THERE have been some disquieting reports lately that fundamentalist extremism has taken root in the northeast Caucasus. Middle East extremists have reportedly moved into the region. Some quarters in Russian government suggested that Osama bin Laden himself might be funding the region's fundamentalist surge. The main beneficiaries are reportedly the Wahtbis — a term for a collection of Arab-backed fundamentalists In the region. Before the Chechen war. as reported by observers, there were very few of them: now Wahibls are said to make up a key part of the anti-Russian forces fighting In Dagestan.

By all accounts, the rebellion in Dagestan, a multiethnic region in the Caspian Sea. is led by two key figures. Both are fervent Islamic fundamentalists and were key commanders in the Chechen uprising that started in 1994. One is Shamil Basayev, a daring commander who fought with the current elected leader of Chechnya. The other key figure is Khattab. an ethnic Chechen whose family immigrated to Turkey In the 1920s and then to Jordan. He reportedly fought the Russians in Afghanistan, and In February 1995. he joined Basayev's separatists in Chechnya, setting up a camp to train young Muslims for guerilla war. By 1996. his exploits had made him famous. Khattab directs a

force that reportedly includes a significant number of mujahedin from Afghanistan. In fact. Chechchnya is reportedly becoming very much like Afghanistan; a base for Islamic radicalism and terrorism — and for drug smuggling and other criminal activities.

During the Chechen war. Basayev was admired both as a man and as a great commander and defender of his people, who suffered terribly in the Russian Invasion of Chechnya. The brutalizing effects of tne Chechen war. and the destruction of the economy, have contributed, as stated by observers, to the breakdown of Chechen society, as thousands of heavily armed unemployed young men seek revenge against Russia.

However, in their attack on Dagestan and the actions linked to them. Besayev and his comrades are said to be no longer acting as freedom fighters in defence of Chechnya. Their aim is reportedly to establish an Islamic state that incorporates Chechnya and Dagestan. As such, they are in direct opposition not only to Russia but also to the Chechen President. Gen Aslan Maskhadov. After leading the Chechen forces to victory against Russia, Maskhadov was elected President in January, 1997 but he has been following a policy of moderation.

The most ominous thing Is that the great majority of Dagestan's 34 nationalities op-

Cose the Chechens and Wa-abls. The animosity is not solely ethnic. Most Dagestanis follow local Sufi Islamic traditions and regard the fundamentalism as alien and frightening. The Dagestanl government of Mahomedali Mahomedov is strongly committed to keeping Dagestan in the Russian Federation. This is a completely different situation from that of Chechnya in December. 1994. when the great majority of the population rose up to resist the Russian invasion.

The real danger in Dagestan, according to analysts, is that Chechen and Islamist pressure may overturn the republic's extremely delicate and fragile ethnic balance. As anxiety Sows over the rebel attacks, the agestan government is arming its own ethnic supporters. These groups, however, are hostile to each other often and also have close links to organized crime.

The conflict in Chechnya was thought to be over three years ago with a truce in that breakaway Republic. But the conflict revived last month, when Chechen-led rebels invaded neighbouring Dagestan. They quickly withdrew after being pounded by Russian warplanes and artillery, only to Invade again early this month. On Sept 4. a bomb ripped through a Russian apartment building in

Dagestan. The explosion appeared to be the start of a sophisticated and ruthlessly executed terrorist campaign. Three deadly bombings followed — two in Moscow, and one in the southern city of Volgodonisk. In all. nearly 300 people were killed in 16 days of terror. And the Russian security services braced for more.

The authorities blamed Islamic extremists from the Caucasus region for the blasts and rounded up thousands of Chechens, ordering them to go back to Chechnya. So far. no one had claimed responsibility for most of the bombings, though a previously unknown Kup calling itself the Dagestan

eration Army said it had directed one of the Moscow attacks. Chechen leaders insisted they had no connection to any bombings.

The ailing Russian President Boris Yeltsin is so weak — and the political environment so vicious — that the bombings triggered wild speculation. Some rumours said the bombs were set on behalf of politicians who want to succeed Yeltsin. Others said the attacks were designed to provoke a state of emergency that would allow Yeltsin to step down in favour of Vladimir Putin, his Prime Minister — and designated successor — at the moment. Still other rumours said Yeltsin would fire Putin, replace him

with Aleksandr Lebed, the former general who negotiated the Chechen truce, and then cancel scheduled parliamentary and presidential elections.

There was not a shred of evidence for any of the conspiracy theories. That left Moscow confronting a more likely, and equally bleak, reality: a conflict with Islamic rebels has now spawned a terror campaign that has no precedent in modem Russia.

Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov has now split with the other key figure, fomenting trouble in Dagestan, Khattab, because of Maskhadov's relative moderation in imposing Islamic law. Maskhadov has disavowed any role In Dagestan, but he is plainly incapable of stopping Basayev's and Khattabs hit-and-run attacks across the Chechen border into Dagestan.

Washington is trying to supply Moscow with useful intelligence on the terror campaign which has made Muscovites angry and fearful. Already, thousands of Muscovites have moved out of their city apartments and are staying in country dachas. Millions more direct their rage against the large Chechen diaspora in Moscow.

In this context, Russian government prepared for new military operations against Chechnya. which is believed to be harbouring Islamic militants. Russia had bombed the Chechen

capital. Grozny, several times. But It has ruled out a return to all-out war against Chechnya, saying it would only attack targets it believed would be of help to Muslim guerillas who have twice attacked the neibouring province of Dagestan to try to set an Islamic state there. Russian officials have said air raids would continue as at present until they have destroyed the fighters, their bases and sites In Chechnya. They have already set up a "security zone' manned by three tiers of Russian troops inside Chechenlan territory.

There is. however, serious concern in many quarters that the guerilla war in the Caucasus and terrorism in Moscow could spiral into disaster, both for Russia and for the West. The bombing campaign that has all of Russia on edge could not be more serious. It highlights the insoluble dilemma the Kremlin faces in the Caucasus and risks destabilizing the entire Russian state. The appallingly high body count could spark a Russian backlash against Caucasian people in general, increasing ethnic hatred to Russia. and above all in the ethnically mixed North Caucasus itself The terror could also lead Russia into another bloody and disastrous intervention in Chechnya, whose indications have already emerged, in a misguided attempt to stop the guerilla attacks at their source.