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IMF slashes its '98 global growth forecast
WASHINGTON, Dec 22: The IMF yesterday slashed its 1998 global growth forecast from 4.3 to 3.5 per cent to reflect the •Asian financial crisis and warned that people in parts of the region were in for a painful readjustment, says AFP.
The growth slowdown weTe going to see in Southeast Asia is going to have a decidedly negative short-term impact," Michael Mussa. head of the research department at the International Monetary Fund, said here.
"Domestic demand is going to turn negative —18 to 20 per cent below trend. And that means consumption and investment are going to be very adversely affected.
"Undoubtedly, people are going to feel the pain of this readjustment."
Mussa was commenting on an interim world economic outlook report that was issued to assess the impact of the near collapse of several once-booming economies in Asia.
The report revises predictions made by the IMF in its
semiannual outlook which last appeared in October.
The last tie an interim assessment was deemed necessary was in the summer of 1992. following an exchange rate crisis tn Europe. Mussa said.
The slowdown will be less acute among major industrialised countries, buoyed by continued good performances in the United States and the European Union, the study showed.
Output in the world's princi-f>al industrial powers will fall rom 2.5 per cent In 1996 to 2.3 per cent next year, according to the IMF, which in October had forecast growth of 2.5 per cent
In the United States, growth is now seen by the IMF to increase by 2.4 per cent next year, compared with 2 8 per cent in 1996 and down from 2.6 per cent predicted in October.
Expansion in Japan, plagued by sluggish demand corporate debts and declining confidence will be limited to 1.1 per cent in 1998 rather than 2.1 per cent predicted by the IMF in October.
Growth in Japan was 3.9 per
cent in 1996
The most dramatic downward revisions from 1998 are for growth in East and South-
Projected earlier by the IMF to enjoy a 3.5 per cent expansion in gross domestic product. Thailand can now look* forward to stagnation next year
Growth forecasts issued in October for Indonesia were revised from 6.2 per cent to two per cent, from 6.5 to 2.5 per cent in Malaysia, from six per cent to 2.5 in Korea and from five to 3.8 per cent in the Philippines.
The authors of the IMF study warned that "considerable uncertainty remains about the depth and duration of the crisis, and described their analysis as "cautiously optimistic."
But they added that as momentum In Northern America and Western Europe appears likely to be well sustained in the period ahead the threat to global growth from the present crisis is reasonably limited."
Mussa said chances that afflicted economies of Asia would rebound were likewise solid.
"I think there's every reason to believe that they can return, after a period of adjustment of a year or so, to the type of longer-run average performance that has characterised the past two decades," he maintained.
In the near-future according to the IMF. the principal risk comes from Japan where an intensification in an economic slow down could further harm export prospects of neighbouring countries.
To contain the damage done so far. the IMF made the following recommendations to Asian policy makers:
— Fiscal policy must remain public spending while avoiding undue compression" of growthinducing demand.
— Monetary policies should be kept firm to head off excessive exchange rate depreciation.
— Insolvent financial institutions need to be shut down and those that are still viable restructured.
— Public and corporate governance should be transparent and accountable.
The interim outlook admitted that the IMF had been "too optimistic" in its earlier projections but stressed that warnings had indeed been issued to the endangered economies.
The problem, it said. Is that "when economic conditions remain generally good ... it is easy to Believe that the good