DARK clouds of uncertainty still beset the future of Nigeria. After four years in power, Gen. Sani Abacha. 54. the country's brutish dictator, died reportedly on June 8. For millions of Nigerians, it was as if heavens had finally heeded their misery. The streets, outdoor markets and college campuses of Lagos came alive with expressions of joy.

The next day, Nigeria's Provisional Ruling Council, made up 29 top military officers, swore in a new head of state. Maj Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar. 56. Abacha's chief of the defense staff. Abubakar urged political exiles to return home and called for national unity. He also pledged that the military, which has ruled Africa's most populous nation for 28 of the 38 years since independence from Britain, would turn over power to civilians through elections.

Abacha had also promised such a transition but rigged the process so he'd be sole candidate. Many Nigerians despaired of real political change from a military clique perpetually making promise of a "transition to democracy."

After Mashood Abiola won the free and fair election in 1993, Gen. Abacha abrogated the election result, jailed Abiola and nearly 60 other leaders. He also sent Into exile and imprisoned political leaders, besides cultural and labour figures as well. Seizing power in a bloodless coup, he did not hesitate to shed blood. Assassinations and executions removed whatever he believed was a threat to his regime. What earned him great infamy was the execution of playwright activist Ken Sara Wiwa along with eight other Ogoni activists despite appeals

for clemency from the world.

There were other aspects of Nigeria's woes. Sitting stop Nigeria's vast oil wealth, its chief export. Abacha's inept and corrupt rule pushed the poverty level of the country from 41 per cent in 1992 to about 80 per cent at present.

According to political analysts. the reprehensible Abacha has unknowingly bequeathed his successor a brilliant opportunity to free Nigeria from military rule. First, his very unpopularity makes it difficult for another soldier to take power and stay there. Second. General Abacha damaged and divided centres of power that were previously untouchable. He did not, like former military rulers. Juggle political factions but simply bought or crushed anyone who posed a threat. So the once-sacred cow of Nigerian politics now becomes vulnerable.

Third, he turned Nigeria into an international outlaw, at least in American and European eyes. Politics in Nigeria became the art of stealing-chopping as it was called. According to observers. General Abubakar now has a golden chance to exploit the good will that the West is ready to give to a country that It sees not just as big oil producer, but as an international power in an unstable region.

It is, however, generally felt that Nigeria would not be easy to democratise some of the exiled leaders of the "democratic" opposition were only out because General Abacha turned them down for jobs. It may be hard, but necessary, for the handful of Nigerians who have really suffered for their democratic

princlples to sit down with such people. Over 90 per cent of eligible voters boycotted this year's election in a show of unity not seen since Independence days among the 250 tribes that are often at loggerheads with one another and who make up the 105 million Nigerian nation.

The visit by the Pope earlier had kindled a hope Abacha might keep his promise to hand over power to a civilian administration through free and fair elections as Abacha repeated his previous promises during the papal visit in a loud voice. But it soon became clear Abacha had little interest in helping to build the democratic process in a country which has seen one military coup after another since the collapse of the civilian government following the Biafran civil war in 1967.

Abacha's death has thrust Nigeria deeper into political uncertainty. World powers and Nigerian opposition leaders have urged the ruling clique to ensure democracy is given a chance in the former British colony. The US State Department had been critical of Abacha's arrangements for the election earlier fixed for August and now wanted to see a genuine transition to civilian rule. A White House spokesman said: "Our hope, among others, would be that an accountable civilian government that is able to lead tie Nigerian people will emerge from what has been a veiy horrific episode in which fundamental rights have been suspended." The European Union called for an accountable civilian government that will respect

human rights.

Opposition groups in ethnically divided Nigeria's Yoruba's south-west had said they wanted detained local millionaire Moshood Abiola, the presumed winner of annulled 1993 elections, made president of a national unity government. But despite opposition warnings that they would not accept another military ruler, few political analysts had expected Abiola to be appointed.

Through the long period of military misrule. Nigerian institutions have been discredited and in a state of collapse. Restoring them — and faith in government itself — would have to precede an election. Only a government that has a modicum of respect from its people can hold an election whose results would be accepted.

It was earlier decided that election would be held on August 1st. In this context, the deadline for handover to civilian rule has been next October. General Abubakar will have to move fast to meet the deadline.

In the opinion of political analysts, if a transitional government could be set up with Abiola running the country, General Abubakar's task would be to act as its guarantor and try to prise military ftgers from the tills and levers of power. If this were undertaken honestly, as viewed by the analysts, and Nigerians were able to see some improvement to their lives, this disillusioned country might be readier to take government— and an election — seriously. The fond hope is that with Abacha's demise, Nigerians should be in a position to build up a democratic system of governance that can perpetuate Itself.