_ An exclusive preserve of Nigeria's wealthy, Victoria Island is home to some of the most elite real estate inn

Lagos. But the residents' fortunes arfe not preventing the rapid erosion of the island, which may be well on3 the way to sinking below the sea.THE Atlantic Ocean is threa-tening to dislodge Nigeria's rich and affluent from their mansions on Victoria Island, the country's choicest real estate off the Lagos

Although coastal erosion has been a perennial problem for the island, which only became habitable after its marshland was drained in the 30s and 40s. the problem has assumed a worrisome dimensions in recent times.

Since last June when the ocean overflowed its banks following a torrential rain, flooding the island for the umpteenth time in recent years, sending visitors scampering and holding residents captive in water-logged homes, an old debate about the safety of Victoria Island has been resurrected.

With the rainy season yet to come to an end. VI residents look on with trepidation any time the clouds darken and rain threatens to fall. Meterologists say the island is likely to experience much more flooding before the year ends.

Already some residents have tired of the recurring flood and have made plans to move out. Most believe that the advantages of staying in the elite island — which will house the residence of the State President once civilian elections are complete next year — outweigh the risks, but even they are worried about the future.

Others who have shown worry over coastal erosion are. the estate developers: apparently for fear of residents fleeing with their deep, and much-prized. pockets.

The crux of the long-standing problem of Victoria Island during every rainy season is the rising sea level as a result of global warming.

A hundred years ago. the fine white sands of Victoria Island's Bar Beach, arguably Nigeria's most popular, stretched for about 1.2 kilometres. Today the beach has been eaten away to less than 500 metres wide.

Experts say the rapid erosion of the island and indeed most of Lagos coastline is attributable to two breakwaters known as the "east and west moles" which the colonial British

government constructed

:tween 1908 and 1912. The moles were built to protect Lagos' harbour from the fierce action of the waves and to prevent sand from entering the deeply dredged harbour on the ocean surge.

Unfortunately, the harbour's gain was Victoria Island's loss. The moles altered the balance between the Lagos coast's rate of erosion and the rate at which ocean sediments are deposited, according to environmentalist Seun Ogunseitan.

To check the rate of erosion, the authorities have come up with a beach nourishment strategy. Since 1963. 17 million cubic metres of sand have been dumped on Bar Beach. That's enough to bury a football pitch more than two kilometres deep in sand.

The measure has however proved ineffective, as the ocean continue to swallow beach-land at the rate of five metres a year. Today the ocean is barely more than 40 metres from the island which is currently believed to be less than half a metre below sea level.

Larry Awosika. an oceanographer at the Nigerian Institute of oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) based on Victoria Island, argues that beach nourishment alone cannot curb the ocean surge.

Instead he suggests a multipronged approach? namely consisting of raising the beach to about two metres above the high-water level, extending the beach width by no less than 100 metres from the shoreline and constructing offshore breakwaters to dampen the waves' energy before they reach the shoreline.

"Aside from periodic ocean surge, the low lying nature of Bar Beach, blocked drains and the low heads of the drainage channels also contribute to the flooding of Victoria Island." Awosika said.

Awosika also calls for the constructing new devices called "groins" which help trap eroded sediments. He says present groins do not extend long enough into the area where currents are actively transporting sediments away.

He also proposes clearing

storm drainage channels on the island regularly and increasing the capacity of old drainage channels.

A contract was signed by the late President. General Sani Abacha. to use stonework to reinforce the breakwaters. In theory, the work should start after the rainy season finishes In late November.

But government officials say no action beyond annual sand nourishment can be taken for now because the recommendations suggested by experts involve a huge financial outlay.

The cost of constructing breakwaters is enormous and government does not have the funds for it now," says a top government engineer.

Professor Benjamin Akpati, former director of NIOMR. cautions people who call for a permanent solution to the problem. He says available measures can only minimise the impact on Nigeria’s coastline, as the ocean surge is a natural phenomenon that cannot be

prevented.

"When you come to the coastline, the word permanent' has no meaning" Akpati said. 'The sea level is rising. Anything that is permanent today is not permanent tomorrow and the rising sea level is a global phenomenon. With time, this place (Victoria Island) where you and I are will be under the

It leaves many wondering whether Victoria Island will go under by the year 2006. as predicted six years ago by 1 C IJomah. a Nigerian professor of sociology. Is the apocalypse around the corner for Victoria Island, the exclusive preserve of Nigeria's rich and mighty?

— Gemini News

The writer is a member of the editorial board of 'The Punch Newspapers' and a well known environmental reporter in Nigeria. He was last year selected as the 1997 environmental reporter of the year in Nigeria.