**8Politicians are politicians. Their interests get mired in demands which no Prime Minister can accommodate. After some time the NDA partners are bound to be restive. One or two-member parties may not matter. But the bigger ones, if they revolt, can shake the government. I do see such an eventuality in two years' time.***

INDIAN voters are wary about national political parties. They have shown their preference for regional organisations. And the combination, the National Democratic Front, they have returned with a clear majority is because they want the Centre to reflect the local aspirations.

There is a lesson for the BJP. which has added only one seat to its previous tally of 181. The allies have swelled its numbers to around 296. Whatever else it means, it shows that though the body is that of the BJP. the regional parties are the tail wagging. Let not the body ignore the tail.

In fact, in the last three elections the regional parties, which may well be described as the third force, not the front, are emerging poll by poll. Together. they had 55 seats in 1991. But the number more than doubled in 1996 and went up to 131. In 1998. it rose to 150. They are about 200 this time. The percentage of votes has also risen, from 15 in 1991 to 24.63 In 1996 and to 29.66 in 1998. This time it is around 35.

The people have not given a fractured verdict, as BJP leader Pramod Mahajan complained in one of his programmes on TV. What they conveyed is that they did not have faith in one-party government. They do not want to put all their eggs in one basket. They want the role of more than one party at the Centre, expecting them to give their best and at the same time keeping an eye on each other.

If in the urban polling areas the turnout was low. less than the country's average of 52.3 per

cent, it was not because of poll fatigue but because of disillusionment. There were no ideological issues, nor issues which transcended the states. The parliamentary election was reduced to local needs of water, power, shelter or job. Yet the clear message the voters gave was that the Centre and the state governments have failed to sort out the basic problems of the people.

Elections became regional and even local. Pakistan's intrusion into Kargil touched them because they had seen dead bodies on the TV, a medium which played an important role. Their mind, primarily in urban areas, was somewhat influenced by Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin and the fact that she had not become an Indian national for 15 years.

The Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesn swept the polls because it was able to convey to the people that the policies the party was pursuing will carry them to the tomorrow of plenty. People in India are patient. All they want to see is whether that the path their government pursues would help them get roti. kapda and makan. The Shiro-mani Akali Dal in Punjab has been routed although water and power to farmers were made

available free. The Badal government had no dream to sell. Bihar is another example where Laloo Prasad Yadav betrayed the people's confidence and appropriated funds meant for the state's development.

The voters realise that their problems cannot be solved by state governments alone. They want the Centre to be a participant. The BJP has appreciated

the voters' wishes. It saw the point two years ago and constituted the NDA to join hands with some other parties. It even suspended part of its own agenda to accommodate them. It was a post-election alliance. This time the party entered into an alliance before the polls and prepared a common agenda. Not only that, the BJP assured its allies that it would form a coalition government, even if it had a majority on its own. understanding the people’s mood and the necessity of a wider

base.

The Congress is beginning to comprehend the point. Party president Sonia Gandhi has said that she is not averse to a coalition. Had she accepted the concept of coalition, she would have been the Prime Minister last year. Mulayam Singh refused to support her when she said that the Congress would go it alone in forming the govern-

ment. although its own strengtli was only 141 in the 545-mem-ber Lok Sabha.

This approach is as much wrong today as it was yesterday. How can the Congress, which has 30 seats less than its earlier tally of 141. expect the other parties to build its majority and then stay away, leaving the Congress to enjoy the fruits of government? The BJ. which has understood the mathematics of numbers, has rallied around it nearly 115 members from other parties to reach the figure of

198. though its own strength has increased from Its previous tally of 181 by only one seat.

However, surprising is that the Congress, despite its penances and promises, has not been able to get back the Muslims and Dalits, once its vote bank. They have stayed with Mulayam Singh’s Samaiwadi Party and Kanshi Ram's Bahu-jan Samaj Party. The BJP should ponder over its loss of 27 seats in UP because in the last three elections it has never secured less than 50 seats. The sabotage by chief minister Kalyan Singh, a BJP top leader, does not explain the defeat fully. Perhaps the Hindu vote, which had consolidated under the BJP after the Babri masjid demolition, does not find the party Hindu enough.

There is. however, no doubt that a coalition demands compromise. The BJP had to concede AIADMK chief Jay-alalitha's demands to survive. This time it may have to bend farther if there is more than one Jayalalitha. Already two of its allies. Om Prakash Chauta-la's Indian National Lok Dal of Haryana and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress have attacked the hike in diesel prices. The INLD got five and the TC eight seats.

The only way to fight such threats is to stand up to them as Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee did by saying eventually no to Jayalalitha s blackmailing. His government fell. But the voters in Tamil Nadu have taken revenge by reducing her Lok Sabha strength from 18 to 10. Were any member of the NDA to do so again, the people would probably punish that party. Because if the voters want a combination of parties to rule at the Centre, they would see to it that It is not harmed.

Still politicians are politicians. Their Interests get mired in demands which no Prime Minister can accommodate. After some time the NDA partners are bound to be restive. One or two-rnember parties may not matter. But the bigger ones, if they revolt, can shake the government. I do see such an eventuality in two years' time.

The Congress has already begun offering temptation by suggesting to some alliance members that it is willing to give support from outside to a secular front. None is yet heeding this type of talk because the Congress has too often destroyed the government alter extending its support. This sort of talk will go on. Hie Congress can't live without power.

The best way for Vajpayee to keep the NDA flock together is to perform. Apart from Kargil. he has very little to his credit. He must assert himself and remove the cobwebs of commu-nalism and complacency. He has no time to waste. People have put thefr faith in him. The first 100 days will show whether it is justified.