***A greater upheaval in South Asia may unfold in near future and one may point fingers at India’s nuclear tests which have reverberated in unforeseen directions... one has to take a long term and broad view of the consequences of such nuclear tests that may impinge on the political, economic and social life in South Asia.***

INDIA, while conducting the nuclear tests ( May 11 & 13), made it clear that its security concerns are not limited to Pakistan or to South Asian region. Prior to the tests India's Defence Minister bluntly identified China as the number one strategic threat to India. It is safe to conclude that India's nuclear tests was chiefly to match China's nuclear arsenal with Pakistan playing only a subsidiary role.

1 would argue that India must be worried at the turn of recent events In Pakistan. An unstable Taliban style of government is the least India wants in Pakistan. India may have belatedly realised that the occurrences In Pakistan which are likely to have impacts on India were a chain of events that followed after it conducted the nuclear tests early May this Ear. Why do I hold this view ?

t me discuss it.

First, India's nuclear tests propelled Pakistan to hold its tests (28 & 30 May). Pakistan was placed into a -corner" by the conduct of nuclear devices by India. From the security perspective. India's action was seen by Pakistan to have changed the balance of power in South Asia to its detriment. One could argue that Pakistan would not have openly and unilaterally proceeded to nuclear path if India did not in the first Instance explode its nuclear devices.

It is an admitted fact that India has superiority over Pakistan in conventional weapons. If during the conventional armed conflict India is able to inflict a fatal blow on Pakistan. Pakistan claims that it reserves the right to use nuclear option. That may be the com-

pelling reason why Pakistan does not agree to conclude a "no-first use" agreement with India, though it is willing to enter into a much wider non-aggresslon or no war pact with India.

Second, the sanctions slammed on Pakistan following the nuclear tests have crippling effects on its economy. Its national reserves are said to have dwindled to about US$500 million and its currency has devalued considerably, leading to possible run-away inflation in the country. The international Monetary Fund's reported refusal to lend USS 1.6 billion to Pakistan is expected to worsen its economy. Further Pakistan is likely to default on sovereign debt unless it obtains loans from Islamic Bank and Islamic countries. The economic crisis may lead to political instability in Pakistan which will be staring India In the face. It is intriguing to note that there is a view that India wants sanctions lo be lifted from Pakistan so that its st.i bility is not rocked by Its weakening economy.

Third, the Talibans whose ideological dispositions and draconian laws will appear to have gradual impact on the domestic scene In Pakistan as it continues to face a deepening economic crisis. The people in general . having been frustrated with the market economy and globalisation, are likely to turn

to religious orthodoxy which is perceived to be a panacea to all modern day evils. The recently (29 August) proposed 15th amendment to Pakistan's Constitution empowering the government to take necessary steps to enforce Islamic laws is an indication of this trend.

A view prevails that the political leaderships In Pakistan in an environment of severe economic problems have been under tremendous political pressure from religious parties to Introduce more strict Islamic laws and regulations. To satisfy them, it appears that the leaders declared that a solution to problems faced by Pakistan-should be addressed by adhering scrupulously to the tenets of Islam and tabled the amendment of the Constitution.

Put simply, this means that the directions of the government may include stressing observance of daily prayers, an improved system of Zakat (charity) as well as steps to suppress "evil practices" in Pakistan. India is naturally alarmed by the rise of theocracy in Pakistan. India's ruling party BJP cannot absolve itself from the rise of militant views as BJP's Ideology of "one nation, one people and one reli-Son" appears to be an added ctor to growing Islamlsation in Pakistan.

Fourth, Pakistan is In possession of nuclear warheads and missiles. It may not be in-

correct to suggest that the domestic Instability may often lead the political leaders to plunge in misadventure that deflects the public from its Internal trouble. It appears to be uncomfortable to India that a "theocratic" neighbour will have nuclear capability. More so when the territorial dispute of Kashmir between the two countries remains unresolved. Indian-administered Kashmir is under attack by Muslim militants. many of whom are allegedly trained In Afghanistan. This appears to be a matter of great concern for India.

Fifth. Pakistan’s support to the Talibans appears to have alienated Iran and the Central Asian Muslim Republics bordering Afghanistan. Russia is also uncomfortable with the Talibans and does not wish to see the spill-over effect of the militant form of Islam at the periphery of the Russian Federation. A view prevails that the Talibans may not be wholly successful In their fight against the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance as Iran. Russia and the Central Asian Republics are likely to restrain the power of the Talibans by providing material assistance to Northern Alliance. Observers believe that we have not seen the end of fighting in Afghanistan. It could be the beginning of a regional war.

The military exercise (codenamed Ashura-3) by Iran

on 1st September with its 70,000-troops . tanks, aircraft and medium range SAM-6 missiles on the border of Afghanistan appears to send a strong signal to the Talibans that they are not to be allowed to do whatever they wish in Afghanistan. It is reported that Iran's diplomats stationed in Mazar-e-Sharif were captured (8 August) and transferred to Kandhahar and thereafter alleged to have been killed by the Talibans. Iran does not believe that their diplomats were killed and holds the Talibans responsible for their safety.

This ugly incident has severely strained Iran’s relations with both the Talibans and Pakistan. Iran is reported to be annoyed with Pakistan which was believed to have assured Iran that nothing untoward would happen to Iranian diplomats. This appears not to be the case. Iran claimed that it had the right to rescue the diplomats if the Talibans did not release them Immediately. The military exercises by Tehran have unnerved the Talibans who asked for UN or OIC ( Organisation of Islamic Conference) intervention to ease tensions with Iran.

Finally, if the Talibans are not successful in controlling the whole territory of Afghanistan , they will not be able to obtain recognition from international community. As a result, there is a view that Tal-

ibans will have their influence prevail In Pakistan with the same Islamic orthodox dispositions and laws. Many political analysts believe that a Taliban style of government may emerge sooner or later in Pakistan if economic woes persists in the country.

Conclusion

A prosperous, moderate and stable Pakistan is beneficial to India and to the South Asian region. It appears that BJP-led government in India did not envisage that its tests would trigger the present course of events in Pakistan. The US military strikes on Afghanistan (21 August) have further encouraged the Islamic militants both within Pakistan and Afghanistan to pursue their mission vigorously and in a crippling economic environment this form of Islam appears to attract the average restive person in Pakistan. Neither India nor the international community as a whole has any leverage with the Talibans or with the Islamic militants in Pakistan.

Let me reflect for a moment on a more cynical view: that a greater upheaval in South Asia may unfold in near future and one may point fingers at India's nuclear tests which have reverberated in unforeseen directions. I would argue that one has to take a long term and broad view of the consequences of the nuclear tests that may impinge on the political, economic and social life in South Asia. India appeared not to have done so. This is a sad conclusion for India's friends to reach.

The writer Is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN in Geneva.