Outlook of flood: The flood is rising in all the three major rivers in the country. The Brahmaputra at Noonkhawa the most upstream point in Bangladesh rose by 10 cm on 7/9/98. The trend showed that the increase was likely to continue for at least another day i.e. 8/9/98. This effect will reach SirajganJ by about 10/9/98. Witfi present rate of

rise Sirajganj Is likely to attain' a level of 14.86 metre by 10/9/98. This level is 18 cm above the level on 7/9/98 and 26 cm below 1998-flood level at Sirajganj.

Dhaka on the Buriganga is likely to strike the peak on 13/9/98 at 7.29 metre i.e. a rise of 46 cm above the level on 7/9/98 and only 29 cm below 1988-flood level.

Now it is well recognised that flood distress is caused not only by peak flood level but also by duration above danger level. Duration above danger level as on 7/9/98 has crossed 1988

flood duration at Bahadurabad. Sirajganj and Dhaka in the above selected list. At Hardinge Bridge the duration will cross 1988 flood duration by next few days. But it is unlikely the du-

ration will cross 1988 flood duration at Bhairab Bazar.

Flood this year has crossed recorded highest flood level (1910-96) at Hardinge Bridge and Is still rising. At Rajshahi

the 1988 flood is the 16th flood from the highest point of view and 1987 flood is 3rd highest flood (19.46) and has been exceeded by this year’s flood (19.64) and is still rising. From the trend it is guessed the Ganges will be attaining its peak soon within days and so the Meghna at Bhairab Bazar.

So this is an unprecedented synchronisation of flood peak.

In 1988 the Hardinge Bridge (2/9/88) and Bahadurabad (30/8/88) reached their peak within 3 days but Bhairab Bazar peak (9/10/88) was weeks away even though between 30/8/88 and 2/9/88 Bhairab Bazar was maintaining a very high flood level between 7.40 and 7.45 metre.

By meter -days-above-DL a combined flood index (recently proposed by the writer) this

Sear's flood will cross 1988 ood distress within days even though the flood will be receding.

As the flood recedes, it will be a good exercise to review the design flood level of different embankments (flood dikes, road embankments and railway embankments) and initiate follow up actions.

It may be of interest to look at the superimposed water level hydrographs (1988 and 1998) of Dhaka and Sirajganj.