***Political analysts feel that the BJP in power and the BJP in opposition may make a lot of difference as far asits approach on various subjects is concerned.***

THE Indian elections are round the corner, and the heat and sound of the electioneering are palpable across the vast country. The polling will take place for several days in the length and breadth of the country sometime between the third week of February and the first week of March so that the new lower house of parliament (Lokshaba) is constituted by March 15. The election commission will announce the firm dates of the polls shortly. But the major political parties or groups vying for power in the largest democracy of the world have already swung into election campaign and none wants to be seen as lagging behind another in this regard. They are holding their conclaves to draw up strategies and also finalise the nomination of their party candidates. In the process, this is the time for alignment or realignment of the political forces keeping their eyes on the coming polls.

The political parties are busy in having open as well as secret talks with different fellow political organisations where they could reach political or at least election understanding. This has become more serious since experiences have shown that India is unlikely to have any party or group enjoying absolute majority in the 545-member lower house in the coming elections and another hung parliament appears a certainty unless the voters swing In the last phase of the electioneering for a decisive mandate for a particular party or group. While no clear winner In the polls is expected which means

no party will secure the number of the seats that would enable it to govern the nation by itself, none can also totally rule out that no party will ever get this crucial absolute majority. In any case, one party or group has to be the single largest group in the new parliament even if none secures an absolute majority and in this situation the single largest parliamentary party will, in all probability, get the first chance to form the government. Thus the key players of the political spectrum are seeking to enlarge their electoral strength from the preelection condition so that they will have the advantage to form the new government. As such it is no surprising that new and newer alliances are cropping up in the Indian political scene and at times these alliances seem utterly strange because such alignment appeared somewhat inconceivable even a few days ago.

When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) goes into an electoral understanding with the All India Anna DKM in the southern Tamil Nadu state or this party and the Janata Dal faction of late Orissa heavyweight Biju Patnaik coming closer or more bizzare as it may . Syed Abdullah Bukhari, son of the Shahi Imam of Delhi’s

Jame mosque, throwing his support for the BJP which is hitherto known for its extreme communal overtones — this may initially come as a surprise to many or even shock to some, but none should really take this as a kind of bolt from the blue or something like totally unthinkable in politics. Because nothing is permanent in politics and adjustments or understandings are possible between diametrically divergent groups based on the conditions and peculiarities of the ground realities. And this more happens when no single party or group can command the required majority necessary to form a government either in centre or any state in India. As such, when the BJP succeeds in taking away a sizeable number of members from its arch rival Congress in the largest Uttar Pradesh state to help survive the state government, this might have sent tremors down the spines of the Congress but should not be construed as a total surprise in politics. When the once avowed socialists like George Fernandes and others favour communal BJP in preference to secular Congress, this too seems strange but once again politics is a game of unpredictability. Even when the firebrand woman Congress

leader in the West Bengal state Mamta Banerjee quits the party and expresses desire for electoral adjustments in the state with the BJP, this may appear to shatter all calculations of the political pattern. Nevertheless, all are a part of the game.

As the pre-election scenario in India is getting more and more Interesting and also complicated. there Is no denying that the BJP is emerging as the most potential force to gain power through the coming polls. The party has shot into prominence from relative obscurity within a short span of hardly ten to twelve years and now seems well set to be in power after the next elections. Not that the party was not In power as it did govern India but only for the briefest period in country's history — for twelve days — after the last general elections by dint of its being the largest party following the balloting.

The political organisation that has spread its influence in quick time, particularly in the Hindi heartland which constitutes bulk of the members in the lower house, is now making a desperate attempt to come to power with such a parliamentary strength so that it can remain in power for a reasonable longer period if not for the en-

tire five-year term. BJP knows its limitations like reservations by the minorities for the party and as such it Is wooing the Muslims and other minority groups. The party lost all sympathy of the Muslims when its state government in the Uttar Pradesh a few years ago virtually presided over the demolition of the. "Babri mosque" in Ayodhya which BJP and other religion-based organisations claim was built on the birth place of Hindu God Rama. The developments that followed sent the state government packing but the party appeared as more aggressive on the Hindu nationalism. But with the new elections drawing nearer, the BJP has changed its strategy and is seeking to expand its support base. It knows that only emerging as the single largest parliamentary group will not be enough for being catapulted to power as it happened last time and as such it needs supports from outside its traditional vote bank as well.

The BJP has one advantage despite its communal character and It is a liberal and attractive leader like. Atal Bihari Vajpayee. who is being projected as the Prime Minister should the party come to power. He was the Prime Minister when his party formed the government in early 1996 following elections. The BJP organised a convention for the Muslim leaders no sooner the previous lower house was dissolved and fresh election dates announced, and assured the Muslims that they have nothing to fear from this organisation. It has succeeded in drawing support from the Muslims to some extent by this time like former state minister and national hockey star Aslam Sher Khan of Bhopal Joining the organisation and the son of the Imam of the Jame Mosque of Delhi extending support for Mr Vajpayee.

BJP has taken this move in a very calculated manner as its policy makers made it out that in. the last elections it lost in thirty to forty seats by narrow margin and might have won these seats if the party secured

only twenty per cent of the Muslim votes in those constituencies. BJP's move is to soften the attitude of this party towards Muslims and in the process win their confidence. As such, during the recent party convention in Orissa. BJP made no references to its commitment to build the "Ram temple" at the site where "Babri mosque" was demolished. At the same time it is also sparing no efforts to win unlikely friends as it has already done in the Tamil Nadu by aligning' with the former chief minister charistmatic Ms Jayalalitha and the son of late Biju Patnaik in Orissa. It has already set up Sood ties in the Sikhs' "Akali lal" in Punjab and the Samata Party in Bihar. Several former senior army officers have also joined the organisation. "We are receiving good response from all quarters including the minorities" said party spokesperson Ms Sushma Swaraj.

However, everything cannot be fine with the BJP and there are also thorn in the bed of roses. Only some individuals' support may not necessarily help win the Muslims' confidence for the organisation because it had also before Muslim leaders like Sekandar Bakth and Arif Beg in its fold but this did not help much in winning minority votes. Besides, the popularity of the BJP stems from its soild communal base which it does not want to erode at the cost of wooing the Muslims too much. So the party is not also abandoning its "Hin-duvata" campeign but is showing more accomodation with the Muslims. Political analysts feel that the BJP in power and the BJP in opposition may make a lot of difference as far as its approach on various subjects is concerned.

It also depends on how much its two main electoral rivals — the Congress and the 15-party coalition United Front — shape up before polls. However, the polarisation so far taken place in India has helped the BJP. It remains to be seen how far the party can improve its possibilities to come stronger through the coming polls. Tne regional parties are playing an important role in the Indian politics as gone are the days of single party taking command at the centre and also in most of the states. BJP is also seeking supports of the regional groups. The party is making a desperate bid to storm into power in India.