***If the BNP does need to concentrate on a one-point movement, then that point needs to be articulated in parliament, and presented to the public for consideration at the next general elections.

Otherwise, the people would be hard-pressed to understand if there is any point in the four, five or any other set of points, let alone one point.***

THE municipal elections were supposed to provide the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) with its biggest opportunity so far to put the government on the defensive. The BNP cobbled together an alliance of all opposition parties in parliament, jointly announced a boycott of the polls and staged the longest hartal in the Awami Leagues 32-month rule in an effort to foil the elections.

The BNP and its allies had probably calculated that these would be enough to isolate the AL, keep voters at home and discredit the elections altogether. Isolated and discredited, the government would have been shaken to its foundation. The stage would then have been set for the opposition alliance to storm out of parliament and launch an all-out campaign to force an early resignation of the government.

That was the script. But events did not quite run according to the script, not least because the "cast of thousands" failed to show up in the streets, while the other "cast of millions" did turn up at the polling stations. In effect, the opposition’s poll boycott was voted out of existence.

The reasons behind the BNP's desire to force an early resignation of the government are still shrouded in mystery. The BNP would have the public believe that the government has failed to govern in every respect, and does not deserve to stay in power any longer.

While the AL's activities as a player in the political arena would make Machiavelli purr with delight, its performance in the field of governance has indeed left a lot to be desired. But the BNP's position is rather shaky, because performance of the government is open to in-

terpretation. Industrialists who fail to secure bank loans may think the economy has gone to the dogs: but rural families who have survived the floods of 1998 and not experienced any famine or epidemics may think other-

Either way. the final judgement on the government’s performance rests with the voting public whose perception, rather than the reality of the situation. is what will matter in the end. Such a judgement can only come through the ballot box. at the appropriate time.

What is certain is that the opposition alliance now has a tough task on its hands. Reviewing the wreckage of their 66-hour programme to foil the municipal elections, they appear hard-pressed to find an avenue forward. The public’s refusal to respond to their call for a boycott of the polls has left the opposition's agitation strategy in tatters. The BNP and its allies are now busy picking through the debris of the hartal, searching for clues as to what went wrong.

The boycott debacle has left the opposition with severely limited options. Nearly a week has passed since the end of the polls, but the opposition is yet to come up with a programme to follow up its poll boycott and hartal actions of Feb 23-25. With every passing day. the heat in the political atmosphere dissipates. making it more and more difficult for the opposition to regroup and re-launch their ill-fated movement.

So far, the opposition appears to be sticking to its four

point demands (which are. in fact. five). They have repeated their threats to launch a one-point movement to topple the government unless their four or five points were met. But there Is, as yet. no clear sign as to what str&tegy the BNP would adopt in order to achieve the four points plus one. or go for just the one. There is a good reason why this is so.

When a movement succeeds or is seen to be heading for success. then it unites the party, with all types of leaders clamouring to get on board and claim credit. The follow up actions come rapidly, building on the success of the immediate past. The strike is made while the iron is still hot.

But when a movement is seen to have been a disaster, then follow-ups are hard to come by. There is a great deal of soul-searching and fingerpointing. The party is thrown into a severe dilemma. One side demands immediate, tougher actions to overcome the failures of the previous programmes, while the other hesitates, preferring to weigh up the cost of agitation against possible gains from a moderate approach.

The BNP contains such poles within itself, and there are important leaders to back up both

sides of the argument. But the BNP has also allied itself with small, more rabidly right-wing parties, which have little stake in the functioning of parliament or political stability under the AL government. These elements are no doubt piling up the pressure on Khaleda Zia to stick to agitation and turn away from a negotiated settlement.

There is a great deal of talk

about marches, demonstrations and siege programmes. But whether these would be part of a serious movement, or just programmes to give the illusion of agitation, remains to be seen. In the peculiar world of Bangladeshi politics, opposition parties often feel it necessary to blow hot in order to keep up the morale of the faithful. They may even simply go through the motions of militant posturing, even when public response to such programmes is found to be non-existent.

The time of the year is also acting against a full-blooded action programme. The month-long Secondary School Certificate examinations start tomorrow. and the Eid-ul Azha holidays are due in the last week of the month. All these would make hartals or programmes with potential to generate vio-

lence in the streets a high risk public relations exercise, as well as being self-defeating political blunders.

The BNP's failure to make its agitation have any effect on government resolve to go ahead with the municipal polls has undoubtedly had a demoralising effect within the party. On the other hand, the people's response to the polls has strengthened Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s hands.

With over 50 years of experience behind it. the AL is an astute political player. Even before the hartals were over. Hasina moved to seize the initiative. went into a higher gear and launched a support mobilisation campaign in Dhaka and Chittagong. The question was. What Hasina would do with the higher ground she had captured. Would she stoke up the fires of confrontation and run the BNP into the ground, or would she reduce the temperature, open up to the opposition and try for a negotiated peace?

Judging by events of the past few days, It appears Hasina has chosen the wiser path. Awami League leaders have already spoken about their readiness to open a dialogue with the opposition. and it is likely that Hasina would take a personal initiative in this regard. What remains to be seen is whether the AL would try to set the agenda beforehand, and what the response of the BNP would be.

Khaleda Zia appears to be taking a tough stance on talks. She has told the BBC in an interview that she would not sit

down for talks unless results of the municipal polls were cancelled first. She knows very well this would be impossible for the government to even consider. Not surprisingly. AL leaders have warned the BNP against setting preconditions for talks.

The past few weeks should have given both sides ample food for thought. Hasina needed to realise that a strategy based on confronting agitation with counter-agitation only alienates both her government and party from the people. This would not bode well for the future. But if she is sincere about the initiative to open a dialogue with the opposition, without setting an agenda beforehand, then one would have to assume that the AL leader has learnt the lessons well and is prepared to act accordingly.

Khaleda Zia has already made one gigantic mistake, by trying to force the public to deliver a verdict against the government in the streets. The lesson of the municipal polls is that, if she persists with her efforts, then the verdict may not go the way she hopes. If Khaleda is astute enough to learn the lessons of the past few weeks, then she would realise that her party has much to gain from engaging in dialogue, making its presence felt in parliament and expending efforts in strengthening its organisational and support bases at the grassroots.

If the BNP does need to concentrate on a one-point movement. then that point needs to be articulated in parliament, 'and presented to the public for consideration at the next general elections. Otherwise, the people would be hard-pressed to understand if there is any point in the four, five Or any other set of points, let alone one point.