who has not only been accused of having "foreign background", but also a novice in politics. The "third force" more or less retained its influences in certain pockets but also received jolts as the BJP-Trlnamul Congress alliance in its leftist citadel West Bengal. The Left Front lost some seats. However, the leftists could maintain its ascendancy in areas where they were known to be a force to reckon with.

While the story is happy for the Congress, there is some silver living for it. Mrs. Gandhi's own success from two constituencies spoke of her being accepted by people in politics despite orchestrated NDA onslaught on her foreign origin. She has got a berth in parliament in her maiden electoral bout and Is certain to be the leader of the opposition. The emergence of the Congress as the single largest party in Ma-harastra assembly gladdened it. The NDA despite its landslide victory may still feel the pressures from its allies for ministerial berths in the new cabinet. But it is in a position to ward off such pressures, as it is no longer with a wafer-thin majority in the house.

The Indians seemed tired of polls and looked for a stable government. The NDA is set for a long innings and expectedly full term unless unforeseen developments like major splits in the coalition make the scenario otherwise. But again, it's too early to comment on such a possibility.