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Asia's currency crisis to persist in '98, predict analysts
SINGAPORE, Dec 29: Asia's financial turmpil enters Jto sixth month ttys week amid forecasts that the region's currency meltdown will persist in 1998 as economies contract, governments tighten spending and people put up with higher interest rates, reports AFP.
The Chinese Calendar's Year of the Tiger could see Japan. South Korea. Indonesia and Thailand engulfed in a biting recession and little growth forecast for the economies of Malaysia, the Philippines and even Singapore, analysts said.
While governments battle inflation — due to galloping costs suffered by the sharp erosion in their currency values — and unemployment stemming from business closures, they would at the same time beef up exports for speedy recovery, according to the analysts.
They believes that pressure on the troubled Asian currencies would ease by the middle of 1998 when markets shift their focus to Europe where efforts to forge a single euro currency would take centrestage.
"The second half of 1998 is likely to be a period of consolidation for many Asian currencies." said Philip Wee. regional treasury economist with Standard Chartered in Singapore.
Wee said during that period, he expected more evidence of the export-cycle picking up in Asia where currencies have devalued rapidly, adding that governments would encourage investments that generate foreign exchange earnings as opposed to those that encourage consumer imports.
The belt-tightening in Asia in 1998 will discourage foreign direct investments aimed at exploiting the domestic consumer markets or significant foreign portfolio flows seeking to derive capital gains in the asset markets." he said.
The meltdown in the Asian currencies had followed plunges
in stock and property markets m, the region ,gpd snpwballlng of debts leading • o -bankruptcies and winding down—of companies. banks and industries.
"The debts are stacking up and most of them are unhedged. Against this scenario, we could possibly see near zero growth in Indonesia. Just as in South Korea and Thailand.” said Jimmy Koh, regional economist with British financial house IDEA.
Analysts warn that if currencies, especially those of South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia — the three econortjies that have come under the belt of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — continue to siMB, a debt moratorium would be the only answer.
If they default on their foreign debt and declare a moratorium, creditors would have to form a consortium to negotiate a repayment schedule.
Asia's currency crisis was sparked off by Thailand's de facto devaluation of its baht on July 2 and spread to neighbouring Southeast Asian countries and engulfed North Asia as well.
Since July 2. the US dollar has appreciated by a staggering 120 per cent against the Indonesia rupiah. 84 per cent against the Thai baht, 53 per cent against the Malaysian ringgit, 52 per cent against the Phllip-pine peso and 17 per cent against the Singapore dollar.
The greenback had chalked up 65 per cent against the Korean won since September 15.
Although there was relief after the IMF announced a speed-up of aid to South Korea last week following a 60-bil-lion-dollar bailout pledge for the ailing economy, analysts warn the South Korean finance sector is still In trouble.
”1 think the action by the IMF last week Underscores the desperate state of South Korean finances," said David Cohen, analyst with US research house
Standard and'Poor's in Singa-P^phen said basetftm preliminary figures. South Korea notched a surplus in the current account for the second month running in December and "this gives some hope and shows some progress."
If they can simply not suffer a big capital outflow, this can help resolve their problem." he